MLB Best Bets Today August 14
Key Highlights:
- Only seven MLB games today
- Tigers vs. Twins: Rain threatening Tarik Skubal start?
- Diamondbacks vs. Rockies: Weather giving bats a boost
Seven MLB games are on the docket for Thursday, as more than half of the league enjoys a day off in the dog days of summer. It may not be as competitive of a day as we would like, as there are big favorites in every NL game and one of the two AL games. Two of the games with closer lines are early starts, as the day begins at 1:05 p.m. ET in Baltimore and then we get a midday matinee in Toronto at 3:07.
Most of today’s games have a clean bill of health on the weather front, but Tigers vs. Twins could be impacted by some rain. Something to consider for those who want to load up on Tarik Skubal props, just in case there’s a delay long enough to bump him from the game. Detroit won’t put their best arm at unnecessary risk.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 14:
Arizona Diamondbacks (-175, 12) at Colorado Rockies
8:40 p.m. ET
A helping wind on a warm night at Coors Field is certainly a contributing factor to this total sitting at 12. This is our ninth game of the season with a total of 12 or higher and the eighth game to be held at Coors Field. A wind-blowing-out game at Wrigley Field in June had a total of 12.5 and went over the total in a 10-7 Cubs win.
Eduardo Rodriguez and Bradley Blalock are two contributing factors to this total as well. Rodriguez is running a 5.68 ERA with a 4.55 xERA and a 4.72 FIP. He had a really good month of June and has been awful since with 25 runs allowed over 31 innings of work.
But, my focus here is on Blalock. Both guys are facing the same lineup for the second straight game, as Blalock allowed five runs on seven hits over just 4.2 innings last time out at Chase Field. He allowed seven runs to the lowly Pirates in his last Coors Field start 11 days ago. He also has a home start with 12 runs allowed in 3.2 innings on his ledger this season. Overall, he has a 7.89 ERA with a 5.80 xERA and a 5.90 FIP over just 43.1 innings of work.
The Diamondbacks are third in wOBA over the last 14 days against RHP with a 140 wRC+. Their .373 wOBA is only behind the Brewers and Blue Jays in that span and would take into account their Trade Deadline moves, as this is just for the month of August for them, given that they did not play on July 31.
With first-pitch temps in the upper 80s, wind blowing out early, a rematch against a pitcher that they just had success against, and a full-game total of 12, I can’t help but take the Diamondbacks 1st 5 Team Total Over 3.5 at +100.
Pick: Diamondbacks 1st 5 Team Total Over 3.5 (+100)
