MLB Best Bets Today May 31

Another day on the diamond beckons with all 30 teams in action and a lot of mid-afternoon start times. It looks like we should get all 15 games in as well, as the weather forecasts are pretty timid across most of the home cities. The Brewers and Phillies are most threatened for this Saturday slate, but weekends give teams a lot more leeway with the earlier start times.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for May 31:

Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles (-170, 8.5)

4:05 p.m. ET

The White Sox and Orioles battle it out after a low-scoring 2-1 decision last night. I think we’ll see some more offense today with Davis Martin and Dean Kremer and I think we’re especially going to see it from the Baltimore side of the spectrum.

Martin is sitting on a big bubble of regression, as he comes into this one with a 3.45 ERA, but a 5.28 xERA and a 4.23 FIP in his 62.2 innings of work. I can’t see a 74.8% LOB% sticking around long for a guy with a 14.6% K% and I don’t expect the .284 BABIP to continue with a 46.1% Hard Hit% and a 9.3% Barrel%. Martin had a .321 BABIP against last season with much stronger contact management numbers. His BA against right now is .260, but his xBA is .304 and his xSLG is .497.

His .322 wOBA comes with a .368 xwOBA. He’s good at getting grounders and limiting walks, but that’s about it, as he ranks in the bottom 6% in xBA, bottom 5% in K%, and his contact management numbers aren’t much better, ranking in the 17th percentile in average exit velo and Hard Hit%. The high GB% has him in the 36th percentile in Barrel%, but that’s still not good for a guy who ranks in the 73rd percentile in GB%. That’s a lot of Barrels, so when he is leaking up in the zone a bit, things can go poorly.

A lot of things have been really disappointing for the Orioles this season, including their offense, but they draw a pitcher in line for lots of regression with a very low K%, so that should mitigate their biggest weakness of the season, which has been striking out. So I like Over 2.5 for the 1st 5 on Baltimore’s team total at -105, especially with a breeze expected to help the platoon bats on the left-handed side. 

I also like the Orioles full-game team total Over 4.5 at -120, as the White Sox bullpen is 23rd in ERA and 25th in FIP for the season. Most of Chicago’s higher-leverage arms have noticeable ERA/FIP discrepancies and not in a positive way because of high walk rates.

Picks: Orioles 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-105); Orioles Full-Game Team Total Over 4.5 (-120)

Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians (-175, 8)

4:10 p.m. ET

I spent a lot of time staring at this game trying to figure out the best way to play it. Kyle Hendricks still throws a good changeup and the Guardians haven’t hit changeups since the Clinton Administration when they had one of the best lineups ever assembled. Then there’s Slade Cecconi, who looks like a brand-new dude with a 17.3% SwStr% through two MLB starts and a 35.2% CSW%, which is simply insane.

Ultimately, I pored over the Under, Hendricks Over 3.5 Strikeouts, Cecconi Over 5.5 Strikeouts, Cecconi To Record A Win (+175) and finally settled on what I think is my favorite prop of the bunch. I’ll go with Cecconi Over 15.5 Outs at +100.

He’s gone five innings and six innings in his two starts, but he was pulled quickly in his first start against the Reds, as he gave up a double and a single to start the sixth and Stephen Vogt didn’t want him to face Elly De La Cruz for the third time. He pitched better than his final line would indicate, as he gave up just a solo homer over the first five innings. He was pulled with 77 pitches because of the leverage of the plate appearance.

In his second start, he went 85 pitches over six innings against the Tigers. Cecconi has a 69% F-Strike% so he’s working ahead. He has a 55.9% Zone%, so he’s throwing strikes. We already know that the Angels don’t really walk much and Cecconi is peppering the zone. The Angels are seventh in percentage of strikes looking. They are the second-lowest team in foul balls percentage on strikes, so they swing and miss a lot and also take a lot of strikes. Foul balls and walks really run up pitch counts. We shouldn’t get a lot of that here. On the whole, the Angels have the seventh-highest percentage of strikes.

Vogt is trying to trust his starters more this season. He realizes that his bullpen ran out of steam last season and that the usage levels he put on them last year were completely unsustainable. In 2024, a starting pitcher turned the lineup over for a third time in 136 of 161 games (84.5%). This season, a starting pitcher has turned the lineup over in 49 of 56 games (87.5%).

Guardians starting pitchers are already up to 238 PA the third time through the order. They had 598 total plate appearances in that split last season over 161 games. It should be a good day to pitch in Cleveland with temps in the 50s and a lake breeze blowing in from LF at a pretty good clip. I think Vogt lets Cecconi go as long as he can, as he’s really trying to save bullets from the bullpen.

Pick: Slade Cecconi (CLE) Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+100)

Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners (-112, 7)

7:15 p.m. ET

Bryce Miller returns from the IL for the Mariners as they look to get back yesterday’s loss against the Twins. Bailey Ober gets the nod for the visitors, who just got Byron Buxton back from the concussion IL yesterday. This is undoubtedly a better team with Buxton in the mix, so that should provide a nice lift, as Minnesota has been playing well for a sustained period of time now.

Certainly I like Miller and he always has upside pitching at home, but this will be his first outing in 20 days in a real game. He’s thrown side sessions and sim games, but did not make any rehab appearances. He clearly wasn’t himself before the downtime, as he allowed 15 runs over a four-start stretch and walked five Angels in the one start where he pitched “well”. He had five straight starts with a single-digit K% and the stuff on the whole just wasn’t super sharp, as he allowed five of his six Barrels in that four-start stretch.

Maybe he’ll be okay in his return, but I can’t imagine he’ll work overly deep into the game. Andres Munoz blew the save yesterday and has worked back-to-back days. So have Matt Brash and Carlos Vargas. Casey Legumina threw 33 pitches yesterday. If Miller is like a four-and-fly guy today, it’ll be tricky for the Mariners to cobble together 15 outs.

Ober gave up eight runs in 2.2 innings in his first start of the season and still has a 3.41 ERA with a 3.61 FIP. In 10 starts since that abomination, he has a 2.28 ERA with a 3.12 FIP. He isn’t getting a lot of strikeouts, but he’s only walked 10 batters in those 10 starts over 55.1 innings of work. He has actually allowed just a 30.5% Hard Hit% over his last seven starts, so it took him a little bit to settle in, but he has now.

The weird thing about Ober’s low K% is that he still has a SwStr% of 13% and a F-Strike% of 69.7%. The markets are onto this notion with a strikeout prop of 5.5 today. I was hoping to find a 4.5. Nevertheless, the Twins bullpen, which is solid again, had Thursday off and light days on Wednesday and Monday, so all of Rocco Baldelli’s relief arms are available to him here.

Pick: Twins -108