MLB Best Bets Today June 28

All 30 teams are in action on Saturday and so am I, as I’m back from a two-week trip with hopefully a refreshed set of eyes to study the MLB slate. Thanks to Jonathan Von Tobel for filling in while I was gone and making sure that our readers had some analysis each and every day.

Only two of today’s games are really early, as we have a lot of 4 p.m. ET start times across the schedule. Sorry for the shorter lead time today, but the vast majority of the schedule is in the 4 p.m. ET window, so there aren’t as many late options to pick from.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for June 28:

Seattle Mariners (-123, 7.5) at Texas Rangers

4:05 p.m. ET

Bryan Woo and Kumar Rocker are the slated starters in this one. Woo has had a little bit of a rough June, at least by his standards, with an ERA of nearly 4.00. His Barrel% is up near double digits now and his home/road splits continue to stand out a bit with a .238 wOBA against at home and a .286 wOBA against on the road. By no means is that a bad number, but Woo has allowed a 12.3% HR/FB% on the road compared to a 10.2% mark at home. He’s tracking similarly to his career home/road splits this season and he’s not as dominant of a pitcher away from the friendly confines.

Dating back to June 10, the Rangers have a .250/.332/.401 slash with a 107 wRC+, so they’ve been swinging it well, most notably in the contact department with just an 18.4% K%. In that span, the Mariners are sixth in MLB in wOBA at .344 with a .277/.347/.446 slash, leading to a good matchup here against Rocker.

Rocker has been better in his last two starts, but those were against the Pirates and White Sox. In that Pirates start, he still only had four strikeouts out of 23 batters and gave up a Hard Hit% of 58.3%, so his command and control weren’t particularly strong. Now he’s stepping up in class with a Seattle lineup that has been good all year and touched him up for four runs in 3.1 innings back on April 12, including his highest average exit velocity allowed this season.

Bullpen-wise, these two units have allowed a ton of contact recently, but have found success in the batted ball department. Since June 10, the Rangers have allowed a .256 BABIP and the Mariners have allowed a .224 BABIP, two areas of regression in my opinion.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-112)

Los Angeles Dodgers (-163, 9.5) at Kansas City Royals

4:10 p.m. ET

Pretty simple handicap here. I’ll back a Dodgers lineup on a sweltering day in Kansas City for the 1st 5 innings against Seth Lugo, who has a horseshoe lodged so far up an unnamed orifice that it has to fall out at some point.

Lugo actually has 16 strikeouts over his last two starts, so maybe this isn’t the right time to buy stock in fading him, but he has a 2.93 ERA with a 4.71 xERA and a 4.26 FIP. Lugo has allowed a .236 BABIP and has an 83.3% LOB% with a below average K%. Those are two stats that we really want to hone in on at this stage of the season. He’s thrown 83 innings thus far and has a career-high 45.7% Hard Hit% and his second-highest Barrel% since the COVID-shortened 2020 season at 8.6%.

The Dodgers remain a potent and dangerous lineup and a very hard one to fight through on a 90-degree day in KC with a dewpoint in the 70s. The ball should carry well at Kauffman Stadium. With a total of 9.5 and the Royals as one of the worst offenses in the league, this seems like a pretty equitable bet.

Pick: Dodgers 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-110)

Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros (-119, 8)

7:15 p.m. ET

A couple of right-handers square off here, as Colin Rea and Lance McCullers Jr. come together for the middle game of this weekend set. Rea has had a rough go of it lately and McCullers is coming off of an IL stint, so there is a high degree of variance to this game in my opinion. McCullers did not make any rehab starts and spent 17 days on the IL.

Rea has some very stark handedness splits this season. Lefties have pummeled him to the tune of a .338/.381/.571 slash with a .408 wOBA. He’s been far more successful against righties with a .231/.280/.351 slash and a .280 wOBA against. He’s allowed nine of 13 HR to lefties and has a 27/12 K/BB ratio compared to a 27/7 against RHB. Against the Houston lineup, those splits should work to his benefit.

The Astros have obviously been outstanding for a while now, but they are 16th in wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days at .324. On the flip side, the Cubs are sixth at .345 and are 14 points higher in wRC+. To me, that bodes poorly for McCullers, who can be erratic and has to shake off some rust in his return to the rotation.

As a guy who has missed a ton of time, being shelved with a foot problem had to be extremely frustrating, so we’ll see how sharp he is, as he may very well be pressing a bit, especially against such a good lineup. The Cubs only have an 18.6% K% against RHP in the last 14 days, which is the third-lowest in baseball. McCullers has allowed a 53.8% Hard Hit% and a 10.3% Barrel% in 78 batted ball events. So when he’s not getting whiffs, he’s getting hit hard.

I’ll give the Cubs a look for the 1st 5 here. Houston’s relief dominance has been a big part of their recent stretch, so I don’t really want to go up against that at the expense of eight cents of vig.

Pick: Cubs 1st 5 (-110)