MLB Best Bets Today April 17:
Just like Monday, we’ll have 20 of the league’s 30 teams in action on Thursday. There are 10 games and only one of them is an interleague matchup. There are several day games and early starts among the 10 games. That does limit the card for my purposes, given the need to give lead time to the readers, but Greg Peterson does post his picks the night before, so that’s a good way for you to get a jump on the afternoon action.
The MLB season is officially three weeks old. I gave an update on Monday about offense around the league and how it hasn’t been very impressive thus far. I do think numbers will improve, but we were tracking towards the lowest batting average in at least the last 100 years and the lowest slugging percentage since 1992.
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Over the last few days, we’ve seen the league-wide BA go up one point and the league-wide SLG go up three points. So, things are slowly moving in a positive direction, which should continue as we get warmer weather. I haven’t seen anything definitive about the baseball being different, but we did lose two of the better pitcher’s parks in the AL with Tropicana Field and Oakland Coliseum not in use.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year, I intend to work in more props, derivatives, and maybe even some parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and attack some different markets. What worked for me in the past has not worked as well the last two years, so I’m looking to make some changes and that includes my bet distribution by type and market.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 17:
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (-110, 9)
7:05 p.m. ET
We start with a toss-up game at George M. Steinbrenner Field, as the Yankees make their first regular season visit to their Spring Training home. The dynamics of this game are a bit awkward and we’ll likely see a very pro-Yankees crowd in Tampa here.
Will Warren gets the call for the Yankees. Warren hasn’t had great results yet, as he has allowed eight runs on nine hits, but he does have 15 strikeouts in 14 innings of work. He’s also walked seven batters, but the Rays don’t walk a whole lot, as they come in ranked 22nd in BB%. Warren’s other starts have been the Giants, Pirates, and Diamondbacks, who enter today 7th, 10th, and 2nd in BB%.
Warren has a very impressive profile by Stuff+, as four of his five pitches grade as above average per the Eno Sarris metric. Warren has only thrown a first-pitch strike 50.9% of the time and has a low Chase Rate, yet he still has an 11% SwStr% and over a strikeout per inning. That’s impressive given how he’s had to battle back in counts. He’s generating a lot of swings and misses in the zone with a 67.7% Z-Contact%, which is a terrific sign going forward.
Taj Bradley goes for the Rays here and I have concerns. Thus far, he’s been able to navigate two starts at Steinbrenner Field, but he’s a fly ball guy facing the top offense in baseball in Barrel% and Hard Hit%. Tropicana Field is a great pitcher’s park. Steinbrenner Field is not. The park is playing well above average in terms of home run park factor and has Yankee Stadium dimensions, so I’m not really buying him long-term in that park, as he has a career 39.2% GB%.
Aaron Boone was able to avoid Devin Williams and Luke Weaver in yesterday’s win, so those guys are back to being available today. The Rays pen is in better shape from a usage standpoint, but I don’t have enough concerns about New York’s pen to steer me away from this one.
Pick: Yankees -110
St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets (-135, 7.5)
7:10 p.m. ET
We head to Queens for a matchup between Andre Pallante and Griffin Canning, as the Cardinals take on the Mets in the first game of a four-game set. Canning was pushed back due to an illness, as manager Carlos Mendoza said that he was “under the weather and feeling a little weak”. Canning has a 4.20 ERA with a 4.61 FIP. He’s altered his pitch mix to generate some more swings and misses, but he only has 13 K in 15 innings with eight walks, as the limited rate of fastballs has hurt his control.
Canning has also allowed a ton of hard contact thus far, as he has a 59.1% Hard Hit% against. He’s given up four Barrels as well, as he’s induced a lot more ground balls, but when he’s missed up, he’s been hit with some authority. He does have a 50% GB%, which would easily be a career-high if he can sustain it, but I don’t know that he can and that hard-hit rate will be more problematic if he can’t.
Pallante has some very clear regression signs in his profile. He has a 2.20 ERA with a 4.30 FIP, as he only has 13 K in 16.1 innings. He’s also walked seven. But the bigger issue with him is that he has a 69.6% GB% with a .182 BABIP against. He also has a 91.5% LOB%. Both of those stats are open to regression, especially with Masyn Winn now out for the Cardinals. Winn is a terrific defensive shortstop. Brendan Donovan, who has filled in twice in his absence, only has 90 career MLB innings at SS. Thomas Saggese, who replaced Winn in Pallante’s last start, was just recently made a full-time SS in the minors.
There should be a lot of hard contact from both offenses here and that should generate some run-scoring chances. The Cardinals are third in wOBA thus far at .344 and have a 124 wRC+. The Mets are off to a bit of a slow start on offense, but they are a top-five offense in Hard Hit% and seventh in Barrel%, so I’d expect them to have some better fortunes moving forward.
Pick: Cardinals/Mets Over 7.5 (-118)
