MLB Best Bets Today September 18
Key Highlights:
- Cubs vs. Reds Prediction
- Angels vs. Brewers Pick
A 10-game slate is on the docket for Thursday, as we have six matinee starts scheduled for between 1:10 p.m. ET and 3:10 p.m. ET. Getaway day games are always tricky at this time of the year, especially when you have one team in the mix and one team not, or when you have neither team in the mix. That’s true of the Marlins and Rockies, as well as the Athletics and Red Sox and the Mariners and Royals now that KC has fallen so far off the pace.
We’re down to a week and a half left in the MLB season, so keep an eye out for inflated favorites, as you’ll be paying a premium on teams in “must-win” situations.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 18:
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (-144, 8.5)
7:15 p.m. ET
I’m not sure that we’ll get a full-fledged hangover lineup from the Cubs, who spent the afternoon partying in Pittsburgh before a short up-and-down flight to Cincinnati. Chicago’s flight landed at CVG at 8:16 p.m. ET, about 2.5 hours later than expected, as the Cubs were able to celebrate making the playoffs for the first time since 2020. So, they got in at a reasonable time, but who knows if the party kept going into the night.
Nevertheless, we’ve already seen about a 20-cent line move on the Reds here with the expectation that the Cubs are a bit sluggish. We also have heavy juice on Hunter Greene’s Over 6.5 Strikeouts prop. So, I’ll go in a different, more equitable direction.
Greene Over 15.5 Outs Recorded is -116. If the Cubs are indeed hungover, we probably won’t see a lot of working the count or anything like that. Besides, Greene doesn’t walk a lot of guys anyway, coming in with nine walks in his last 33 innings since returning from injury. He has 43 strikeouts and those can run up a pitch count, but he’s gone Over 15.5 Outs in four of his six starts and all three of his home starts. He only got seven outs over 84 pitches in Sacramento last time out, but a lot of players have complained about the mound and the conditions out there.
I expect a bounce back effort from him as he looks to end the season strong and the Reds look to keep their playoff hopes alive, sitting two games behind the Mets.
Pick: Hunter Greene (CIN) Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-121)
Los Angeles Angels at Milwaukee Brewers (-199, 8)
7:40 p.m. ET
Yusei Kikuchi and Quinn Priester are the listed starters for tonight’s only interleague game, as the Angels and Brewers finish up their series. So far, the Brewers have won both games 9-2, running the Angels’ losing streak out to six games. It sure seems like they’re ready to pack it in for the season, as they’ve scored a total of 10 runs in the last five games.
I’m looking at Brewers 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 at -125 here. Kikuchi has a 7.30 ERA with a 5.14 xERA and a 5.09 FIP in his last five starts. Overall in the second half, he has allowed a .308/.367/.529 slash in 54.2 innings and has a 6.09 ERA. He’s given up nine homers and 20 doubles in that span, so teams are racking up the extra-base hits.
The Brewers have a 112 wRC+ against LHP over the last two weeks and just a 12.9% K% with a .284 BA. If Kikuchi can’t get swings and misses, he’s useless, as command has always been a problem for him. He’s almost always carried high Hard Hit% and Barrel% marks, but the strikeouts have been a saving grace. That isn’t the case right now.
To add another layer, Kikuchi has a 5.16 ERA in 83.2 innings on the road. He’s +30 in BA, +48 in OBP, and +75 in SLG compared to his home numbers. His BB% also spikes to 11.5% on the road.
Priester has not allowed more than two runs in each of his last five starts. In fact, if you go back to July 4, Priester has only allowed more than two runs once. He has a 2.79 ERA with a 3.87 FIP in the second half, as Milwaukee continues to play very well defensively and find ways to get the most out of their pitchers.
The Angels are 28th in wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days with a 71 wRC+. They have a 35.4% K% in that span. Priester isn’t a huge swing-and-miss guy, but pair the likelihood of increased strikeouts with his 57.2% GB% and you have the makings of what should be a really good start.
Pick: Brewers 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-125)
