MLB Best Bets Today August 7
It is a small card in Major League Baseball with only four games on the docket. Sometimes it’s nice during the grind of the MLB season to have these types of days, but it also limits the options and opportunities that we have. Nevertheless, one play caught my attention today and that’s what I’ll go with.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 7:
Miami Marlins (-121, 8.5) at Atlanta Braves
7:15 p.m. ET
The late game on the card is a 7:15 p.m. ET start in Atlanta, as the Marlins and Braves fire up a weekend set. The big 6-foot-8 right-hander Eury Perez gets the call for the surging fish, while the pitching-strapped Braves call on Carlos Carrasco once again.
Perez has been strong this season with a 2.70 ERA and a 2.79 FIP. His 4.20 xFIP is a byproduct of his high fly ball rate, but he’s found excellent success pitching above or below the Barrel with a 6.4% Barrel% in his 125 batted ball events over 10 starts. He’s also racked up over a strikeout per inning.
The Braves have hit lefties really well, an angle I tried to play yesterday against Jose Quintana, of late, but they have not hit righties well at all. Atlanta is 25th in wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days. They have drawn a 10.9% BB%, otherwise it would look even worse, as their .360 SLG is tied for 26th in that span.
I’ll forever have a soft spot for Cookie, as he battled cancer in his time with the Indians/Guardians and has always felt like an outstanding teammate and great human being. Unfortunately, he’s barely a Major League pitcher at this point. His first start with the Braves was a decent one, as he allowed three runs on seven hits over six innings against the Reds and had good contact numbers against.
Still, the Marlins are a top-10 offense against righties over the last two weeks and have simply been far and away the better team between these two. Overall, Miami is a borderline top-10 offense by wOBA in the second half, while the Reds sit 23rd in wOBA, so this is a tougher assignment for the veteran as the tires are pretty bald at this point.
Miami’s fighting for something. Atlanta is not. Miami has the better pitcher and, shockingly, the better offense. I’ll lay the road price here, especially since the Marlins have scored nearly a run more per game on the road and rank ninth in MLB in road wOBA.
Pick: Marlins -121
