MLB Best Bets Today September 8
Key Highlights:
- Royals vs. Guardians Prediction
- Reds vs. Padres Prediction
Monday Night Football is still probably at the forefront of everybody’s sports betting mind, but we do have a good-sized slate of games on the diamond, as we’ll get six games in the NL, three in the AL, and two interleague matchups. The regular season ends three weeks from yesterday, so the playoff races are very much in the spotlight and will create some inflated lines on some games going forward.
The earliest game starts at 6:40 p.m. ET, so we have all day to do some digging and find the best plays. This might be a good time to be focused on MLB with so many others focused on NFL and CFB, leading to some possible mispricings in the market.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 8:
Royals vs. Guardians Prediction (-111, 8)
6:40 p.m. ET
A massive series with huge AL Wild Card implications gets underway tonight in Cleveland, as Ryan Bergert gets the call for the Royals and Slade Cecconi gets the ball for the Guardians. Bergert has been terrific for KC since they got him at the Trade Deadline from the Padres, posting a 2.43 ERA with a 3.83 FIP in 33.1 innings of work. A slightly elevated BB% and less than a strikeout per inning have Bergert’s FIP a good bit higher than his ERA.
It is worth pointing out that there are regression signs in the profile, as he’s running a .209 BABIP and an 83.9% LOB% in those six starts. But, he’s inducing a lot of weak aerial contact with his fastball/slider arsenal. For a guy with a GB% under 30% to have a 7.8% Barrel% is really impressive. Cleveland doesn’t barrel the ball often and Bergert has also pitched to a .252 wOBA against with a .176/.258/.301 slash when facing lefties.
I also think this is a good bounce back spot for Cecconi. He’s got a 6.19 ERA with a 5.55 FIP in the second half, but he hasn’t missed a ton of bats and has a 20.3% HR/FB% against. First off, it’s cooling down in Cleveland and the ballpark will start to play a lot bigger with the cool, fall-like breeze off the lake. His xFIP of 4.20 shows just how damaging the homers have been and he’s allowed one in every start.
But, he’s also faced the Red Sox, Rays, Rangers, Braves, White Sox, Mets, Rockies, Orioles, and Athletics. Those teams currently rank 7th, 25th, 14th, 12th, 17th, 3rd, 20th, 9th, and 15th in Barrel%. The Royals rank 24th. KC has the highest pop up rate in baseball by a good margin. Cleveland is third, by the way. So, I think this is an opportunity for a pitch-to-contact guy like Cecconi to find more success.
These teams also know each other exceedingly well. Royals pitching coach Brian Sweeney was the Guardians bullpen coach, so he’s aware of all of the hitters, even the younger ones. Cleveland’s bullpen has stabilized a bit of late and the Royals have the best bullpen ERA over the last 30 days.
Pick: Royals/Guardians Under 8 Runs (-119)
Reds vs. Padres Prediction (-144, 7.5)
9:40 p.m. ET
The start of Cincinnati’s second long West Coast swing in the span of a month is tonight in San Diego, where they’ll square off against Yu Darvish. The Reds will counter with Nick Lodolo, who was pushed back due to an illness over the weekend.
My focus here is on Darvish against the Reds lineup, as I think Over 5.5 Strikeouts at +110 is worth the gamble given the value on the price and the matchup. The Reds have the third-highest K% against RHP over the last 14 days at 27.6% in 341 plate appearances. Darvish is back at the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park, where he has pitched to a .193/.304/.318 slash and a .285 wOBA in 25.1 innings of work, so there’s a good chance that he will work deeper into the game here.
Also, Darvish has a 26% K% against right-handed batters compared to a 19.5% K% against left-handed ones. He also has a 24.3% K% at home compared to a 20.7% K% on the road. The Reds only have three left-handed bats and a switch hitter on the roster. Elly De La Cruz and Will Benson are two of them and those are two guys that will swing and miss a lot.
So, I think it’s worth it here, as the plus-money price is nice and he’s facing a lineup going across three time zones to play a late game that matches up well for him.
Pick: Yu Darvish (SD) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)
