MLB Best Bets Today May 10

A busy day of baseball won’t begin until 4:05 p.m. ET, as we have three games with first pitches at that time and another one at 4:10. That means that the games are pretty heavily clustered, but also means that we don’t have to rush it with our analysis and can grab that cup of coffee and ease into the Saturday slate.

Weather looks like a non-factor across the board today, as we have a few games with helping breezes and our first 90-degree game in Sacramento, where Overs have been popular wagers with the betting market. We also have one of the few Tampa outdoor games with a helping wind and temps in the mid-80s. There are some games where we could see a Home Run Derby played, which should make the day that much more fun.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for May 10:

St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 9) at Washington Nationals

4:05 p.m. ET

A lot of red will be on the field and in the stands for this matinee in D.C. between the Cardinals and Nationals. Andre Pallante gets the nod for the visiting Birds, while Trevor Williams gets the call for the host squad.

It will be a seasonable day with temps in the mid-70s and a breeze blowing across the field, so we’ll see if that gives any kind of boost to the bats. There’s going to be a lot of contact in this game, so that’s an encouraging starting point for taking the Over. Williams has an 18.8% K% on the season, which puts him in the 30th percentile and his 17th percentile Whiff% with a fastball that wouldn’t get a speeding ticket in Texas means the Cardinals should put a lot of balls in play. Williams is a positive regression candidate with a 5.86 ERA, 3.70 xERA, and a 4.18 FIP, as his .360 BABIP and 68% LOB% should improve, but he’s given up nine runs on 14 hits in his last 10.2 innings, so the command isn’t there yet.

Pallante is basically just out there eating innings for the Cardinals because they have no other options. He has a 4.75 ERA with a 5.41 xERA and a 5.44 FIP, so his numbers could be even worse. His 77.3% LOB% is doing a lot of heavy lifting and his 66.1% GB% has kept him from getting beaten by a lot of extra-base hits. That being said, he has allowed six homers in 36 innings already, after allowing eight in 121.1 innings last season.

Pallante’s 13.3% K% and 10.1% BB% are not good numbers, as he ranks in the bottom 3% in K% and 32nd percentile in BB%. He’s in the 12th percentile in Hard Hit% and doesn’t get many chases outside the zone. Typically a guy with reverse platoon splits, both lefties and righties are hitting him this season, with lefties posting a .356 wOBA in 74 PA and righties a .360 wOBA in 84 PA.

Pallante has also struggled outside the friendly confines of Busch Stadium, which has been a pretty good pitcher’s park over the years. He’s allowed a .396 wOBA and has a 5.66 ERA in 20.2 innings, with five of his six homers allowed coming on the road. He has allowed 15 runs over his last four starts.

The Cardinals will probably throw five lefties at Williams, who has allowed a .398/.436/.639 slash to lefties this season with a .456 wOBA in 94 PA.

The Nationals have the league’s worst bullpen, coming in with a 7.29 ERA and a 4.90 FIP over 129.2 innings. The Cardinals have a 4.24 ERA that ranks 19th. Over the last 14 days, the Cardinals are seventh in relief ERA at 2.84, but most of their primary arms haven’t pitched in a few days, so rust could be a factor.

Pick: Cardinals/Nationals Over 9 (-120)

Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals (-118, 7)

7:10 p.m. ET

There is no question about today’s top pitching matchup. It comes at Kauffman Stadium between Garrett Crochet and Cole Ragans. The two superstar left-handers are having very strong seasons, as Crochet comes in with a 2.02 ERA with a 3.26 xERA and a 2.84 FIP, while Ragans boasts a 3.79 ERA with a 2.28 xERA and a 2.38 FIP.

Ragans just racked up his fourth start of the season with at least 10 strikeouts. He has struck out 38.5% of opposing batters. However, the Red Sox, who do strike out a lot and will swing and miss, have the 10th-lowest K% against LHP. By comparison, they have the seventh-highest K% against righties.

Ragans has made seven starts and here are the teams he has faced – White Sox, Rockies, Tigers, Guardians, Twins, Brewers, Guardians. In terms of overall wOBA, those teams currently rank 30th, 28th, 7th, 14th, 20th, 24th, and 14th. However, if we look just at performance against lefties, those teams are currently 27th, 23rd, 5th, 18th, 20th, 22nd, and 18th.

Ragans is obviously great, but the majority of his outings have come against below average offensive teams. Boston is 10th in wOBA overall and seventh in wOBA against LHP. In that start against the Tigers, who are the top-five offense against LHP, Ragans allowed five runs on six hits over just four innings and surrendered his highest average exit velocity of the season.

Crochet’s eight starts have been against the Twins, Blue Jays, Mariners, White Sox x2, Blue Jays, Orioles, and Rangers, so not exactly a murderer’s row, but the Royals are not a very good offensive team.

I have no interest in backing a fatigued Red Sox bullpen or going head-to-head with a solid Royals pen, but I’ll gladly take a shot at the 1st 5 on Boston at plus money here.

Pick: Red Sox 1st 5 (+105)

Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros (-130, 8)

7:10 p.m. ET

It will be an emotional evening at Daikin Park, as Lance McCullers Jr. makes his first home start since October 3, 2022. McCullers actually just made his first start since the 2022 playoffs last time out and gave up three hits and three walks over 3.2 scoreless innings against the White Sox. McCullers made all of his postseason starts on the road in 2022, so he should get quite the ovation from the home faithful.

I think it will be a tough start for McCullers. He clearly had command and control issues in the outing against Chicago, although it was a rain-shortened start, so maybe there were some grip issues. Five of the 10 balls in play were 95+ mph and he only had a 27.8% F-Strike% with a 5.7% SwStr%. The stuff was clearly not very sharp and I’m not expecting it to be here either. He also sat just 91.8 mph with the sinker, a drop of over a mph from where he was in 2022 and over 2 mph from his career average.

Meanwhile, this should be a good matchup for Brady Singer. He’s got a 3.66 ERA with a 3.62 xERA and a 3.97 FIP in his 39.1 innings of work. I don’t think his .250 BABIP is sustainable, but his 69.2% LOB% should get stronger as the season goes along. Singer hasn’t had the same SwStr% or Chase% that he had in his first two starts, so that is a little bit of a red flag, but this Astros lineup should fit well with his strengths.

Houston is 23th in MLB in wOBA against RHP at .304. They have just a .365 SLG in that split. Singer has been very good against right-handed batters throughout his career and the Astros are likely to have eight or nine in the lineup today. Even this season, we see the standard platoon splits for Singer, as righties are batting .190/.261/.286 with a .251 wOBA, while lefties are swinging at a .229/.301/.434 clip with a .322 wOBA. Lefties have hit four of the five homers he has allowed. For Singer’s career, righties have a .295 wOBA, while lefties have a .340 wOBA. 

I don’t think I want to get into a measuring contest with these two bullpens, as Cincinnati’s pen is 11th in ERA at 3.55, but 26th in FIP at 4.65. Meanwhile, Houston’s pen is tops in MLB in FIP and third in ERA. So, I’ll trust the starting pitcher handicap and go with the Reds for the 1st 5, trading 14 cents off the full-game number.

Pick: Reds 1st 5 (+100)

Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners (-135, 8.5)

9:40 p.m. ET

The Blue Jays are still a long way from home as they play the middle game of this series against the Mariners. It will be Bowden Francis for the visitors and Logan Evans for the hosts, as Evans makes his third start after replacing Logan Gilbert in the M’s rotation.

Swapping one Logan for another is not a great situation for the Mariners, given that Gilbert is one of the AL’s top hurlers and Evans is a youngster who started pro ball in 2023, but he moved quickly in the Seattle system and made 32 starts over 107 innings last year in Double-A with a 3.20 ERA and a 3.83 FIP. He had five Triple-A starts this season with a 3.86 ERA and a 2.75 FIP over 25.2 innings of work.

Evans’ MLB career is off to a bit of a slow start, as he has allowed eight runs on 13 hits in 10 innings with an 8/5 K/BB ratio, but he got really unlucky last time out against the Rangers. He gave up six runs on 11 hits with a .579 BABIP in that start, but he didn’t allow a Barrel and only had a 31.6% Hard Hit%. He got ahead in the count and threw a lot of strikes, but didn’t have much luck on batted balls.

Well, I expect him to have better fortunes in this start. Evans has a bad sinker, but he has a solid cutter and a tremendous sweeper. His spinny stuff has high spin rates, so I think he can rely on that against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 28th in batting run value against sliders (or sweepers) at -18.4 runs. Only the Pirates and Nationals are worse. The Blue Jays are also 29th in batting runs against cutters at -9.7. Evans should rely heavily on those two pitches for outs today and they happen to be his two best offerings.

Francis has been hit in the face by a ton of regression this season compared to last season. His K% is down, his BB% is up, and the fly balls he got away with last season have not had the same result this season. He owns a 5.66 ERA with a 6.92 xERA and a 6.79 FIP in his 35 innings of work.

Francis has allowed an obscene 49.1% Hard Hit% and a 12.5% Barrel%. His Chase% is down, his SwStr% is down, and his Stuff+ numbers have fallen on every single one of his pitches. Even with the handicap of T-Mobile Park, the Mariners are still sixth in wOBA at .334 and 10th in wRC+ at home. This has been a good offense and is an even better offense when you can’t generate a lot of swings and misses against them.

With a rested Seattle bullpen and a Blue Jays pen that has had a high workload and a tough road trip, I like the Mariners today, even at a bit of a price.

Pick: Mariners -135