MLB Best Bets Today April 1:
Tuesday features the most imbalanced schedule distribution I have ever seen for a MLB card, as we have two games in the NL, two games in the AL, and nine games of interleague action. The Red Sox and Orioles are off today after building in a day for bad weather following yesterday’s home opener in Baltimore. The Rockies and Phillies are the other two teams taking a pause on Tuesday.
We have an interesting mix today of guys making their second starts of the season and guys making their season debuts. They’ve likely tried to stay as sharp as possible, but with the end of Spring Training and the start of the season, a lot of those guys making their first starts probably haven’t thrown in real game conditions in over a week. Keep that in mind as you dig into the matchups.
Top MLB Resources:
It would be wise to check out my stats glossary, as you’ll see a lot of those terms and the application of them in my handicapping. Also, check out my 30 MLB Team Previews and my list of roster updates since the previews are about a month or so old.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year, I intend to work in more props, derivatives, and maybe even some parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and attack some different markets. What worked for me in the past has not worked as well the last two years, so I’m looking to make some changes and that includes my bet distribution by type and market.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 1:
Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays (-162, 8.5)
7:07 p.m. ET
A lot of interested parties will be watching this game to see if Jose Berrios is able to bounce back from a disastrous Opening Day start against the Orioles. Me? I have interest in a different area.
Trevor Williams makes his first start for the Nationals this season after his 2024 season was cut short due to injury. Williams revamped his arsenal and relied much heavier on a slider to get outs, as he had a 2.03 ERA with a 3.17 xERA and a 2.79 FIP over 66.2 innings before suffering an injury that ended his season after 13 starts. He had 2.0 fWAR, which was the most he’s had since 2018.
We’ll see if he can sustain that, as he had a very solid Spring Training with 18.1 innings worth of work, leading to a 3.93 ERA with a 2.86 FIP. The biggest thing for Williams last season was that his adjusted arsenal cut his home run rate down dramatically. He only allowed one homer and that came in his first start of the Spring.
However, I’m locked in on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit a home run at +500. Vladdy hit 12 of his 30 homers off of a right-handed slider/slurve/sweeper. On the whole last season, Guerrero had a .328 BA with a .679 SLG in plate appearance outcomes that ended on a right-handed slider/sweeper/slurve. Williams is a guy that had problems with righties previously before going all-in on the slider-heavy approach. Hopefully he’ll leave a flat one in the middle of the plate, as Vladito hit 24 of his 30 HR against righties last season with a .327/.391/.545 slash and a 164 wRC+.
Guerrero was second to Gunnar Henderson last season in Slider Pitch Value/100 and fourth in Slider Pitch Value overall, so if that’s how Williams wants to attack him, it may not work out in his favor.
This will be a half-unit bet and DraftKings has it listed as “1+ Home Runs” as opposed to a Yes/No prop like other sportsbooks.
Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 1+ Home Runs (+500 – half-unit wager)
Minnesota Twins (-162, 7.5) at Chicago White Sox
7:40 p.m. ET
The Twins are off to a winless start and the vibes are not good in the Twin Cities. Ownership is looking at a sale and there was a lot of talk leading up to the season about shedding some payroll. I’m not sure if that has any bearing on the start to the season for Minnesota or not, but it’s been ugly thus far in a lot of ways.
That includes last night’s loss to the White Sox in blowout fashion. We’ll see how engaged the Twins look today, as temps in the 40s on a damp, gross night on the South Side will not make it fun for anybody involved, especially the hitters.
It hasn’t been fun for the Twins hitters in general, as they’re batting .143/.206/.230 thus far with a 23.5% K% and one of the lowest walk rates in the league. The White Sox have gotten some outstanding starting pitching thus far from a cast of no-names. In fact, in four starts, the White Sox have allowed exactly earned runs as a starting staff. And arguably their most intriguing pitcher gets the ball today.
That is Shane Smith, a Rule 5 pick from the Brewers. Smith probably won’t reach max velo today with the cold weather, but he nearly touched 100 in Spring Training and has deepened his arsenal all the way around, throwing what appears to be a “kick-change”, which is a variation of a sinker that a lot of pitchers seem to be adding these days. He also has a good cutter and curveball. Smith had 113 strikeouts in 94.1 innings last season in the minors for the Brewers pitching as both a starter and a reliever.
I think he has the chance to rack up some Whiffs in this outing with a good stuff profile that the Twins haven’t really seen.
Pick: Shane Smith (CWS) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)
San Francisco Giants (-122, 8) at Houston Astros
8:10 p.m. ET
One of the buzzworthy players this Spring has been Hayden Wesneski. He’ll make his first start as a member of the Astros against another slider artist in Logan Webb, as the Giants lay a road price at Minute Maid Park.
Webb struggled in his first start in Cincinnati, as he allowed three runs on six hits over five innings with five strikeouts and three walks. It was a bit of an uncharacteristic outing for Webb with the walks and just a 50% GB%. He also allowed an average exit velo of 91.8 mph and two Barrels. He allowed 2+ Barrels in just 11 of his 33 starts last season. Webb can and will allow a lot of hard contact on the ground, but he was elevating the ball a little bit in that outing.
Webb allowed seven fly balls/line drives with seven ground balls. He’s a guy with some notable home/road splits, which is going to happen with such an extreme pitcher’s park in San Francisco. He has a career 2.78 ERA with a .275 wOBA against in 431.1 innings at home and a 4.09 ERA in 429 innings with a .305 wOBA against. Webb’s BB% on the road is over a percent higher and his K% is nearly 2% lower.
He’s also a guy that has struggled a bit early in the season, posting a 4.13 ERA with a .361 wOBA against in 2021 and a 4.10 ERA with a .320 wOBA against in 2023. Maybe now is the time to get him if you’re an opposing offense.
Wesneski had control issues in Spring Training, but the most notable development to me is that he only allowed one home run. He gave up 12 HR in 67.2 MLB innings last season and 20 in 89.1 innings in 2023. While he didn’t miss a lot of bats in the Spring, he did show a nice improvement in his Pull% against, as he’s leveraging his arsenal better to induce weaker contact to other areas on the field. He’s also had problems throwing first-pitch strikes in every Spring Training, but has no regular season issues with it.
The Giants were a borderline bottom-10 offense against sliders last season. They’ve got one of the 10 highest Chase Rates so far this season. It’s early, but their Swing% is up from 27th at
46.6% last season to fifth at 48.8% this season, so you can see that they’re being more aggressive in the box, a change that I expected with Farhan Zaidi fired.
Houston’s bullpen is in better shape than San Francisco’s in terms of the top leverage relievers. I think they’re worthy of a look as a small underdog at home today.
Pick: Astros +102
Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners (-175, 7)
9:40 p.m. ET
We have a spectacular pitching matchup in Seattle tonight with Casey Mize and Logan Gilbert. Mize was one of the standout stars of Spring Training, as he struck out 25 in just 19 innings and only allowed four runs on 11 hits. Mize changed his arm angle a little bit and it has generated more movement on his fastball. He’s also throwing his splitter harder. The Tigers are having a ton of success with their starting pitchers right now and Mize, who spent some time this offseason at Driveline Baseball, looks like the next one.
However, the sheer quality of his stuff does have hitters holding back a little bit. He had a 10.7% BB% in Spring Training and I think his revamped arsenal is going to keep him from pitching to contact like he has the past couple of seasons.
For all of the issues that the Mariners have had offensively early in the season, they are still drawing walks. Thus far, 40.9% of their plate appearances have ended in a strikeout or a walk. It isn’t surprising to see Mize’s Outs Recorded prop heavily juiced to the Under 15.5 at -190, as Seattle has the chance to run up his pitch count.
Seattle’s BB% ranks third at 12.5% this season. Despite a .188 batting average, they still have a .303 OBP. I’ll take a shot at Mize walking at least two batters here. Sometimes it can be hard to control such a dynamic arsenal like his and he’s also made a ton of adjustments coming into the season. In his first start that really matters, I could see a little bit of inconsistency with his control and command.
Pick: Casey Mize (DET) Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-110)
