MLB Best Bets Today March 29:
A new day dawns in Major League Baseball, as all 30 teams take the field in the same day for the first time. Games start at 1:05 p.m. ET and the last first pitch will be at 9:10 p.m. ET, so it is truly an all-day affair. Each new set of games brings a new set of opportunities with moneylines, totals, and all of the prop betting options that are out there and it can be very tough to narrow your focus and key in on one specialty or one area that makes more sense than another.
There is so much data out there and a whole lot of different betting choices, so it’s important to consider all possible avenues and try to establish your strengths and weaknesses early in the season to really hone in on what is successful for you.
Top MLB Resources:
It would be wise to check out my stats glossary, as you’ll see a lot of those terms and the application of them in my handicapping. Also, check out my 30 MLB Team Previews and my list of roster updates since the previews are about a month or so old.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year, I intend to work in more props, derivatives, and maybe even some parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and attack some different markets. What worked for me in the past has not worked as well the last two years, so I’m looking to make some changes and that includes my bet distribution by type and market.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for March 29:
Atlanta Braves (-155, 8) at San Diego Padres
7:15 p.m. ET
The early part of the season can be a little bit tricky, even for ace-level pitchers, but I will look for the opportunity to gamble on stuff when I get the chance. Few pitchers in baseball have better stuff than Spencer Schwellenbach, who I think will be a Cy Young candidate when all is said and done.
His season starts at Petco Park against a good Padres lineup that is typically good at avoiding strikeouts, but I have to follow through on how much I like Schwelly this season. Over his final 79 innings last season, he posted a 2.73 ERA with a .275 wOBA against. That included a 27.5% K% as he got more comfortable pitching at the big league level.
Obviously you aren’t always facing MLB hitters in Spring Training, but he had 28 strikeouts out of 81 batters faced in Grapefruit League action and only walked three of them. That’s a 34.6% K% and K% and BB% are two stats that have shown to stabilize quickly and be predictive, even in Spring Training.
Chris Sale threw 85 pitches over five innings in the opener against the Friars and Reynaldo Lopez threw 94 last night over five frames. It does seem like the Braves feel confident and comfortable with where their pitchers are to let them work deeper into games and run those pitch counts up a little bit. The more innings Schwellenbach gets, the better the chance that he goes over this.
With 127 K in 123.2 MLB innings last season and 106 in 110 innings in the minors, he’s effectively a strikeout per inning guy. And remember, he only pitched one year at Nebraska and only made 18 relief appearances, so he’s pretty new to pitching and should only continue to get better. Add in a plus-money price here and it has to be a play.
Pick: Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
New York Mets at Houston Astros (-120, 8.5)
7:15 p.m. ET
We’ve got a really interesting pitching matchup here between Griffin Canning and Spencer Arrighetti. These are two guys that I’m buying stock in this season. Canning is a guy that I’ve talked about so much more than most, but his fastball is terrible and he was throwing it way too much. Now that he got away from an organization that has no idea what it is doing (Angels) and gone to one with a progressive pitching coach in Jeremy Hefner and a really smart lead exec in David Stearns, I’m not surprised to see what we saw in Spring Training.
Canning avoided that bad fastball as much as possible and wound up posting a 1.88 ERA with a 2.62 FIP in 14.1 innings, as he struck out 22 and walked just five. Canning had a SwStr% over 14% with his refined arsenal of sliders, changeups, and cutters. Astros hitters punished fastballs last season, as they were eighth in batting runs against that pitch. But, they were much less effective against sliders and changeups.
Canning had success with the Angels in outings where his fastball usage was 35% or lower. I would expect that here with the Mets and we’ll see a new-look pitcher who has always generated some good whiff rates on his secondaries to survive with that bad fastball. With a career Stuff+ of 83 and -29 career pitching runs on the fastball, I cannot fathom how the Angels didn’t make this change.
I really do like Arrighetti, but his walk rate in the Spring is really concerning. He’s looking to revamp his arsenal as well, as his fastball was very hittable last season. However, while he struck out 20 batters over 17 innings, he also walked 16. With a guy like Juan Soto in the Mets lineup, they’re going to be at or near the top of the league in BB% and they have a lot of responsible hitters in the lineup that will make Arrighetti work to get in the zone.
Sometimes guys like Arrighetti, who is absolutely an analytics guy, can overthink things a little bit and I think that’s a possibility here and was late in Spring, as he allowed eight runs on nine hits with a 13/9 K/BB ratio over his last 11 innings of work. There is no denying the raw potential of the stuff and he had a 3.18 ERA with a 3.78 FIP in the second half last year.
I just don’t love this matchup. I think the Mets are able to play from in front, generate more run-scoring chances, and take this one down as a small underdog.
Pick: Mets +100
Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks (-122, 9)
8:10 p.m. ET
The Diamondbacks will send Brandon Pfaadt to the hill for his first start after signing a five-year contract extension. The Cubs will send out Shota Imanaga for his second start of the season, as he started the second game for Chicago in Tokyo against the Dodgers.
The handicap here is on Imanaga, who was sick coming back from Japan and did not make another start in between his outing in Japan and this one. He did throw an extended bullpen session, with simulated up-downs and all of that, but I’d be surprised to see him work extremely deep in the game today.
The Diamondbacks led the league in offense against LHP last season in both wOBA and wRC+, as that was a really strong split for them. Not all of the huge hitters are back, but Ketel Marte and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. were the two best and they are back. It’s a tough assignment for Imanaga, especially if he isn’t going to be all that sharp and I don’t think that he will be.
Craig Counsell had him around 70 pitches in Tokyo. I presume he threw around 75 in that extended bullpen, as I looked and looked and looked, but couldn’t find a concrete answer. Nevertheless, now he’s facing a real MLB lineup and a really good one at that, as the Diamondbacks have scored 14 runs in two games thus far and have picked up right where they left off last season when they led the league in runs scored.
I fully expect Imanaga to have a strong season, but I think he’s going to get off to a slow start. Also, much like I’ve tried to do with others, he’s coming off of a bit of an innings increase and made seven more starts last season compared to his final season in Japan.
Pick: Shota Imanaga (CHC) Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-105)
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Dodgers (-225, 8)
9:10 p.m. ET
The Tigers have not looked totally overmatched against the Dodgers, who still have the dream of a 162-0 season intact. Detroit lost a one-run game on Opening Day and then came up short in extra innings yesterday, allowing a five-spot in the 10th. It has been a tough start to the year for the Detroit bullpen, but I think they’re absolutely live for the win tonight.
Keep in mind that when you take +185 type underdogs, they’re going to lose more often than win, so you have to pick your spots to take a swing. This is a spot to take a swing because I love the profile of Reese Olson for this season. Olson is a true breakout candidate to me coming off of a really good year with a 3.53 ERA, 3.64 xERA, and a 3.17 FIP. He added a bit of velo in the Spring and that could help generate some more whiffs with his fastball.
As it is, Olson ranked in the 85th percentile in Pitching Run Value last season, including an 87th percentile Chase% and a 75th percentile Whiff%. When you consider the low Whiff Rate on his fastball, it’s easy to see why he uses his slider and changeup as much as he does. He also ranked in the 86th percentile in GB% and 85th in Barrel%. He will allow some hard-hit contact, but it is typically on the ground and that is a lot less detrimental. He doesn’t allow a lot of pulled fly balls, which is what you want to avoid with the Dodgers. Well, that and walks, and he had a 7.1% BB% that ranked in the 64th percentile last season.
I’m sure Roki Sasaki will have an excellent MLB career and could very well be excellent today. I do think this start is a bit of a whirlwind as he makes his Dodger Stadium debut after making his MLB debut in Tokyo a couple weeks ago. He walked five batters in three innings in that outing. I would anticipate he has a pretty short leash here, too, as the Dodgers try to monitor his workload, as he’s never thrown more than 130 innings in a pro ball season.
LA obviously has a bevy of arms, but long relievers are typically not great pitchers, so it’ll be interesting to see how Dave Roberts plans this out after Sasaki’s exit.
I just think that the Tigers have a potentially elite SP on the mound in Olson, have been competitive in every game, and this price is worth taking a shot.
Pick: Tigers +185
