MLB Best Bets Today July 20:
It seemed like a little rust was shaken off of both pitchers and hitters on Friday. The rhythms of the season were interrupted by the All-Star Break and athletes are creatures of habit, so we will see everybody trying to settle back in over the next little while. I think that is especially true of pitchers, as we’ll have guys over the next few days that haven’t started in quite some time. That does make it a bit tough to handicap, especially in terms of knowing who will be sharp and who won’t.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for July 20:
Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics (-148, 9)
4:07 p.m. ET
The Angels and A’s continue their weekend series and it could be another fun day for the Oakland bats, as Jack Kochanowicz makes the start. Mitch Spence gets the call for Oakland, as the A’s look to secure a series victory after last night’s 13-3 rout.
You probably haven’t noticed, but the A’s have the league’s best offense in July. They’re batting .275/.348/.519 with a .371 wOBA and lead the league in SLG and wOBA. They have hit 28 homers this month and have taken full advantage of some of the bad pitching that they have faced.
Kochanowicz may not be a bad pitcher when all is said and done, but the 23-year-old right-hander comes into his second start after allowing five runs on seven hits in just three innings in his first. The Mariners only struck out once in 16 batters and had an average exit velocity over 94 mph on 13 batted balls.
Kochanowicz skipped Triple-A after posting a 4.55 ERA over 91 innings at Double-A. He is a pitch-to-contact guy who has to rely on his infield defense with high ground balls and the Angels are not a very good infield defense. They are -20 Outs Above Average per Statcast, which is the second-worst mark in baseball, trailing only the Red Sox.
He doesn’t strand a lot of runners because he doesn’t record a lot of strikeouts and BABIP-dependent guys with bad defenses are bad bets in my opinion.
Pick: Athletics 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-110)
Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins (-125, 7.5)
7:10 p.m. ET
While 28 other teams took the field yesterday, the Brewers and Twins had to wait. They’ll get back at it tonight with the first of two in the Twin Cities and it will be a battle of aces with Freddy Peralta for the Brewers and Pablo Lopez for the Twins.
Lopez is a guy that I have circled to back here in the second half. He comes in with a 5.11 ERA, but a 3.44 xERA, 3.84 FIP, and a 3.22 xFIP. Lopez has a 27.9% K% with a 5.3% BB%, but the long ball and some unfortunate sequencing have been problems for him. He’s given up 18 homers and has a 65.5% LOB%. Last season, he allowed 24 homers in 194 innings with a 76.2% LOB% and had a 3.66 ERA.
Lopez ranks in the 80th percentile in Chase%, 73rd in Whiff%, 84th in K%, and 88th in BB%. He also has elite Extension and above average fastball velocity. I think the All-Star Break could be a good thing for him, as he had a chance to catch his breath and the Twins should be able to optimize his arsenal a bit better with a chance to reset.
There are some positive regression signs in the profile for Peralta as well, as he has a 4.11 ERA with a 3.74 xERA and a 3.69 FIP in his 103 innings of work, but I like where the Twins are at offensively more than where Milwaukee is right now and I also like the Twins bullpen more.
Perhaps some downtime will help, but the Brewers come into this game last in bullpen fWAR for the month of July with a 4.75 ERA and a 5.85 FIP. The Twins, meanwhile, are second in fWAR, fifth in ERA, and third in FIP. Also, the Twins own a .361 wOBA in July that ranks second and Milwaukee has a .330 that ranks 13th, but a big part of their offense is predicated on drawing walks.
Milwaukee’s 11.6% BB% this month is the highest in the league, but Lopez is very stingy with free passes and so is the Twins pen.
Pick: Twins -125
