MLB Best Bets Today August 9

The MLB train rolls on today with a full slate of games. We have 16 to be exact, as the Marlins and Braves play a doubleheader in the Georgia heat with a makeup game from all the way back on April 6. Other than that split double dip, we’ve got business as usual for the other 28 teams, as playoff races continue to be tight.

Unlike last Saturday, we’ve got a lot of late games on the slate for this Saturday, so that gives everybody ample time to cap the card before going about their days.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for August 9:

Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers (-136, 8.5)

6:10 p.m. ET

Charlie Morton got a new lease on life, as the grizzled veteran struggled through the first few months of the season with the Orioles in the rough and tumble AL East, but has now been reunited with AJ Hinch, his former skipper with the Astros. His first start was a strong one against a very good Phillies lineup and now he’ll make his Comerica Park debut against the Angels.

Morton went six innings with six punchies and just one run on four hits against the Phillies six days ago. He went heavier with four-seam fastballs than he had in most of his previous starts and was able to command the pitch really effectively, while still leveraging the curveball that has allowed him to pitch into his 40s. The Tigers have been really strong with pitcher development lately, something that has actually evaded the Orioles, so I think this is a big organizational upgrade for him.

Tarik Skubal has a lot to do with this, but the Tigers are sixth in BB/9 as a pitching staff and ninth in BB/9 as a rotation. Morton’s biggest issues come when he’s walking guys, but I think he’ll have more confidence to pitch to contact with spacious Comerica and by being outside of the AL East that has so many good offensive teams. Sometimes all it takes is a better mentality and Morton should have that.

Today, he draws an Angels team with just a .288 wOBA and an 81 wRC+ against RHP over the last 14 days. They also have a 28.4% K% in that span against an 8.4% BB%, so this should be an opportunity for Morton to shine.

Yusei Kikuchi gets the call for the Halos here. He’s had a strong season with a 3.22 ERA and a 3.98 FIP, but does own a 4.27 xERA. He’s been fortunate to throw 16 more innings at home than on the road this season. When you put him on the road, he has a 4.27 ERA compared to a 2.40 ERA at home with a .275/.363/.424 slash and a .346 wOBA against. He’s got a 12.2% BB% on the road as well. 

I like the Tigers on the 1st 5 Run Line here at -0.5 and +110. It’s a great matchup for Morton and Kikuchi’s road splits are concerning. I’ll also lay the full-game price, as they have the better bullpen, too.

Pick: Tigers 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (+110); Tigers -136

Chicago Cubs (-112, 9) at St. Louis Cardinals

7:15 p.m. ET

It will be a sweltering day in St. Louis for the Saturday matchup between the Cubs and Cardinals. Colin Rea and Andre Pallante are the slated starters here, so we should have tons of balls in play and ample opportunities for runs to be scored. This could be the matchup that injects a bit of life into a Cubs team that has really been scuffling offensively.

Pallante has a 4.57 ERA with a 4.07 xERA and a 4.40 FIP in his 122 innings of work. He’s a ground ball specialist with a 60.6% GB%, but a really poor K% of 15.4%. The Cubs are on the high end with a 24.3% K% against RHP over the last 14 days, so this should help, getting a matchup against a pitch-to-contact guy. 

According to FanGraphs’ BsR metric, which is an all-encompassing baserunning stat, the Cubs are fourth in MLB. That means if they can get some innings started, they should be able to do some things on the bases, like going first to third on hits or starting runners to get out of potential double play situations.

Pallante has had two solid starts in a row, but he also gave up 18 runs on 25 hits over his previous three starts, so there is some blow-up potential there and a hot day against a talented lineup seems like an opportunity for that.

Rea comes in with a 4.23 ERA, 4.97 xERA, and a 4.81 FIP in his 110.2 innings of work. The right-hander has allowed 13 runs on 24 hits over his last 18.2 innings and has some blow-up potential of his own, as he’s allowed 6+ runs in four of his 19 starts and at least four runs in seven of them. Four of those starts have come in the last two months.

The Cardinals bullpen got picked apart at the Trade Deadline, so they’re running out some marginal relievers these days. The Cubs bullpen has a 5.72 ERA and a 5.10 FIP in the second half. We should get some runs today.

Pick: Cubs/Cardinals Over 9 (-106)

Boston Red Sox at San Diego Padres (-139, 7.5)

8:40 p.m. ET

We’ve got Lucas Giolito and Michael King in this one, as King makes his return from the IL. To me, it seems like they’ve hurried King back, as he gave up six runs on four hits, including two homers, in his only rehab start. His last MLB start came way back on May 18. So, I wouldn’t expect to see him in this game long, but that does mean turning it over to a very good San Diego bullpen.

Lucas Giolito gets the call for Boston tonight and he’s been solid in his last two efforts after a couple terrible starts following the All-Star Break. Giolito went eight innings with one run allowed last time out against Houston in a very good home start, which is a good sign given how hard it is to pitch at Fenway Park.

Giolito has been quite strong on the road, where he has a 3.10 ERA over 52.1 innings of work with a .205/.269/.363 slash against and just a .278 wOBA. He has given up nine homers on the road, which has driven up his FIP in that split and for the season as a whole, but only 20 total runs, as most of them have been solo shots.

King’s fastball velo was 92.7 mph in his rehab start, down a full mph from what his MLB velo was prior to the shoulder injury that kept him out of action for nearly three months. I’ll take my chances with the Red Sox for the 1st 5 here, trading a few cents on the full game to avoid the Padres pen.

Pick: Red Sox 1st 5 (+105)