MLB Best Bets Today June 5

After a very small slate last Thursday, we have a giant one this Thursday, as 12 scheduled games plus a doubleheader aer on the docket. We’ve got a lot of afternoon starts as well, as there are plenty of getaway day games to finish up series that started on either Monday or Tuesday.

The weather doesn’t look to be much of a factor at all today. We had some delays and a postponement yesterday, but Mother Nature has toned it down, so we should have smooth sailing this afternoon and evening.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for June 5:

Chicago Cubs (-142, 9.5) at Washington Nationals

6:45 p.m. ET

The Cubs and Nationals finish up their series with a night game, as Chicago heads to Detroit and Washington stays home to entertain the Rangers. It will be opener Drew Pomeranz tonight for the Cubs, followed in all likelihood by Colin Rea. Chris Flexen is well-rested, so he could be an option as well, as the Nationals could have as many as nine lefties in the lineup tonight.

Rea has allowed a .324/.377/.520 slash with a .387 wOBA to left-handed batters in 115 plate appearances, so you can see why Craig Counsell would like to use Pomeranz, who hasn’t allowed an earned run yet in 13.2 innings, to try to get through CJ Abrams, James Wood, and Nathaniel Lowe at least once.

I’m curious to see how it goes for the Cubs pitching staff, but I’m more interested in fading Jake Irvin. The Washington starter has a 3.93 ERA with a 5.09 xERA and a 4.42 FIP in 73.1 innings of work. He’s very good at avoiding walks, but he’s got an anemic 15.6% K% and his 8.9% K%-BB% is simply not impressive. When he had one of those in 2023, he had a 4.61 ERA with a 5.10 xERA and a 5.30 FIP, as his BB% was higher, but so was his K% that season.

Irvin’s contact management numbers are not going to sustain a .250 BABIP or a 75.3% LOB%, as he’s allowed a 45.7% Hard Hit% and an 11.5% Barrel%. Using his batted ball data, his xwOBA is .362, more than 60 points higher than his actual wOBA. He’s one of the biggest negative regression candidates among starting pitchers.

He ranks in the 14th percentile in xERA and Barrel%, 15th percentile in xBA and fastball velo, 19th percentile in average exit velo and 18th percentile in Chase%, not to mention he’s a bottom-10th percentile pitcher in K% and has one of the lowest Whiff% in the league. When he pitches well, it’s simply batted ball luck.

Irvin draws a Cubs team that is third in wOBA against RHP over the last 30 days at .346 and third overall for the season. He just allowed six runs on 10 hits in five innings to a comparable Diamondbacks lineup and also got lit up by the Phillies on April 30. Hopefully the Cubs are the Regression Monster here with so many signs of worry.

Pick: Cubs 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-120)

Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (-148, 9)

7:35 p.m. ET

The Rangers and Rays wrap up their weekend set in the Sunshine State with a matchup between Jack Leiter and Ryan Pepiot. Pepiot got off to a really rough start in the home run department with eight dingers allowed over his first five starts, but he’s only allowed two homers since. He owns a 2.14 ERA with a 3.22 FIP over his last seven starts and it sure seems like he’s made some adjustments to pitching outdoors at Steinbrenner Field and has done a much better job of limiting Barrels.

The only special things for Leiter this season are his 89th percentile fastball velo and 88th percentile Extension. Two very valuable things, especially for a 6-foot-1 right-hander, but the Rays have handled fastballs, specifically what I consider “premium” velocity well. Leiter has a 21st percentile xERA at 4.74, a 21st percentile Barrel%, and a 14th percentile Chase%. He doesn’t get a whole lot of swings and misses and over 50% of his pitches are fastballs or sinkers.

The Rays are seventh in BA on fastballs of 97+ mph at .268. They are fourth in SLG at .457. They are also eighth in wOBA at .325. Leiter has had a ton of success with his fastball this season, but the Rays look like a lineup that should be able to handle the heat. He’s held the opposition to a .277 wOBA, but has a .351 xwOBA, as the walks and the high Barrel% should catch up with him at some point. A warm and humid night in Tampa Bay feels like a potential spot for that to happen.

Also, the Rays offense is hot. Over the last 14 days, the Rays are collectively hitting .268/.336/.480 with a .355 wOBA. That wOBA is 14 points higher than anybody else over the last two weeks, so they’ve figured it out offensively after a bit of a slow start. The Rangers, meanwhile, own a .192/.256/.283 slash with a .244 wOBA over the last 14 days and rank last in BA and SLG by a large margin in that span.

Picks: Rays 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-110); Rays 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-105)