MLB Best Bets Today September 6
Key Highlights:
- Twins vs. Royals Prediction
- Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Prediction
All eyes are certainly on college football today, as we have a jampacked Week 2 slate. But, the MLB season is still chugging towards the finish line, as we have just over three weeks worth of regular season games left to decide some pretty tight playoff races. Maybe those races will tighten up even more tonight.
Even though it’s a Saturday in September and college football is on, we have a lot of night games on the slate, so there are a lot of options and opportunities this evening for those still grinding out the baseball season.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 6:
Twins vs. Royals Prediction (+104, 8)
7:15 p.m. ET
It will be Joe Ryan and Stephen Kolek as the Twins and Royals battle it out tonight. KC is inching closer and closer to the final AL Wild Card spot, so every game is a big one for them moving forward. This will be Kolek’s second MLB start with them and there are some really positive signs since his acquisition.
If you look at Kolek’s worst starts this season, most of them have come when he’s had his lowest GB%. In his five lowest starts by GB%, Kolek has allowed 4, 6, 3, 5, and 5 runs. He’s only done that twice in other outings. Last time out, Kolek had a 68.4% GB% against the Tigers, as the Royals had him mixing in more sliders and changeups to generate more worm-burners. He’s also leveraging the fastball as an eye-level change, relying on the secondaries to get grounders.
Kolek was victimized by a .357 BA and a .452 BABIP in his five minor league starts, so that skewed his numbers quite a bit, along with just a 68.9% LOB%. But the Royals felt his performances were good enough to call him up and he went six terrific innings against the Tigers last time out. Much like they’ve done already with Ryan Bergert, I think they’ve figured out how to optimize Kolek’s arsenal.
Ryan continues to have a strong season with a 3.08 ERA, 3.37 xERA, and a 3.30 FIP. He didn’t have his usual August injury and will set a career-high in innings pitched barring an injury this season. That said, his second half performance has lagged behind his first half, as he’s seen increases of 50 points in BA, 42 points in OBP, and 90 points in SLG over his last 45.2 innings compared to his first 109.1.
While Ryan has stayed healthy, four of his last six starts have featured single-digit SwStr% marks. He only had six such starts in the first half. The Royals have the lowest K% against RHP over the last 14 days by a large margin.
I’ll also put my trust in a KC bullpen that leads the league in ERA over the last 30 days at 2.91 and FIP at 3.13. The Twins, meanwhile, rank 28th in ERA and 27th in FIP in that span.
Pick: Royals +104
Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Prediction (-102, 9)
8:10 p.m. ET
The Red Sox and Diamondbacks continue their series after the D-Backs roughed up prospect Payton Tolle last night en route to a 10-5 win. It was a rough start to the roadie for the Boston boys, as they fell to 34-36 on the road compared to 44-28 at home. What’s weird about the 34-36 road record is that they have a +30 run differential, so they should absolutely be a better visiting team than they have been.
Arizona’s on a bit of a heater right now, winning seven of their last nine, but ‘Box of Chocolates’ right-hander Brandon Pfaadt is on the bump. To reference the classic Forrest Gump line, you never know what you’re gonna get with Pfaadt, who has allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his 28 starts and 4+ runs in 11 starts. Against a Boston lineup that has pummeled righties virtually all season long, I’ll assume we get bad Pfaadt here.
The Red Sox have a .359 wOBA over the last 14 days against RHP and that ranks fifth. The Diamondbacks are 28th in that department, including a K% north of 30%, and get a righty in Lucas Giolito this evening. Obviously Boston has been much better against righties at home, which is just kind of how things work at Fenway Park, but they are an above average offense against righties on the road with a 101 wRC+.
Here in the second half, Pfaadt has allowed a .320/.355/.498 slash with a .364 wOBA and owns a 5.66 ERA over 47.2 innings of work. Those numbers are +50, +32, +26, +22 from where they were in the first half, so he really hasn’t been effective, including a 6.16 ERA in 30.2 innings in August.
Meanwhile, Giolito has been solid of late. He had a couple of rough starts coming out of the All-Star Break, but has allowed just 11 runs in his last seven starts. As mentioned, the Diamondbacks have a really high K% over the last two weeks against righties. While Giolito is not a big strikeout guy, pitching ahead in the count allows him to induce weaker contact and better leverage his secondaries.
Now that the Red Sox are settled in with the time change and the long travel, I think we get a bounce back effort tonight, especially with the primary relievers good and rested after having several days off.
Pick: Red Sox -119
