MLB Best Bets Today September 15
Key Highlights:
- Rangers vs. Astros Prediction
- Giants vs. Diamondbacks Pick
Nine games are on the MLB betting board for Monday, as we don’t have any interleague matchups to analyze. Five NL games and four AL games kick off the second-to-last full week of the regular season. The regular season ends on September 28, unless we need a Game 163 somewhere.
We don’t have any enormous favorites today, as the Yankees are pushing $2 against the Twins, but that’s the biggest chalk on the board. Hopefully that means we’ll get a good night’s worth of games.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 15:
Rangers vs. Astros Prediction (-127, 8.5)
8:10 p.m. ET
Lone Star State bragging rights and a big game in the standings are the storylines tonight in Houston, as the Rangers and Astros come together for the start of a huge three-game set. Two streaks ended in Queens yesterday, as the Rangers saw their six-game winning streak stopped and the Mets ended their extended eight-game skid. The Astros also lost in their series finale against the Braves while vying for a sweep.
Jack Leiter gets the ball today for the Rangers and he’s been very good in the second half. After posting an undeserved 4.37 ERA in the first half with a .309 wOBA against, Leiter has a 2.94 ERA with a .279 wOBA against in the second half. He’s got 61 strikeouts in 52 innings and the big bump in punchies has been a huge help. He’s also cut down his home run rate, allowing just four bombs compared to 10 in the first half.
Most importantly, the numbers are fair and accurate, as he has a 3.29 ERA with a 3.56 xERA and a 2.71 FIP in his last five starts. Compare that to Jason Alexander, who has a 3.10 ERA, but a 4.61 xERA and a 4.77 FIP In his last five starts. The Astros journeyman right-hander had a 93.8% LOB% in that span and that has been doing a lot of heavy lifting for him. If we look at his last seven starts, he has a 95.2% LOB%. It’s hard to see that being sustainable for much longer.
I’ll take my chances that it happens here, as the Rangers have been playing really well for a while now, but I’ll take my chances with the 1st 5. Texas’s bullpen usage is a bit of a concern, with Shawn Armstrong having worked back-to-back days and four of the last six. Robert Garcia and Phil Maton have also worked four of six, while depth arms Cole Winn and Hoby Milner have each worked back-to-back days. By comparison, the Astros bullpen is in much better shape.
Pick: Rangers 1st 5 (-105)
Giants vs. Diamondbacks Prediction (-132, 9.5)
9:40 p.m. ET
NL West rivals come together today with the Giants and Diamondbacks playing head-to-head for the second time in as many weeks. It will be Kai-Wei Teng for the Giants and Zac Gallen for the Diamondbacks. Teng will be making his first start against Arizona here, while the Giants just scored five runs over 6.2 innings of work against Gallen.
The Giants are actually fifth in wOBA at .342 over the last two weeks against RHP, so they’ve gotten the offense going a bit, and they are just 1.5 games behind the Mets. The Diamondbacks are two games behind the Mets, so this is a huge game for both teams. It felt like Gallen had gotten back on track after back-to-back starts of six shutout innings against the Rangers and Dodgers, but he had a setback with that start six days ago against SF.
Gallen only struck out three and walked three, as he also allowed 11 hard-hit balls and a couple of Barrels. It was the most hard-hit balls he had allowed in a start since July 21. He tried to leverage his changeup more and it didn’t really work, as he had his highest usage of the season of that pitch.
Teng is a pretty tough PA. Over 22.2 innings of work, he has 28 strikeouts against 14 walks. But, he’s also only allowed one home run. He’s been hurt by a .403 BABIP against, even though he has only allowed a 28.6% Hard Hit% and a 3.2% Barrel%. In other words, he’s deserved a better fate. He has struck out eight in each of his last two starts and posted SwStr% marks of 18.2% and 20% in those outings.
Since the start of August, the Diamondbacks have the sixth-highest Whiff% against right-handed sliders/sweepers/slurves, which should be good for Teng, who used his slider 48.2% of the time against the Rockies and 40.3% of the time against the Cardinals. That was a change from his first MLB stint, so I think that’s a good trend for him.
I’ll take two shots here – the first is the Giants at plus money on the ML. Their bullpen is in much better shape than Arizona’s and I’m still not convinced that Gallen is fixed. The second is Teng Over 4.5 Strikeouts at -104. Teng was a whiff merchant in the minors with 89 strikeouts over just 57 innings of work. He’s struck out 25.9% of opposing hitters in the bigs so far. Arizona doesn’t draw a lot of walks, so he has the chance to work a little bit deep into this one.
Picks: Giants +108; Kai-Wei Teng (SF) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-104)
