MLB Best Bets Today August 28
Key Highlights:
- 8 games on the MLB schedule today
- Braves vs. Phillies Prediction
It is a lighter MLB card today, as nearly half of the league’s 30 teams catch a break. Eight games are on the docket, including five afternoon affairs, so the pickings are a little bit slim with this article given the time difference out here in Las Vegas and the need for lead time on the write-ups.
We’ll be back with our regularly scheduled programming heading into the weekend with 15 games and all of them at night tomorrow. At least for today, we have the kickoff of Week 1 college football. See all of this week’s CFB content in our Week 1 Hub.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 28:
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction (-187, 9.5)
6:45 p.m. ET
Like I said, there isn’t a lot to choose from across the three night games, but there’s a bet that I do like in the Braves vs. Phillies matchup. Cal Quantrill makes his second start for Atlanta and Aaron Nola makes his third start since coming off the IL. Philadelphia is looking to bounce back from that brutal sweep at the hands of the Mets and a veteran like Nola will be looking to set the tone.
He’s pitched a scoreless first inning in each of his two starts. His first start back was a little rocky as he allowed a couple baserunners, but he worked a 1-2-3 first last time out with two strikeouts. This season, Nola has held opposing batters to a .214/.283/.310 slash in the first inning with a 16/4 K/BB ratio. He’s only surrendered one first-inning homer.
Quantrill has had a bevy of issues this season, but most of them have happened deeper in games. He’s allowed just a .238/.276/.374 slash with a .282 wOBA the first time through the order. He’s allowed a .295/.360/.528 with a .380 wOBA the second time and a .413/.509/.804 slash with a .543 wOBA the third time through. So, he’s actually been okay early on, allowing four homers in 56.2 innings the first time through and 14 after that.
Quantrill has only allowed one first-inning homer in 25 starts and has held the opposition to a .217/.265/.326 slash with a 17/5 K/BB ratio. It is also worth noting that lefties have hit .211/.286/.347 with a .281 wOBA, while righties have hit .335/.380/.591 with a .412 wOBA against him this season. Hopefully that means he can fight his way through Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper without harm.
At plus money, I’ll take the shot at NRFI here. This is under ‘1st Inning’ at DraftKings.
Pick: Braves/Phillies 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (+120)
