MLB Best Bets Today September 25

The Thursday MLB slate is about as full as it can get. Usually Mondays and Thursdays are precious off days throughout the course of the season. Well, 24 teams had Monday off, so only six teams have Thursday off, as we have 12 games, including several with significant playoff considerations.

And those playoff considerations start early with Pirates vs. Reds in the first game of the day at 12:40 p.m. ET. The Astros have a big one against the A’s at 3:35 p.m. ET and so do the Dodgers against the Diamondbacks at 3:40 p.m. ET. The rest of the slate will be late, including big games in Cleveland, Toronto, and Chicago.

Just like we have throughout the week, we have to keep an eye on the players nearing “round” numbers and see if there’s any player prop value.

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for September 25:

MLB Player Props Today (0.25 units unless noted)

I’ll be looking at some different player props based on players looking for round numbers, career-highs, etc. as the week goes along. Some of these will be smaller risks with some potentially higher rewards. I think it is especially good to look at these where team success no longer matters as much as trying to hit these individual benchmarks, as players may get a little more selfish.

Too early to suggest this game, but Nick Lodolo needs six strikeouts for 150; it’s not 200, but it would be his first time to hit 150 in his career. Once again, though, the line here is 6.5 with a price both ways. Maybe a live betting angle, even though he has bigger team things to worry about. Much like last night with Sonny Gray, perhaps Over 15.5 Outs is the way to look.

Gunnar Henderson (BAL) Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+350)

Still haven’t seen an adjustment to this price, as opposing runners are 19-for-25 against Drew Rasmussen. That’s not as good of a situation as we had yesterday against Shane Baz, but the league CS% is 22% and Tampa Bay is at just 17%. Hunter Feduccia won’t catch a day game after a night game. It will be Nick Fortes, who has an 18.5% CS%. Probably worth a look on Henderson again today as he goes for his 30th steal.

Note: Yoshinobu Yamamoto needs six strikeouts for 200. His line is 6.5 and heavily juiced the Under. Arizona is not an easy matchup needing strikeouts, so I’m staying off, but might be a live betting angle there.

Players one or two away from big “numbers” in the HR department:

• Shohei Ohtani (53)
• Eugenio Suarez (48)
• Pete Alonso (37)
• Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Pete-Crow Armstrong, Francisco Lindor (29)
• Matt Olson, Willy Adames (28)
• Ramon Laureano, Mickey Moniak, Ben Rice (24)
• Christian Walker, Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis, Bobby Witt Jr. (23)
• Max Muncy, Ryan McMahon, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Gavin Sheets, Kody Clemens, Geraldo Perdomo, Yainer Diaz, Logan O’Hoppe, Anthony Volpe, Daulton Varsho, Colson Montgomery, Ivan Herrera, Michael Harris II, Drake Baldwin (19)
• Note: Cal Raleigh hit 59 and 60 last night; Aaron Judge hit 50 and 51. Kyle Schwarber hit 55 and 56 – maybe he wants a crack at 60! James Wood hit 29 and 30 last night. Tyler Soderstrom hit 25 last night – we were a day early! Jorge Polanco hit 25 last night

Players away from big “numbers” in the SB department:

• Jose Caballero (48)
• Oneil Cruz (38)
• Bobby Witt Jr. (37)
• Nico Hoerner, Gunnar Henderson (29)
• Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez (28)
• Zach McKinstry, Shohei Ohtani, Ceddanne Rafaela, Sal Frelick, Jordan Beck (19)
• Dansby Swanson, Josh Lowe, Dane Myers (now injured), Tyler Freeman, Anthony Volpe, Matt McLain (18)
• Note: We got a Gunnar Henderson steal yesterday for 29! Michael Harris II stole his 20th base last night and now needs a HR for a 20/20 season. Jackson Chourio stole his 19th last night and needs one more for a 20/20 season.

MLB Picks Today

Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees (-313, 8.5)

7:05 p.m. ET

The White Sox and Yankees battle one more time tonight before going their separate ways. New York stays home to face Baltimore. Chicago goes to D.C. The Yankees have already clinched a playoff spot, but now the division is hanging in the balance with a tie atop the AL East standings. New York does need to win it outright because Toronto holds the tiebreaker. It’s a huge difference between playing in the Wild Card Round as opposed to having a bye.

So, a few things here tonight and these are hardly thought-provoking handicaps. Carlos Rodon gets the ball for the Yankees. First of all, he needs two strikeouts to get to 200, so I imagine he’ll be looking to start fast. DraftKings does offer a 1st 3 Innings Team Total prop on the White Sox Under 0.5 at -105. I do like that, but I couldn’t find it on Fanduel, so that seems a little unfair to readers.

But, what we can do is play White Sox 1st 5 Team Total Under 1.5 at -125. Over the last 14 days, Chicago has the 29th-ranked wOBA against LHP at .226 with a 42 wRC+ and a 25.9% K%. This should be a good final tune-up for Rodon, whose next start will come in the playoffs.

Chicago is sending out Davis Martin, a right-hander who doesn’t miss many bats and has a 4.03 ERA, but with a 5.30 xERA and a 4.72 FIP. He’s given up eight homers in his last 47 innings and has more MLB innings pitched this season than he had coming into this season. He might be wearing down a bit.

To lessen the vig, I’ll take my shot on Yankees 1st 5 Alt Run Line -1.5 at -105. The half-run run line for the 1st 5 is -175. That’s a bit chalky. Rodon should be uber-focused in a huge start with a lot on the line and the Yankees are third in wOBA and first in xwOBA over the last 30 days.

Picks: White Sox 1st 5 Team Total Under 1.5 Runs (-125); Yankees 1st 5 Alt Run Line -1.5 (-105)