MLB Best Bets Today July 26

Most teams will avoid the sweltering heat of summer on Saturday, as the lone day games on the docket are between the Phillies and Yankees and the Guardians and Royals due to last night’s rainout. New York has a major problem, as Aaron Judge is battling an elbow ailment and he’s been sent for some tests, so fans are collectively freaking out, as you would expect. His Yankees are a home dog today and the twin bill for the Guardians and Royals means that those are the only two games not under consideration for me today.

The rest of the slate is up for grabs and there are some interesting matchups with some good betting angles to consider.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for July 26:

Tampa Bay Rays at Cincinnati Reds (-126, 9)

6:40 p.m. ET

A righty vs. lefty matchup at Great American Ball Park serves as Game 2 of the weekend interleague set between the Rays and Reds. Longtime pals Kevin Cash and Terry Francona always bring the jabs and humor when those two meet, but it was Tito who got the last laugh in Game 1 with a 7-2 triumph.

Both Pepiot and Abbott are having fine seasons. The former comes into tonight’s start with a 3.59 ERA, but a 3.98 xERA and a 4.47 FIP. More on that in a moment. The latter has a 2.13 ERA with a 3.24 xERA and a 3.42 FIP.

Pepiot has a major home run issue and that’s driven his FIP up. He has solid K and BB numbers, but has allowed a 42.9% Hard Hit% and a 10.1% Barrel%, which includes 21 homers in his 120.1 innings of work and a 15.4% HR/FB%. He tilts to the fly ball/line drive side with a GB% of 38.9%.

Abbott does even more so with a 30.7% GB%, but here’s the difference. He has a 7.6% HR/FB% and a 32.9% Hard Hit% with a 7.5% Barrel%. Abbott’s definitely done a better job of staying off the barrel and avoiding hard contact while posting pretty similar K and BB numbers. 

The Rays have not played well for a while now, as they’ve won consecutive games once since June 24-26 when they swept the Royals in Kansas City to improve to 46-35. They are 7-16 since. Meanwhile, the Reds have been playing pretty well and are trying to make the case for being a buyer at the Trade Deadline to bolster their Wild Card hopes. I think they get another victory tonight to further that notion.

Pick: Reds -126

New York Mets at San Francisco Giants (-115, 7.5)

9:05 p.m. ET

We’ve got a solid pitching matchup here with a couple of southpaws, as David Peterson and Robbie Ray start the middle game of this set at Oracle Park. The Mets packed their bats last night, as they jumped on Logan Webb and got another good start from Clay Holmes to take down an 8-1 decision.

These two teams have been slumping against lefties, as the Giants rank 28th in wOBA and actually have a 32.2% K% against them over the last 30 days. The Mets are 20th in wOBA with a mark of .291. Their 91 wRC+ means they are 9% below league average in that span and San Francisco’s 72 wRC+ means that they are 28% below league average.

Peterson has a 2.90 ERA with a 4.09 xERA and a 3.34 FIP. His 45.2% Hard Hit% is a big factor in the high xERA, but he’s an extreme ground ball pitcher with a 56% GB%. The Mets have played well defensively behind him and he’s done what he’s done throughout his career and that’s strand runners at an above average rate.

Ray comes in with a 2.92 ERA, 3.27 xERA, and a 3.76 FIP over his 123.1 innings of work. The 33-year-old is missing fewer bats this season with a dip in K%, but he’s also throwing more strikes and has done a better job of containing the long ball. As you would expect with a friendly park factor, Ray has a 2.53 ERA at home over 67.2 innings of work with a strong .217/.287/.344 slash against and a .280 wOBA against. His HR/FB% at home dips to just 8.5%, which is terrific.

The Mets bullpen has had its issues this season, but they’ve been very good to start the second half and just added Gregory Soto to the mix. The Giants continue to have one of the league’s most talented relief corps and the friendly park factor should come into play here as well.

Three plays here for me – the first is the Under 7.5, as both starters should be able to experience success tonight. The other is the Mets as a slight pup with Peterson on the bump. Their offense is better in this split against lefties and their offense is just better overall. And finally, Peterson Over 4.5 Strikeouts at +100. Peterson came back from the Break rested with his first double-digit SwStr% in five starts and that was without many chases outside the zone from the Reds. I like that he was getting whiffs in the zone, tying his fourth-best Z-Contact%. Like I said, the Giants have a K% north of 30% against LHP over the last 30 days and have the third-highest K% against lefties for the season at 26.2%.

Picks: Mets -106; Mets/Giants Under 7.5 (-105); David Peterson (NYM) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)