MLB Best Bets Today July 10

A big slate for a Thursday will send us into the final weekend of the first half, as we get 11 games thanks to a doubleheader in Baltimore. Ten games were already scheduled for today, meaning 20 of the league’s 30 teams were set to be in action. The most surprising part to me is that most of the games are in the evening or nighttime hours, as getaway day games are in short supply.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for July 10:

Cleveland Guardians (-136, 8.5) at Chicago White Sox

7:40 p.m. ET

If you needed an example of the randomness of Major League Baseball, note the Guardians and how they lost 10 games in a row before going to Houston and sweeping the Astros. With a three-game win streak in tow on a happy flight from Texas to Illinois, Cleveland steps back down in class to take on the White Sox.

Logan Allen and Jonathan Cannon are the listed starters here and Cleveland should have the upper hand, as the line implies. Allen is a little underwhelming to watch and he’s actually been the losing pitcher in three straight starts, but he’s got a 3.41 ERA over his last 29 innings with a 25/9 K/BB ratio. He’s induced a ton of weak contact with a 33.3% Hard Hit% and an average exit velo against of just 86.4 mph. He’s been doing a good job staying off of the Barrel and has a GB% around 46%.

This probably isn’t the best matchup for a 6-foot-6 sinkerball guy like Cannon. Lefties own a .283/.351/.493 slash with a .364 wOBA against him, which is typically what you’ll find from guys with his arsenal. I’ll be curious to see if the White Sox change things up and go with an opener tonight or not since he’ll get three lefties right out of the chute. In games where Cannon has been a straight starter, he’s allowed a .290/.360/.479 slash with a 5.09 ERA in 58.1 innings. In two bulk outings with an opener, he’s allowed a .200/.245/.380 slash and has a 1.98 ERA.

That’s because the first time through the order, Cannon has allowed a .337/.407/.642 slash with a .444 wOBA. He’s given up 17 runs over those 22.2 innings with just a 13/10 K/BB ratio. In other words, assuming he remains the starter, the Guardians have the opportunity to start fast and play from in front, which should help them ride this recent momentum wave.

So even though my article this season has been Action, just for the sake of simplicity, today’s pick has the caveat that Jonathan Cannon MUST START, which is under the Game Lines section on DraftKings. The Guardians are -137 with that option. 

Another bet I like here is Allen Over 16.5 Outs Recorded. The bullpen has been taxed a bit lately and, frankly, hasn’t been all that good. There is the possibility for a rain delay, which does worry me here, but Allen has gone Over this number in four of his last five starts. The White Sox don’t strike out much and put a lot of balls in play. But, also, Allen doesn’t issue a ton of walks and Stephen Vogt has been trying to push his starters a little more as of late.

Picks: Guardians -137 (Jonathan Cannon (CWS) MUST START); Logan Allen (CLE) Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-125)

Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals (-150, 9)

7:45 p.m. ET

The Nationals and Cardinals have the potential for some runs tonight, as Michael Soroka and Miles Mikolas come together. Soroka gave up seven runs in his last start, so it could be a good opportunity for the Redbirds.

But, I’m actually looking more at Washington’s offense. Mikolas has allowed 13 Barrels in his last two starts, which is just an absurd number. He’s given up eight homers against the Guardians and Cubs, who hit six of them, over his last 10 innings. If we go back to May 28, Mikolas has a 7.75 ERA in his last 36 innings of work and has allowed at least three runs in six of those seven starts.

In all six of those starts, Mikolas has given up at least three runs through five innings. And that’s what I’m looking at here, as the Nationals, who rank ninth in wOBA, but 30th in Barrels, over the last 14 days have a 1st 5 Team Total of 2.5 at +120. Mikolas is objectively terrible with limited strikeout upside. The Nationals have been a solid offense without a lot of contact authority in the last two weeks and have the chance at a lot of contact authority here today.

It’s also going to be quite warm in St. Louis with first-pitch temps around 90 and some good hitting weather. It’s a good pitcher’s park generally speaking, but I’ll fade Mikolas and the 12 homers he’s allowed in his last 36 innings. And, of course, in that same breath, I like Mikolas Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed at -115, so even if he pitches into the sixth or something, we can still get there.

Pick: Nationals 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+120); Miles Mikolas (STL) Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-115)