MLB Best Bets Today September 4
Key Highlights:
- Only six MLB games today
- Dodgers vs. Pirates Prediction
The Thursday MLB slate is a small one with just six games on the board. The first game doesn’t start until 4:10 p.m. ET, which seems like a misstep from MLB given that all eyes will be on Cowboys vs. Eagles tonight on Thursday Night Football to kick off the NFL season. Nevertheless, I’m happy for the small card with a lot of other football-related stuff going on.
Three of the games – Pittsburgh, Tampa, Minneapolis – do have rain risks, so keep an eye on that and be aware for pitcher player props.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 4:
Dodgers vs. Pirates Prediction (+101, 7)
6:40 p.m. ET
Blake Snell and Paul Skenes are the listed hurlers for this one, as the Dodgers look to avoid what would be a pretty shocking sweep at the hands of the Pirates. The road trip is not off to a good start with 9-7 and 3-0 losses for the NL West leaders. But, I think they do salvage the game today.
Snell has a 2.54 ERA with a 3.17 FIP over 28.1 innings of work with a 34/10 K/BB ratio since returning from the IL. The Pirates are a pretty patient lineup, at least of late against lefties, so Snell will need to attack the zone, but he does induce a lot of weak contact and should enjoy the opportunity to work in a pitcher’s park. He went seven innings with two runs allowed in San Diego two starts ago while working in a good environment for arms.
Skenes has obviously been terrific. I can’t poke many holes in him here, as he has a 2.05 ERA with a 2.59 xERA and a 2.47 FIP in his 167 innings of work. He hasn’t been quite as sharp in the second half thus far with bumps of 44 points in BA, 18 points in OBP, and 81 points in SLG. His ceiling remains high, though this is a very talented lineup to face.
I just feel like the better offense with a more rested bullpen in a game where the starters probably cancel out or close to it is the way to go. The Pirates have used their primary relievers back-to-back days with two save opportunities in close games in this series. The Dodgers probably focus more here with Skenes and to avoid a sweep. It’s a small card and options are very limited.
Pick: Dodgers -123
