MLB Best Bets Today July 5

The holiday weekend surges forward on the diamond, as we have a lot of day games and a decent amount of night games on July 5. Nearly every game has a green light from a weather standpoint, so there aren’t any great prop angles to think about with starters who may see their outings cut short. But, at least that means one less thing to worry about when handicapping.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for July 5:

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers (-150, 8.5)

7:15 p.m. ET

In what may very well be a World Series preview, the Astros and Dodgers continue their weekend set in Chavez Ravine. It will be Framber Valdez for Houston and Shohei Ohtani as a two-inning opener for Justin Wrobleski. Ohtani is still working his way back into pitching form, as he’s made three starts and allowed one run on three hits over four innings of work.

I guess it’s possible that we see Will Klein or somebody follow Ohtani, given that Wrobleski is a lefty and the Astros are the most right-handed-heavy lineup in the league, but since Wrobleski hasn’t pitched since last Sunday, I’m guessing he’s that option. That said, the Dodgers need a starter for tomorrow, though whispers are that Emmet Sheehan could be recalled from Triple-A.

Regardless, after Ohtani, it will either be Wrobleski, who has been terrific of late, but has faced the Royals, Rockies, and slumping Padres and Giants. The Astros should represent a step up in class, not to mention the platoon advantages, if he does follow Shohei. If it’s somebody else, it’s likely to be a lesser arm, at least early.

Valdez, an impending free agent, is in the midst of another stellar season, as he has a 2.72 ERA with a 3.78 xERA and a 3.01 FIP in his 109 innings of work. The southpaw has allowed a 47.2% Hard Hit% and his BB% is a tick high, hence the high xERA. But, he’s the same extreme ground ball guy that he’s always been and he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since May 2. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start since May 18. He hasn’t allowed a run in each of his last two starts.

I’ll take my chances with Valdez and a top-tier Astros bullpen at a solid plus-money price here.

Pick: Astros +123

Texas Rangers at San Diego Padres (-123, 8)

9:40 p.m. ET

The Rangers and Padres come together for Game 2 of their weekend set, as we’ll see Patrick Corbin on the hill for Texas and Stephen Kolek for San Diego. The Rangers have actually gotten some useful innings out of Corbin, who enters with a 4.26 ERA, 4.28 xERA, and a 4.32 FIP over 82.1 innings of work. That being said, the shine might be coming off a bit. 

Over his last four starts, Corbin has a 6.43 ERA with 15 runs allowed on 29 hits in 21 innings of work. He’s allowed a 44.9% Hard Hit% and an 8.7% Barrel% with an average exit velo of 92.3 mph and he has four starts with an average exit velo of 91.2 mph or higher. The command is starting to wane a little bit it looks like. And as it is, Corbin has allowed 3+ earned runs in seven of his last nine starts, which should be a good enough head start for the Padres with their bullpen.

Kolek has surprisingly pitched very poorly at Petco Park, but he has been quite good on the road. He comes in with a 9.20 ERA in three starts at home over just 14.2 innings, but a 2.06 ERA in 48 innings on the road. That’s not how it should look with such a good pitcher’s park like Petco, so I would anticipate that his home numbers improve sooner rather than later.

Kolek is a BABIP-dependent guy with a 50.5% GB%, but I do prefer that and his 8.8% HR/FB% and 0.72 HR/9 to Corbin’s 12.2% HR/FB% and 1.31 HR/9. Petco isn’t the best park for power, but Kolek’s ability to keep the ball on the ground and force the manufacture of runs should be a positive attribute here. Corbin also has four extreme fly ball starts in a row in that four-start span I just discussed.

The Padres bullpen outlasted the Rangers bullpen yesterday and I’d expect the same again today if it comes down to it.

Pick: Padres -123