MLB Best Bets Today September 7:
MLB takes a back seat on Saturday for most people, as we’ve got a ton of college football action all day long. But, the baseball season still has four Saturdays left, so there are still some interested parties. We’re not seeing nearly the handle we usually see and the odds screen isn’t all lit up like it would be before the CFB season gets going, but there are still some chances to make money.
This is a tough weekend overall with a lot of big favorites yesterday and today based on the matchups and how the pitching rotations have fallen. We’ll see if we get some barking dogs today like we did yesterday, with the A’s, Guardians, Mariners, Angels, and Rockies all winning as pups.
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Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 7:
San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres (-148, 7)
8:40 p.m. ET
We’ve got a good pitching matchup and a total reflective of that expectation as Logan Webb and Dylan Cease get together at Petco Park. Webb is the focal point for me in this handicap, as his Outs Recorded prop sits at 18.5.
This will be Webb’s 16th road start of the season and he’s gotten over 18.5 outs in just five of them. He has a 4.29 ERA away from the friendly confines of Oracle Park and has a .280/.336/.386 slash against with a .316 wOBA compared to a .227/.259/.313 slash with a .248 wOBA at home.
Not that it is a bad BB%, but he’s at 7.8% on the road and sits at 4% at home. Also, he’s more aggressive in going for strikeouts on the road with a 21.2% K% compared to a 19.8% mark at home. By actively trying to limit the number of balls in play, Webb ends up working into deeper counts.
Webb hasn’t gotten more than 18 outs in a road start since June 18 at Chicago when he went seven innings. He’s allowed four runs in four of his last six road starts. The Padres have already seen him twice this season and have a lot of exposure against him over the years, so I think that helps the cause here as well.
Pick: Logan Webb Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-120)
