MLB Best Bets Today October 6:
Day 2 of the Division Series is here and only four teams are in action. MLB wanted to break up the two leagues and also avoid too many games going up against the NFL, so we’ve only got the two National League series on tap for today.
The only dog to emerge victorious yesterday was the Mets and they’ll look for a commanding 2-0 series lead against the Phillies. In the other series, the Dodgers held serve in a 7-5 decision and can take a 2-0 lead of their own over the Padres.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for October 6:
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (-148, 8.5)
4:08 p.m. ET (FS1)
I sent in a blurb for The VSiN Daily, our free email newsletter, about how there were a lot of pitchers on long layoffs in yesterday’s action, especially with relievers in mind. Well, a few relievers gave up runs, but the Phillies gave up a five-run eighth inning to waste a masterful Zack Wheeler performance in Game 1.
The Mets are the cardiac kids of baseball this postseason, scoring a big win in Game 3 over the Brewers with some ninth-inning heroics and then picking up that victory in the eighth yesterday. We’ll see if they get to the bullpen again or if they do some damage against Cristopher Sanchez, who gets the Game 2 start over Aaron Nola. Sanchez breaks up the righties and is also coming off of an excellent season of his own with a 3.32 ERA, 3.51 xERA, and a 3.00 FIP over 181.2 innings. Sanchez was strong last season as well, but nearly doubled his innings output this season and actually improved in all three of those run metrics.
The only downside to Sanchez is that he does pitch to contact. His 20.3% K% was below league average, but he limited hard contact with a 34.3% Hard Hit% and a 5.4% Barrel%. We’ll see what, if any, success the Mets can have against a contact-oriented guy after having 30 swings and misses against Wheeler yesterday.
Sanchez hasn’t pitched since September 25, so this is another one of those long layoffs. It didn’t negatively impact Wheeler at all, but he’s a true playoff stud and maybe the best pitcher in baseball. Sanchez had a great year, but has one postseason start of just 2.1 innings to his name.
New York finished the season with a .334 wOBA against lefties and a 118 wRC+. In the second half, specifically, they were 10th with a .322 wOBA and a 110 wRC+. The full-season numbers both ranked in the top five and, while they were well above average in the second half, they were better in the first half.
The Game 2 starter for the Mets is Luis Severino, who had the bare bones definition of a quality start in the Wild Card Round against the Brewers. He allowed four runs, three earned, on eight hits over six innings. He only struck out three, but he only walked two and got some good run support in that Game 1 effort. Severino finished the regular season with a 3.91 ERA over 182 innings and a 4.21 FIP. Like Sanchez, he ran a below average K% at 21.2%, but also had a 35% Hard Hit% and a 5.7% Barrel%.
Philly was a below average offense against righties in the second half, a second half where they were only a .500 team, so their performance in that split had a lot to do with it. Severino also just pitched on October 1, so he’s on his regular turn in the rotation here.
I like Sanchez Under 4.5 Strikeouts here. He’s a ground ball guy and that’s why he’s okay with pitching to contact. I think teams are a little more aggressive at the plate against low-walk hurlers in the postseason because they want to be able to seek out fastballs in early-count situations. Also, his K% dropped to 19.9% in the second half. I could also envision a bit of a shorter start if he gets in trouble because the Phillies don’t want to risk going down 0-2.
Pick: Cristopher Sanchez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (-142, 8)
8:03 p.m. ET (FS1)
I felt like the Dodgers were taking a bit of a chance sending out Yoshinobu Yamamoto yesterday in Game 1. As it turns out, he wasn’t good, but the bullpen and the offense bailed out the decision to take down the victory. Dylan Cease was equally bad and an example of how the long layoff can affect pitchers. Unfortunately, Cease only walked two in his 3.1 innings, as the Dodgers found success being aggressive against him. Cease actually had 15 swings and misses, so the stuff wasn’t bad overall, just inconsistent.
Now the Dodgers send out Jack Flaherty against Yu Darvish and that should be an advantage. Flaherty wasn’t quite as good with LA as he was with Detroit, though, as he posted a 3.58 ERA with a 4.16 FIP in 55.1 innings of work after the Trade Deadline. He had a 2.95 ERA with a 3.12 FIP over 18 starts with the Tigers.
Flaherty gave up 10 runs on 14 hits over his final three starts covering 14 innings. I do think it’s entirely possible that he wore down late in the year, as he also had a 14/9 K/BB ratio in that span. His 162 innings were the most that he had thrown since 2019, as he spent most of 2021 and 2022 banged up. Maybe the long layoff was a rather big positive for him.
Darvish missed over three months and returned for five September starts, where he posted a 3.55 ERA in 25.1 innings, but a 5.34 FIP. He allowed six homers in that stretch in starts against the Tigers, Mariners, Astros, White Sox, and Diamondbacks. He had a 25/7 K/BB ratio, so the high FIP was a byproduct of the homers he allowed. He actually only allowed a 32.4% Hard Hit%, but gave up seven Barrels over three of those five starts.
Darvish hasn’t pitched since September 27, so we’ll see if he is negatively impacted by the long time on the shelf.
I have to give a ton of credit to the Dodgers bullpen, but because the NL got the short straw by playing back-to-back days, the bullpen is a worry. Specifically, Blake Treinen threw 39 pitches yesterday. I’m sure he says he’s fine, but I think Dave Roberts would want to avoid using him. Michael Kopech threw 22 pitches and Ryan Brasier threw 20. After not pitching for about a week, relievers can get a little rusty. It’s good that those guys were used, but I’ll be curious to see how they recovered if they are called upon.
In this one, I like the Dodgers Team Total Over 2.5 Runs at +110 for the 1st 5. Darvish has allowed 16 HR in 58 postseason innings and gave up six in those five starts in September. I don’t think his stuff is as sharp or polished as he’d like it to be and a locked-in Dodgers lineup is a lot to get through. Also, I think pitcher rust is a real thing and we could see an example of it here today.
Pick: Dodgers 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (+110)
