MLB Best Bets Today May 29

Only eight teams take the field across five games today, as we’ll have a day/night doubleheader in D.C. between the Braves and Nationals. Otherwise, the Athletics, Blue Jays, Rays, Astros, Nationals, and Mariners are the only other teams not enjoying a day away from the diamond.

It is that time of year where teams have limited off days, so we’ll see how they bounce back on Friday. For now, let’s look at the teams that drew the short straw and have to play today.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for May 29:

Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners (-120, 7.5)

9:40 p.m. ET

MacKenzie Gore and the Nationals are a full-game underdog, but an ample 1st 5 favorite for this matchup against Emerson Hancock and the Mariners. Washington rolled to an easy win in yesterday’s Trevor Williams vs. George Kirby matchup and they’ll hope for similar fortunes in this one.

Gore is following up last year’s strong performance with an even better one this season. He has a 3.47 ERA with a 3.51 xERA and a 2.81 FIP over 62.1 innings of work. This season, Gore has raised his K% from 24.8% to 36.2% and has also lowered his BB% from 8.9% to 8.2%. There are a lot of positive signs for him this season, including how he has pitched around a .366 BABIP, which he has earned by allowing a 48.6% Hard Hit% and an 11.3% Barrel%.

Well, T-Mobile Park is not a great venue for hitters, so I think that could help Gore with any middle-middle mistakes that he does make, especially as a fly ball guy. He also has a 10.7% IFFB%, so those are effectively strikeouts as well. With a Mariners lineup that has a 25.1% K% against lefties, I’m not sure how many run-scoring chances they will actually get.

On the flip side, Hancock has been very hittable this season. He has a 5.95 ERA with a 5.60 xERA and a 5.36 FIP over 39.1 innings of work. The right-hander has a 5.14 ERA and a 5.40 FIP over 23 MLB starts across 112 innings. His paltry 15.7% K% coupled with subpar command have led to a .323 BA against and a .352 BABIP against. Normally I’d look for some improvement there, but his xBA is .317 and his wOBA of .393 comes with a xwOBA of .377. So, he’s basically getting roughly the returns that he should get based on Statcast data.

While he does grade well with getting ground balls and limiting walks, his fastball velocity gains have been mitigated by his well below average Extension. He ranks in the 8th percentile in xERA, 3rd percentile in xBA, 5th percentile in Chase%, 19th percentile in Whiff%, and 11th percentile in K%.

The Nationals are a middle of the pack offense against righties with a .318 wOBA, but they do have a 102 wRC+. Also, with yesterday’s showing, they’ve cracked the top 10 in offensive performance over the last 14 days with a .331 wOBA. The Mariners only have a .315 wOBA.

Lastly, this is simple math for me. The Nationals strike out a lot less and are facing a pitcher that strikes out batters at a far lower clip. Washington should have more balls in play and that should create more run-scoring opportunities. Rather than lay the -130, I’ll go with the 1st 5 run line, as Hancock has allowed a .345/.397/.586 slash with a .426 wOBA the second time through the order and a .378/.415/.649 with a .451 wOBA the third time through. Meanwhile, Gore settles in the second time through, holding the opposition to a .277 wOBA.

Pick: Nationals 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (+110)