MLB Best Bets Today October 13:
It may be an NFL Sunday, but it is also a NLCS Sunday. The Mets and Dodgers begin their best-of-seven series this evening in California and it should be an exciting Game 1. Kodai Senga will get the start for the Mets, but David Peterson will be waiting in the wings as the piggyback. The Dodgers will turn to big Trade Deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty in hopes of a bounce back effort after a rough outing in the NLDS.
I’ve got my series preview of Mets vs. Dodgers posted, but this one is exclusively about Game 1.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for October 13:
New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers (-162, 8)
8:15 p.m. ET (FOX)
It was a bit of a surprise announcement from Mets manager Carlos Mendoza that Senga would start Game 1 of the NLDS. It is a less surprising announcement that he’ll start Game 1 of the NLCS. Senga only made one regular season start, first dealing with a shoulder injury and then a leg injury. He gave up a leadoff homer to Kyle Schwarber and then pitched mostly clean for two innings, surrendering a walk with three strikeouts.
The Mets were stymied by Zack Wheeler for seven outstanding innings before getting to the Philly pen, so they are technically 1-0 in Senga starts, as he induced two weak pop ups and a lazy fly out to go with his three punchies. His fastball velo was down a little from his one start of the regular season, which is to be expected, as he threw 31 pitches and six of them were his patented ghost fork, inducing three swings and three swings and misses.
Peterson, who was magnificent down the stretch in the regular season, has appeared in three games and hasn’t allowed a run with three strikeouts and three walks. He’s scattered four hits in his outings. The 6-foot-6 southpaw went 2.1 innings on Wednesday and should be set up to go as long as he’s needed in this one. Obviously Peterson’s presence following the right-handed Senga puts Dave Roberts to a few decisions towards the bottom of the lineup, but Senga won’t turn over the top, so you’ll get the lefty Peterson against Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman the second time through and maybe even third.
Peterson had a 2.79 ERA and held opposing batters to a .282 wOBA in 77.1 innings in the second half. He allowed four homers in 43.2 innings in the first half and then four in the second half, so he was much better about keeping the ball in the park and a little bit better about limiting walks. That was a big focus in my series preview and something that will be very important as the series rolls along.
Peterson does have one blind spot. Right-handed batters only had a 16.5% K% and a 10.5% BB% against him, whereas lefties had a 29.7% K% and a 4.7% BB%. The slider is his best pitch and it is less effective against righties. The batted ball results weren’t terrible, as RHB only hit .251 with a .365 SLG, but it is something to watch.
Flaherty gave up four runs on five hits, including a couple of homers, in his NLDS start against San Diego. He struck out only two of the 22 batters he faced with a walk and a hit by pitch. Flaherty was not as sharp with the Dodgers as he was with the Tigers, posting a 3.58 ERA with a 4.16 FIP in 10 starts over 55.1 innings. He had a 2.95 ERA with a 3.12 FIP in 106.2 innings with Detroit. The level of competition was a lot stronger with the league and division change, but Flaherty did see a spike in BB% and his HR/9, while also seeing a K% decrease.
He only had five whiffs in 40 swings in his NLDS start, with one in 15 swings on the fastball. He allowed six batted balls of 100+ mph and two of them left the yard. Four of them were hits. That October 6 start was his first since September 25, so you could argue that the extended layoff made him a tad rusty. He’ll be going a week later in this start, which is closer to normal. From a player props standpoint, Flaherty had reverse platoon splits, meaning righties hit him better than lefties. His SLG against was 95 points higher against righties and his wOBA against was 51 points higher.
Player props are where I’m looking here, as the Dodgers are maybe a little bit too big of a favorite, but I need to see the Mets have success throwing strikes like they did against the Brewers to hold their high walk rate in check. The Brewers did bat .263/.302/.465 in that series, but their pitching failed them.
I like Will Smith Over 0.5 Walks at +150. Smith walked four times in the Padres series, representing four of the 13 free passes drawn. Smith has a 10.6% BB% for his regular season career and a 10.9% for his MLB career in 192 PA. There’s a chance he could get Peterson twice depending on how the game rolls along and he had a 12.3% BB% against lefties this season.
I’m also looking at Jack Flaherty Under 15.5 Outs Recorded. Like most pitchers, he has an extreme third time through the order split, as he held opponents to a .277 and a .264 wOBA the first time through, but a .350 wOBA the third time through with a spike to a .262/.338/.469 slash. He did go over that number in seven of 10 regular season starts with the Dodgers, but the playoffs are a different beast and managers need to be quicker on the trigger. The lack of swing and miss against San Diego is worrisome here, as he had a 96% Z-Contact% and there were 17 foul balls with only 17 called strikes.
Picks: Will Smith (LAD) Over 0.5 Walks (+150); Jack Flaherty (LAD) Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-110)
