MLB Best Bets Today September 22

Many of us, myself included, have probably used the expression “calm before the storm” too often and not necessarily in the right context. It is legitimately true today in regards to the MLB schedule, as we have all of three games on the slate. All three are in the NL and none really have major playoff implications.

Nationals vs. Braves has none. The Brewers are three games up on the No. 1 seed after clinching the NL Central this past weekend. The Padres will be a playoff team, as they’re three back of the Dodgers in the NL West and are just waiting to clinch a Wild Card spot. The Giants are three back of the Wild Card, but have a major uphill climb having to leap the Diamondbacks, Mets, and Reds. The Cardinals are playing out the string.

Nevertheless, I guess everybody has some motivations, as evidenced by the Braves reeling off eight wins in a row. Oh, and the Marlins have the second-longest winning streak in the league, so we’ll see how spirited today’s three games are.

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for September 22:

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres (-125, 7)

9:40 p.m. ET

The push for a playoff berth continues for the Padres, whereas the Brewers left St. Louis about 97 minutes late and got to San Diego around 8:30 p.m. PT last night after a postgame celebration. Milwaukee lost 5-1, but the Reds edged the Cubs 1-0 to give the Brewers their third straight division title.

Obviously the job is far from finishing, as the Brewers haven’t won a playoff series since 2018, but it had to be a happy, alcohol-fueled flight to the Left Coast. And the team had to grab some grub after getting to the Gaslamp Quarter area, so it was a late night and could be a little bit of a late morning for the boys in blue and yellow.

One of the things I was right about coming into this season is that Nick Pivetta would thrive as a Padre. He comes into this start with a 2.81 ERA, 3.97 xERA, and a 3.49 FIP over his 176 innings of work. At home, specifically, the 32-year-old right-hander has a 2.22 ERA and has held the opposition to a .170/.220/.279 slash with a .219 wOBA in 97.1 innings of work. He’s in the friendly confines of Petco Park here and I would expect another fine outing.

Pivetta is showing no signs of slowing down with a .179/.234/.333 slash and a .247 wOBA against in the second half over 66.2 innings of work and he has allowed just five earned runs in three September starts.

Freddy Peralta has been terrific, too, boasting a 2.65 ERA with a 3.31 xERA and a 3.61 FIP over his 169.2 innings of work. He has only allowed seven runs total over his last 44 innings as he, like Pivetta, has been even better in the second half. His ERA does spike by two runs on the road, though Petco Park is a forgiving venue. Just something to watch in the playoffs.

Still, with the Padres at a short price here still pushing for a playoff berth, I think they are more focused and engaged today. This is Milwaukee’s first trip two time zones west since playing the Dodgers and Mariners to open the second half of the season.

I’m also going to take a shot here at Pivetta Over 5.5 Strikeouts at plus money. He’s gone Over this number in four of his last six starts. This is a very hard lineup to strike out, but Pivetta needs 15 punchies in his two remaining starts to get to 200 for the first time in his career. I think he might be vying for strikeouts a little more aggressively than usual in hopes of giving himself a chance in what should be his final postseason tune-up on Sunday against Arizona.

Also, Peralta needs just five strikeouts to reach 200 for the third straight season. He landed on exactly 200 last season as he got one out in the sixth against the Pirates via strikeout. His Over/Under is 5.5. Because the Brewers are in the driver’s seat for a bye, I think he’ll get another start (unless they fall out of that spot), so he won’t be pushed for it here if he’s on the brink.

Keep an eye on these individual accolades late in the season here. Guys vying for 30 HR, 100 RBI, 200 K, 10 W, 15 W, 20 SB, 30 SB, 40 SB, etc. There could be some strong player prop values there this week. Like Brice Turang, for example, needs two homers to hit 20 for the season. He’s hit 12 in the second half thus far. Hard to get it to happen at Petco, but DraftKings has him at +780 for 1+ HR. Using some profit boosts on player props like these throughout the week could be very +EV.

Picks: Padres -125; Nick Pivetta (SD) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+116)