MLB Best Bets Today July 11:
The next day off for most MLB teams will be Monday, as we have 12 games and 24 teams on the board for today. There are a lot of day games on the slate as well. As you know, lead time is important to me, so I won’t be looking at those morning (PT) starts and will focus on the later games for July 11.
Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Top MLB Resources:
Catch a new edition of the Double Play Podcast with Dustin Swedelson and yours truly Monday and Thursday.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 11:
Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox (-230, 10)
7:10 p.m. ET
Luis Medina and Tanner Houck are the listed starters for this one between the Athletics and Red Sox. Boston came up well short of the 1st 5 Team Total Over yesterday after leaving the bases loaded in the first inning and couldn’t mount anything against JP Sears. We’ll see what happens today, but my focus is on Houck and this matchup with the A’s.
Prior to Houck’s last start on July 5, I spoke about some worries that I had with him going forward. I had Over 8 in that one, which ultimately pushed thanks to a late Red Sox rally, but Houck was not sharp at all. He walked four over 3.1 innings and manager Alex Cora had a really quick hook. He allowed three runs, one earned, on two hits.
I think Houck is really hitting a wall. He only allowed four hard-hit balls and didn’t allow a Barrel in 11 batted ball events against the Yankees, but had those four walks and had an average exit velocity of 91.6 mph. It was his third start in the last five with an average EV over 90 mph. He had allowed nine Barrels over his previous four starts, representing half of his season-long total.
He did bring his vertical release point back up last time out, but that led to control issues. I’m not sure if he’s hurt or if he’s just a mess mechanically right now, but I don’t like what I’m seeing at all.
The A’s are actually third in wOBA this month at .353. They have a .270/.344/.472 slash, so a lot of guys are swinging it well right now. They’re also walking more than normal and have scaled back the strikeouts a little bit. With Houck struggling and a more confident A’s lineup, I see plenty of reasons to look at Under 17.5 Outs Recorded for Houck at +135. At the plus-money price, it’s worth a shot, especially on another favorable night for offense with winds blowing out and warm temps.
Pick: Tanner Houck Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+135)
