MLB Best Bets Today July 31
It is MLB Trade Deadline Day, with the 6 p.m. ET cutoff for transactions looming large for a lot of teams. Fortunately, there are only three MLB games today, so there won’t be a lot of players who have to play a game wondering if they or their teammates will be traded. I still don’t have Rob Manfred’s ear to request that today be a league-wide off day, but this is the closest we’ve ever really come.
One day game in the Bronx and two night games with the Rangers vs. Mariners and Braves vs. Reds are all we’ve got, but those six teams are just fine, since the Rays appear to be a seller and the Braves might be, but the other teams look more likely to add assets if they do anything today.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 31:
Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds (-172, 9.5)
7:10 p.m. ET
There are really only two games on the card for today for my purposes, but this is the one that stood out a little more than the others. The Braves and Reds send two very different starters to the mound, as Atlanta rolls with recently-acquired veteran Carlos Carrasco and the Reds counter with 26-year-old southpaw Andrew Abbott.
Abbott is in the midst of a career year with a 2.09 ERA, 3.20 xERA, and a 3.48 FIP, all career-bests for him over 18 starts and 103.1 innings of work. He’s a fly ball guy and that would normally be a worry at Great American Ball Park, but he has just a 7.9% HR/FB% overall and a 10.7% HR/FB% at home, which is just fine given the park factor and his batted ball distribution.
Abbott has allowed three runs on eight hits over 12 innings in the second half with a 12/4 K/BB ratio. He has allowed more than two earned runs in a start just once dating back to June 4. The Braves have been swinging it pretty well in the second half with a .328 wOBA and a 110 wRC+, but a 13.4% BB% is doing a lot of heavy lifting there, as they rank 20th in SLG. Abbott is very stingy with the free passes.
Carrasco gets what may very well be his last chance, as the veteran of nearly 1,700 innings starts with the Braves. In 52.1 innings at Triple-A, Carrasco had a 3.27 ERA with a 3.88 FIP after failing to stick with the big-league club in the Bronx. Carrasco leveraged his sinker/slider mix more in the minors and produced a 51.6% GB% and some other encouraging signs.
Given how the Braves have completely turned around Tigers castoff Joey Wentz, I’m curious to see what they saw in Carrasco to acquire him to fix their depth issues in the rotation. Atlanta does have the second-best infield defense by Outs Above Average, so if Carrasco can keep up the high ground ball rate, that could work out favorably for him.
I’m taking Under 9.5 in this one. I will caution all bettors that the Reds bullpen has had a mammoth workload lately. Tony Santillan, who got the save last night, is unavailable after working five of the last six days. Emilio Pagan worked three straight from Friday-Sunday and then took the loss with 25 pitches on Tuesday. Scott Barlow has worked three straight days. So, Abbott will be pushed here, but his pitch efficiency is still promising enough to take a shot here.
Pick: Braves/Reds Under 9.5 (-117)
