MLB Best Bets Today September 13
Key Highlights:
- Royals vs. Phillies Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs. Twins Pick
College football takes center stage on Saturdays from here on out, but we’ve got a 15-game schedule on the diamond and plenty of games full of playoff intrigue. Four games in each league and seven interleague matchups are on the slate, with the first pitch of the day at 2:20 p.m. ET.
The odds screen for MLB isn’t as active as it usually is with so many bettors diving into those CFB waters, but there are always going to be some betting opportunities on the baseball side.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 13:
Royals vs. Phillies Prediction (-150, 9.5)
6:05 p.m. ET
After a devastating loss to the Guardians on Thursday night, the Royals got to Philadelphia and looked lifeless and overmatched in an 8-2 loss. KC mustered just one run on five hits off of Walker Buehler, who is having the worst season of his professional career, while Michael Lorenzen got pummeled by the Phillies offense.
I’m looking at Taijuan Walker tonight in his matchup against Ryan Bergert, a pitcher that I really like, but he allowed eight runs to the Guardians last time out. Walker’s Outs Recorded prop sits at 15.5 and I like the Over in this one.
Obviously the Royals just got shut down by Buehler, which isn’t a good sign. They also managed just nine runs in the four-game series against Cleveland. Except for an 11-run outburst against Joe Ryan and the Twins on September 6, the Royals haven’t scored more than four runs in a game since August 27.
Walker has not pitched well lately, allowing 13 runs on 25 hits over his last 15 innings of work, but those were road starts against the Mets, Brewers, and Marlins. Now he faces a KC group that ranks 29th in wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days. And it’s a KC offense that never really sees him. Four of Walker’s last five starts have been against NL East opponents, so they know the shape of his pitches and the sequencing he likes to deploy. The Royals don’t really have that luxury, at least not in the batter’s box.
Also, generally speaking, this just isn’t a very good Royals offense. Even with Zack Wheeler’s injury, Walker shouldn’t be a playoff option, so it isn’t like the Phillies will monitor his innings or anything and the offense has the chance to give him enough run support to give the bullpen another lighter workload.
Pick: Taijuan Walker (PHI) Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-110)
Diamondbacks vs. Twins Prediction (-144, 8.5)
7:10 p.m. ET
The Diamondbacks gave one away last night by blowing a two-run lead in the ninth inning, a lead that they got in the top half of the frame. They’ll try to bounce back tonight against Joe Ryan, while the Twins look to do some damage against Ryne Nelson.
I’m looking at the Arizona offense in this one and like their 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 at -120. Ryan has had a really rough second half. His ERA is two full runs higher than it was in the first half at 4.72 and he’s allowed a .449 SLG and a .321 wOBA, increases of 116 and 59 points off of his first 109.1 innings of work.
He’s still running a high K%, but nearly 75% of his pitches are fastballs or sliders, with one of the higher fastball usage rates at 51.5%, which is a big reason why he’s had a home run issue throughout his career. Since the start of August, so post-Trade Deadline, the Diamondbacks have the fifth-lowest Whiff% on fastballs at 18.8% and are right in the middle on sliders at 33.2%. Ryan’s second half slider usage has been all over the place. And he’s a guy who usually gets hurt in August and he hasn’t this season, so I wonder how healthy and fresh his arm actually is.
In that same breath, he’s allowed five runs three times in his last four starts. With this total at 8.5 and the 1st 5 Team Total for Arizona at 1.5 when they’re also throwing a solid starter in Nelson, I think there’s some good equity in this bet.
Pick: Diamondbacks 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-120)
