MLB Best Bets Today September 27

The penultimate day of the MLB regular season has arrived. Everybody will play Game 161 today and some teams have the chance to guarantee that they will play past Game 162 tomorrow. It is a very important day for a lot of teams out there and a lot of individuals as well, as time is running out to hit those individual benchmarks and accomplishments.

We have day games and night games and I’ll focus on the later ones with some lead time as we look ahead to this Saturday slate.

 

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for September 27:

MLB Player Props Today (0.25 units unless noted)

I’ll be looking at some different player props based on players looking for round numbers, career-highs, etc. as the week goes along. Some of these will be smaller risks with some potentially higher rewards. I think it is especially good to look at these where team success no longer matters as much as trying to hit these individual benchmarks, as players may get a little more selfish.

CJ Abrams 1+ HR (+620)

Abrams got one closer to hitting 20 yesterday, as he homered off of Yoendrys Gomez in the sixth inning of Chicago’s 10-9 win. These two teams aren’t playing for anything except pride and I feel like Abrams is going to take his shots when he can against Tyler Gilbert and likely bulker Sean Burke.

Gilbert is a lefty, so that could be a “waste” of the first plate appearance for Abrams, but he should get a couple against the right-handed Burke, who has allowed 22 HR in 130 innings at the MLB level this season. Lefties have hit 11 of those and he has allowed three in just 12.1 innings this month and six over his last 24.1 innings. If Abrams doesn’t do it this afternoon, I’d take him again tomorrow against right-hander Shane Smith.

Players away from big “numbers” in the HR department:

  • Shohei Ohtani (54)
  • Eugenio Suarez (49)
  • Pete Alonso, Jo Adell (37)
  • Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Matt Olson, Willy Adames (29)
  • Fernando Tatis, Dansby Swanson, Ramon Laureano (injured), Mickey Moniak, Ben Rice (24)
  • Ian Happ, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bobby Witt Jr., Giancarlo Stanton, Freddie Freeman (23)
  • Max Muncy, Ryan McMahon, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Gavin Sheets, Kody Clemens, Geraldo Perdomo, Yainer Diaz, Logan O’Hoppe, Anthony Volpe, Ivan Herrera, Drake Baldwin, CJ Abrams (19)

Note: Michael Harris II hit his 20th HR last night! Pete Crow-Armstrong hit his 30th, as did Seiya Suzuki, who also got over 100 RBI. Christian Walker hit #25. 

Players away from big “numbers” in the SB department:

  • Jose Caballero (48)
  • Chandler Simpson (44)
  • Oneil Cruz, Juan Soto (38)
  • Bobby Witt Jr., Elly De La Cruz (37)
  • Nico Hoerner (29)
  • Julio Rodriguez (28)
  • Zach McKinstry, Dansby Swanson, Ceddanne Rafaela, Sal Frelick, Jordan Beck (19)
  • Josh Lowe, Dane Myers (injured), Tyler Freeman, Anthony Volpe, Matt McLain (18)

Players away from big “numbers” in the RBI department:

  • Geraldo Perdomo (98)
  • Cody Bellinger, Jo Adell (97)

MLB Picks Today

Los Angeles Dodgers at Seattle Mariners (-120, 7)

9:40 p.m. ET

Tyler Glasnow and Logan Gilbert are both throwing the ball very well as we head towards the postseason. Glasnow has a 3.30 ERA with a 3.26 xERA and a 3.82 FIP over his 17 starts covering 87.1 innings of work. Because the Dodgers won’t have a bye, we’ll have to see how deep Glasnow actually goes into this one, seeing as how he’d probably be lined up to be their Game 3 starter behind Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, unless they opted to go with the youngster Emmet Sheehan, who has been pitching well himself.

Sheehan only pitched one inning yesterday, leaving Justin Wrobleski and Will Klein to throw 70 pitches. Tonight, the Dodgers don’t really have a long man in the bullpen, so there are major questions about how far Glasnow actually goes. Because Jack Dreyer, Edgardo Hernandez, and Alex Vesia are the only rested relievers in the bullpen, I’m thinking Glasnow will at least go a couple turns through the lineup.

The Mariners don’t really have that worry with Gilbert, as they will have extra time off before their ALDS run gets underway. In fact, given the timing of this start for Gilbert, I think he might be their Game 1 starter on Saturday. He has only allowed more than two runs twice in his last nine starts, with a six-run dud at Philly and three runs allowed in Cleveland. He’s allowed just 18 runs in 47.2 innings with a 56/12 K/BB ratio.

The Mariners also have a fully-stocked bullpen today, as maybe Eduard Bazardo is the only guy that they would stay away from. This is a measuring stick type of series for a team heading into the playoffs and I do think that the Mariners will show up focused and engaged today. I’m less certain about the Dodgers, as Clayton Kershaw’s final regular season start is tomorrow and I’d presume that they rally for that.

Pick: Mariners -120

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR