MLB Best Bets Today September 1
Key Highlights:
- MLB schedule features lots of day games
- Braves vs. Cubs Prediction
- Orioles vs. Padres Pick
The start of the week brings us a very loaded MLB slate, as we have 13 games on tap for the Labor Day holiday. That also means we have a few extra day games compared to what we usually see on Mondays. There are a lot of midday games as well, so hopefully you can take advantage of the off day, if you have one, and get a jump on some of these matchups.
We’re into September now, which means that the final month of the regular season has arrived. Rosters have also expanded to 28 players, so the teams may add a player or two for the postseason push or to evaluate as the days of a wasted season wind down. Also, keep a close eye on pitchers and their workloads. Some young arms may be protected. Some guys reaching career-highs may lose velo or command. It’ll be on a case-by-case basis.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 1:
Braves vs. Cubs Prediction (-122, 7.5)
4:05 p.m. ET
It was a late night, but a good one for the Braves, who took the series finale from the Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball and then hopped a plane to O’Hare. Even with getting an hour back by going west, Atlanta arrived at 1:40 a.m. CT for this matinee matchup with the Cubs.
Spencer Strider gets the ball here, as he takes the mound on extra rest for the second straight start. A good note from Jeff Zimmerman in his ‘Mining The News’ column at FanGraphs pulled from an MLB.com article is that Strider went to a baseball facility called Maven in hopes of finding the old movement on his fastball. While he only had three strikeouts last time out against the Marlins, he did increase the induced vertical break on his fastball back to what it was in April when he was coming into the season off of a Spring Training injury. But, it more closely resembled what he did in 2023 and 2022 when he was really effective.
The other thing about that last start is that Strider went seven innings, his first time doing that since June 29. He also had a 47.4% GB%, his highest ground ball rate in a start since July 18 when he threw six shutout against the Yankees. So, I like some of the under-the-hood things we’re seeing from Strider.
As far as the Cubs go, Colin Rea gets the ball here. He was rough last time out against the Giants, but had thrown the ball well for four starts prior to that. He’ll be facing some tired Braves bats here on a pretty good day for pitching at Wrigley Field, as the total of 7.5 implies. However, Rea is not a big swing-and-miss guy. He’s allowed 17 BB in 40 innings here in the second half compared to 23 BB in 92 innings in the first half, when he also allowed 16 home runs.
I like the Braves here, as I think Strider is close to figuring it out. Teams that have traveled after Sunday Night Baseball have not fared well this season, so I’m a little scared of that, but Rea has not been very effective lately. The Cubs are also coming off of a trip to Colorado, so they could be a little weary as well, plus Daniel Palencia has worked three times in four days and Brad Keller worked three straight days from Thursday-Saturday. Andrew Kittredge also worked a back-to-back on Friday and Saturday.
Pick: Braves +101
Orioles vs. Padres Pick (-157, 7.5)
6:40 p.m. ET
The Orioles took a short trip down the California coast after yesterday’s blowout loss at the hands of the Giants to open up a weekday series against the Padres. San Diego returned from Minneapolis, so Baltimore actually got to San Diego earlier than their opponents in this one.
Kyle Bradish was masterful in his first start back, as he went six innings with a couple solo homers against and 10 strikeouts. He’s the focus for me in this one because he didn’t walk anybody in that start.
As we all know, Petco Park is graded on a heavy curve in park-adjusted metrics like wRC+. But, what is really carrying the Padres this season at home is their high BB%. San Diego has a 10.2% BB% at home, leading to a 108 wRC, which ranks ninth. However, it is important to point out that their batting average and slugging percentage at home and on the road are both very similar. The biggest difference is that they’re walking 3% less often on the road.
Bradish had a 6.6% BB% back in 2023 when he was healthier than he was last season, as Tommy John took him out for over a year. I think he’ll be very efficient with his pitches here, especially in a good pitcher’s park where you can survive some mistakes. Pitching in the AL East is a different story. I think he’ll go Over 15.5 Outs Recorded here. He got 18 outs in 81 pitches last start and I think the Orioles will allow him to go a little deeper into that pitch count if need be.
Pick: Kyle Bradish (BAL) Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-105)
