MLB Best Bets Today April 12:
Baseball all day is the theme for Saturday, as games begin at 2:10 p.m. ET and run all the way through until close to or after midnight on the East Coast. There are fewer weather concerns today than we had yesterday, so that’s good and hopefully all games will go off without a hitch.
As usual when there are day games, I try to look only at the later games that have some lead time. Limiting the card always presents some challenges, since there may be a great bet to make in the early games, but you can use Greg Peterson’s article for that, as he sends picks based on the overnight lines.
Top MLB Resources:
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year, I intend to work in more props, derivatives, and maybe even some parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and attack some different markets. What worked for me in the past has not worked as well the last two years, so I’m looking to make some changes and that includes my bet distribution by type and market.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 12:
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (-125, 8.5)
6:40 p.m. ET
The two worst offenses in baseball come together today, as the Pirates and Reds square off in Cincinnati. These teams are 29th and 30th in wOBA, with the Reds ever so slightly better than the Pirates because of their higher slugging percentage. The Pirates are drawing more walks and have stolen nearly three times as many bases.
We’ve got Andrew Heaney vs. Andrew Abbott today in a battle of southpaws. Heaney is coming off of a masterful effort against the Yankees, in which he struck out 10 over seven innings and allowed just one run. He’s back to leveraging his curveball more and that was a big Whiff generator for him against the Yanks.
It is a pretty small sample of just 129 plate appearances, but the Reds are batting .142/.240/.248 against lefties and have struck out 25.6% of the time. While the Pirates have similarly poor numbers, there is a notable difference between the two starters.
Abbott is coming up from a couple of rehab starts in Triple-A, where he allowed four runs on 10 hits and also walked five batters. Three of those 10 hits were home runs. After sitting 92.8 mph with his fastball at the MLB level last season, his fastball velo was 90.2 mph over his two rehab efforts.
Heaney’s upside looks to be higher than Abbott’s in this one and that should help one offense try to get over the hump a little bit more than the other.
Pick: Pirates +105
Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers (-185, 9)
9:10 p.m. ET
Ben Brown and Roki Sasaki are set to throw the first pitch for their respective teams in this late one in Chavez Ravine. Sasaki made his MLB debut against the Cubs and it was a tough one, as he only allowed one run on one hit, but walked five of the 14 batters that he faced. The Cubs come into this game second in MLB in BB% at 12%.
The Phillies actually lead the league and Sasaki only walked two in his start against them last time out. They have a 12.2% BB%. It was a much better start for Sasaki, moving away from his Tokyo Series debut and then his first home start against the Tigers. He had a 76.5% F-Strike% and a 51.5% Zone%, both season highs. However, Sasaki still isn’t getting a lot of chases. His Chase Rate is just 18.5%, which ranks in the Bottom 6% of the league. He got pushed out to 68 pitches in that start against the Phillies and ran into trouble in the fifth.
I think he’ll be looking at around 75-80 pitches today as the Dodgers try to keep incrementally stretching him out. So far this season, he’s thrown 186 pitches with a Ball% of 47.3%. The start against Philadelphia may have been a true building block, but the 23-year-old was so frustrated with his home debut against the Tigers that he was crying in the dugout after he was pulled. I can’t help but think that this start may induce a little anxiety and cause him to nibble a little against a very patient Cubs lineup.
For that reason, I do like Sasaki Over 2.5 Walks Allowed at a nice plus-money price of +140. But, there’s more. Brown is a guy that needs a compass to find home plate. In his MLB career, he owns a 9.9% BB%, but he also had a 10.3% BB% over six minor league seasons. The Dodgers haven’t been quite as patient this season and are actually striking out a decent amount, but their 9.9% BB% still ranks 10th.
His Over 2.5 Walks Allowed prop is juiced at -105. He’s walked nine in 11.2 innings so far this season, including three of the 15 batters he faced in Tokyo when the Cubs played the Dodgers. It is pretty daunting to face the Dodgers lineup and Freddie Freeman is back now as well. I could see Brown go Over his 2.5 number as well.
Picks: Roki Sasaki (LAD) Over 2.5 Walks Allowed (+140); Ben Brown (CHC) Over 2.5 Walks Allowed (-105)
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners (-148, 7)
9:40 p.m. ET
Late action in the PNW brings the Rangers and Mariners together for Game 2 of this series. The Mariners drew first blood in Game 1 on the strength of three home runs, including a tie-breaking two-run shot from Cal Raleigh in the eighth.
I’m looking to back the Mariners here, but with a 1st 5 Run Line play. Bryan Woo gets the call today for Seattle and he was magnificent at home last season. Over 58.1 innings and 217 batters, Woo posted a .186/.207/.295 slash with a .218 wOBA against and a 2.47 ERA paired with a 2.70 FIP. He had a 25.3% K% at home compared to an 18% K% on the road, so he’s definitely way more comfortable pitching at T-Mobile Park than other places.
Woo has made one home start and one road start this season. In the home start, he allowed one run on three hits with five strikeouts and two walks. In the road start, he allowed four runs on five hits over six innings. He actually fared better in the contact management department in that road start, as there was definitely some bad luck in the mix there.
Kumar Rocker goes for the Rangers today. His first start at Cincinnati was an ugly one, as he allowed six runs on seven hits over just three innings. He rebounded and threw five innings of one-run ball next time out against the Rays in Arlington. Rocker isn’t generating much swing and miss, though. He only had one strikeout in that start against Tampa and hasn’t gotten a whole lot of chases so far.
With Woo’s home dominance and Rocker still learning his way around the Majors, I think the Mariners play from in front in this game. Their 1st 5 Run Line price at -105 seems like a reasonable price to pay, especially when you consider Seattle’s 1st 5 Team Total is 1.5 and -160 to the Over, while the Rangers’ line of 1.5 is juiced to the Under.
Pick: Mariners 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-105)
