MLB Best Bets Today May 12

For a Monday, we have a busy evening on the diamond. We’ll see if it’s worth the wait, as those usual workday distractions aren’t on the schedule as it will be all night games to start the week, but we do have 11 of them. There are a lot of big favorites on today’s card, as the Phillies, Mets, Braves, Cubs, Rangers, and Padres are all -160 or higher.

We should get all 11 games completed, but there is some hovering rain in a few places, so keep an eye on the forecast as things get closer, just to see if you need to make any last-minute adjustments.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for May 12:

Milwaukee Brewers (-125, 8.5) at Cleveland Guardians

6:10 p.m. ET

After nearly getting shut out in front of a sellout crowd on Saturday, and getting shut out in front of a national audience on Sunday, the Guardians are right back at it on Monday with Ben Lively on the bump. After facing Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, and Zack Wheeler over the weekend, the task at hand isn’t much easier tonight with Freddy Peralta on the hill for the Brewers.

Peralta’s Baseball Savant page is spectacular, as he has a 2.18 ERA with a 2.97 xERA and a 3.49 FIP over his 45.1 innings across eight starts. He has over a strikeout per inning, has cut down his BB% and his HR/FB%, and continues to shine in the contact management department. Peralta is in the 80th percentile in Hard Hit%, 85th percentile in Whiff%, 77th percentile in Chase%, and all of his pitch groups grade out on the plus side.

Lively, on the other hand, has more smoke and mirrors than a fun house. He’s in the 26th percentile in Barrel%, 22nd percentile in Hard Hit%, and has a 4.55 xERA to go with his 3.46 actual ERA and 4.58 FIP. He’s running a .261 BABIP and an 81.7% LOB% and those two metrics are doing a ton of heavy lifting, along with a .273 wOBA against with RISP.

Lively ranks in the 28th percentile in Chase%, bottom 4% in Whiff%, and 18th percentile in K%. The Brewers offense isn’t anything special, but they’re likely to make better contact and more authoritative contact, whereas Cleveland has so little margin for error on offense to begin with.

Another big angle in support of this play is that Peralta has an 0.49 ERA the second time through the order and has held the opposition to a .254 wOBA. A guy like Lively should theoretically be more hittable the more you see him. Peralta’s wOBAs against the second and third time through the order, so he locks in.

Pick: Brewers 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (+100)

Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros (-122, 8)

8:10 p.m. ET

A couple of right-handers square off at Daikin Park tonight, as Ryan Gusto returns to the Astros rotation and savvy veteran Michael Wacha makes his ninth start of the season. Gusto is back in the rotation thanks to the injury to Hayden Wesneski, as Gusto got bumped in favor of Lance McCullers Jr. With two awful starts for McCullers in his return, we’ll see what the Astros decide to do going forward, but Gusto is in no danger of  being sent to the bullpen or Triple-A for the foreseeable future.

He’s thrown the ball very well with a 2.93 ERA, 3.41 FIP, and a 3.89 xERA. Gusto has a strong K/BB ratio and has done a terrific job of keeping the ball in the park. The high xERA is a byproduct of some hard contact allowed, which is something to follow with a 48.1% Hard Hit%. But, he’s been able to miss some bats and has induced a high rate of pop ups throughout his career, which are effectively strikeouts.

The Royals are only 20th in Hard Hit% and 27th in Barrel%. While this team has been on a real heater up until the last couple of days, the offense remains a problem. Over the last 14 days, the Royals are 11th in wOBA, due in large part to a 15.9% K%. For the season, they are just 26th in wOBA and 27th against right-handed pitching.

Wacha has regressed in some ways this season, which is something that I expected, but he’s improved in others. He’s got a 2.98 ERA with a 3.76 xERA and a 3.12 FIP. His K% is down and his BB% is up, but his Barrel% is down and he’s only allowed a 3.7% HR/FB%, which is outstanding. He ranks in the 81st percentile in Hard Hit% and 65th percentile in Barrel%. Based on pitching run value, his fastballs rank in 76th percentile, his breaking balls are in the 87th percentile and his offspeed pitches are in the 94th percentile, as his elite changeup continues to do work.

Both bullpens are well-stocked for tonight’s game. I’m expecting a tight, low-scoring affair between these two teams tonight.

Pick: Royals/Astros Under 8 (-105)