MLB Best Bets Today April 24:
The NFL Draft will dominate the airwaves and maybe even the betting market, if you still have access to those odds in your state, but we also have the NBA and NHL Playoffs, plus a nine-game slate in Major League Baseball. A doubleheader in Kansas City has given us an extra game today, as eight were scheduled, but Mother Nature had other plans.
As usual, the card gets cut down by the timing of everything, as a West Coast start and the desire to give everybody enough lead time to read the article means that I’ll be looking at the late afternoon and evening games here on April 24.
Top MLB Resources:
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year, I intend to work in more props, derivatives, and maybe even some parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and attack some different markets. What worked for me in the past has not worked as well the last two years, so I’m looking to make some changes and that includes my bet distribution by type and market.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 24:
Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals (-118, 8.5)
6:45 p.m. ET
The only game on the slate with two left-handed starters is the finale of the Beltway Series between the Orioles and Nationals. Washington is seeking a sweep in this one, as they’ll send ace MacKenzie Gore to the hill against Cade Povich.
The vibes are less than immaculate right now for the Orioles, who have drawn the ire of plenty of fans on social media and I’ve seen a lot of stuff very critical of Mike Elias, one of the architects of the current roster. The Orioles had clear starting pitching needs coming into the season and opted not to spend much money on that weakness. They’re getting pretty much exactly what they deserve in the minds of most.
Povich is a kid who had high hopes coming up through the system, but his early MLB returns are not ideal. In 98 innings across 20 starts, Povich has a 5.42 ERA with a 4.86 FIP. This season, he’s got a 6.38 ERA with a 6.56 xERA and a 5.21 FIP in his 18.1 innings of work. Povich allowed three homers and walked five in his last start against the Reds, which was his worst start by Hard Hit% and Barrel%.
It looks like the O’s are trying to tinker with Povich. His arm angle and average vertical release point were both up last time out. His horizontal release point was also dramatically different than his previous three starts. It looks like he’s a mechanical mess right now and the Orioles are trying to fix it. Either that or the team has suggested some adjustments that he is looking to implement. Regardless, for a struggling pitcher carrying the weight of the world on his shoulders based on how his rotation mates are doing, this seems suboptimal.
The Orioles offense deserves some blame, too, especially for their performance against left-handed pitching. Baltimore is dead last in wOBA and wRC+ against southpaws over 227 plate appearances. Their .229 wOBA and 47 wRC+ come with a total lack of power with a .228 SLG and a K% north of 25%. That seems like something a guy like Gore can work with, as he’s already had two 13-strikeout games this season and comes in with a 3.41 ERA, 3.04 xERA, and a 2.20 FIP.
Much like yesterday, I’d like to avoid the Nationals bullpen as much as possible. The full-game line is -118 and the 1st 5 line is -130, so the Povich vs. Gore angle is clearly priced in. I’ll go for the sweeter return and take the Nationals 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 at +105. Even if the Nationals don’t get to Povich early, he’s allowed eight earned runs and a .464 wOBA the second time through the order. With a rested bullpen, I think Brandon Hyde will have a quick hook, but that’s still enough time for the Nationals to do some damage.
Pick: Nationals 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (+105)
