MLB Best Bets Today May 24

The Orioles and Red Sox were unable to play both games on Friday, so instead they’ll attempt to play two on Saturday, giving us a 16-game slate for May 24. We’ve got a lot of back-end starting pitchers on the mound, as we don’t have nearly the number of aces that we had on the hill last night. We’ll see how that plays out, as we’ve got games from 1:05 p.m. ET all the way until after 10 p.m.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for May 24:

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays (-118, 9)

7:05 p.m. ET

The Jays and Rays continue their series down in the Sunshine State with a matchup between Jose Berrios and Shane Baz. It will be the usual kind of day in Florida with temps in the 80s, humidity percentages rising, and rain hovering in the area. But, it should still be a good day for hitting, as we have two guys with suspect command that throw a lot of strikes.

Berrios enters this start with a 4.19 ERA, 5.11 xERA, and a 4.71 FIP, as he’s seen an increase in his BB% this season and an 80.4% LOB% is doing some heavy lifting, much like it did last season, to make his ERA look better than it should. Of concern for me here is that Berrios’s GB% is down to 40.7%, one of the lower marks that he’s had recently. This is a good park for offense and he comes in with a 14.1% HR/FB% while running a 10% BB%.

Berrios has allowed an 11.8% Barrel% in his 169 batted ball events thus far and has allowed a 41.4% Hard Hit%. He is a guy that is in the zone a lot and is generating his lowest Chase Rate since 2018, so the Rays offense should have a pretty good chance at success today.

But, I think the Jays offense does as well. Baz comes in with a 5.33 ERA, a 3.99 xERA, and a 4.85 FIP. He, too, has had a homer problem, allowing a 16.7% HR/FB% and 1.65 HR/9. He, too, has some concerning contact management numbers with a 45% Hard Hit% and an 11.4% Barrel%.

Baz actually started the season on a high note, allowing just three runs on 12 hits in his first 19 innings of work. He struck out 27 batters in those first three starts against just four walks. In six starts across 30 innings since then, Baz has a 7.80 ERA with a 6.51 FIP. He has a paltry 21/15 K/BB ratio and has allowed 26 runs on 38 hits with a 50% Hard Hit% and a 12% Barrel%.

I’m not keen on either starter here, so I do like both team totals Over at plus money, as the Rays are 2.5 at +110 and the Jays are 2.5 at +114. The Over 5.5 alt 1st 5 total is +124, but there is the chance that one of these starters overperforms my expectation here, so I’d rather take both and think going 1-1 with a mild profit is the worst-case scenario.

I also like the Blue Jays here, so hopefully it will be Berrios if it’s one of them. I don’t think the gap between Berrios and Baz warrants Toronto as an underdog and they have a top-10 offense by wOBA over the last 14 days, while the Rays do not. The Rays, though, are 10th in home HR/FB%, so that’s why I think they can scratch out some runs against Berrios.

Picks: Blue Jays -102; Blue Jays 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+114); Rays Team Total Over 2.5 (+110)

Philadelphia Phillies (-175, 10) at Sacramento Athletics

10:05 p.m. ET

While doing my research this morning, I came across a really interesting article from Matt Gelb that helped me dig in a little bit more to the Phillies vs. Athletics game for tonight. Gelb caught up with Zack Wheeler, who was terrific last night, but had a lot to say about the pitching mound at Sutter Health Park. It is from The Athletic, so you need a subscription, but here’s a snippet.

“Wheeler is not the only pitcher who has complained about the mound quality. Luis Severino, the A’s prized offseason addition, has a 0.72 ERA in four road starts and a 6.20 ERA at Sutter Health Park. Severino recently threw a between-starts side session not from the bullpen mound but instead on the main stadium mound in a quest to find his footing.”

So, Severino has some gnarly home/road splits. What about tonight’s starter, Jeffrey Springs? Well, he’s made 10 starts this season and has a 3.91 ERA with a 4.43 FIP. In 20 home innings, Springs has a 6.30 ERA with a .289/.351/.506 slash and a .364 wOBA against, with just 15 strikeouts against 10 walks. On the road, Springs has a 2.45 ERA in 33 innings with a 26/11 K/BB ratio and a .179/.250/.308 slash against and a .251 wOBA.

Springs has made four home starts and has allowed a first-inning run in three of them. The Cubs scored 10 runs, four in the second inning and eight by the end of the fourth inning, in the one game where he didn’t. He’s given up eight first-inning runs across the other three starts.

Sanchez is a heavy ground ball guy, so I do worry about the tilt he might be able to get if he really can’t dig in and finish off his delivery. Wheeler noted in that Gelb article that he was “throwing all arm”, so he threw way more four-seam fastballs than usual. Maybe a sinker-heavy approach from Sanchez will serve him well, but he does have a terrific changeup, too.

Either way, I’m looking at a few things here. Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) is -120 (listed as Over 0.5 on DraftKings). I like that bet. The Phillies are also a top-five offense against lefties, so this could be a very tricky matchup for Springs. The Athletics are actually sixth in wOBA against LHP, so we’ll see how Sanchez fares as well, especially adjusting to the mound. The Gelb article does mention that the grounds crew was working well after the game, so maybe they fixed the problem. I don’t know, but it’s another hot, dry day in Sacramento and they’ve known about this before last night and it still seems to be a problem.

If you scroll down on the 1st Inning tab at DraftKings, you’ll see the Phillies Yes Run First Inning (again, listed as Over 0.5) at +175. I think that’s a decent investment as well, as Springs has made three of his four May starts on the road, including the last two.

Springs is also a fly ball pitcher and the wind will be blowing out in Sacramento, which has played as the best offensive park in baseball this season. Phillies 1st 5 Over 2.5 Runs at -115 is another play I like. Springs has allowed four homers in just 20 innings at home compared to three in 33 innings on the road. Righties own a .304/.366/.551 slash against him in 82 PA at Sutter Health Park, so if you’re looking for a potential HR guy, Trea Turner (+400), Nick Castellanos (+390), or Alec Bohm (+550) could be options.

Picks: Over 0.5 Runs 1st Inning (Yes Run First Inning) -120; Phillies Run 1st Inning (+175); Phillies 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-115)