MLB Best Bets Today April 22:

All 30 teams hope to take the field on Tuesday, as we have five AL games, five NL games, and five interleague games on the docket for April 22. As mentioned in today’s VSiN Daily Newsletter, the Rays are playing on the road for just the second time this season as they start an interleague series with the Diamondbacks. Other than that, there aren’t a whole lot of quirks to the schedule, but there are some really interesting matchups.

Not only that, but we have a lot of closely-lined games. At the time I started writing and researching for today, there were only three favorites of -200 or higher at DraftKings. So, hopefully we get treated to some drama.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year, I intend to work in more props, derivatives, and maybe even some parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and attack some different markets. What worked for me in the past has not worked as well the last two years, so I’m looking to make some changes and that includes my bet distribution by type and market.

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for April 22:

New York Yankees (-115, 8.5) at Cleveland Guardians

6:10 p.m. ET

The 2024 ALCS rematch continues with Game 2 in Cleveland, as the Guardians drew first blood with a 6-4 win on Monday. It got dicey, as the Guardians led 6-0 and an overworked bullpen had to find a way to get nine outs. Gavin Williams was fantastic and now Tanner Bibee will attempt to follow his lead.

A lot was made on the Guardians broadcast about how big this start is for Bibee, given that his final start of 2024 was against the Yanks and he battled really hard through 5.2 innings in the Game 5 loss. Bibee’s second start in the series was quite a bit better than his first, where he only lasted 39 pitches and 11 batters. He’s a guy that really ramps up his competitiveness and you can see it in his body language and emotions.

While I appreciate his nature, any extra-added pressure seems concerning here. Bibee has a 5.85 ERA with a 7.89 FIP. He’s only struck out 15 batters in 20 innings against 11 walks and has allowed 13 runs on 19 hits. He’s given up seven homers, which have been clustered in two of his four starts. He isn’t getting swings and misses outside the zone and the sinker that he has increased the usage of in hopes of cutting down the home runs has been somewhat helpful, but his cutter has been pummeled and so has his changeup.

Those are his two primary weapons against lefties and the Yankees are not as right-handed-heavy as they used to be. In fact, if Ben Rice can start tonight, they’ll be able to throw six lefties at Bibee, with the righties as Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, and Anthony Volpe. It is early, but lefties have a .750 SLG in 36 PA against Bibee this season and posted a .263/.320/.460 slash with a .336 wOBA last season.

I won’t go so far as to say that Bibee is hurt, but I do think that the innings increase could be playing a role this season. He had 173.2 MLB innings as the ace of the staff after Shane Bieber went down and added 15.2 more in the playoffs. His spin rates are down significantly on his four-seam fastball and cutter, which account for nearly 60% of his pitch usage. Right now, Bibee ranks in the 13th percentile in Chase Rate, 28th percentile in fastball spin (after being in 77th percentile last year), 22nd percentile in BB%, 25th percentile in K%, 9th percentile in Barrel%, 17th percentile in xSLG, and 20th percentile in xERA. He’s pitched as bad as his numbers would suggest.

I guess he could turn it around here and he’s had good success at home, but with the Yankees in search of a bounce back performance and Bibee’s numerous areas of concern, I could see a tough outing for him.

Pick: Yankees 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+124)

San Diego Padres at Detroit Tigers (-122, 7.5)

6:40 p.m. ET

I really felt like Nick Pivetta getting away from Fenway Park and getting out of the AL East would be helpful for him. That is an understatement. The 32-year-old right-hander has a 1.57 ERA with a 2.63 xERA and a 2.17 FIP in his first 23 innings as a member of the Padres. Pivetta’s K/BB numbers are excellent and he’s also made some serious strides in terms of Hard Hit% and Barrel% on the young year.

Pivetta’s 35.1% HH% would be his best since 2018 and his 7.0% Barrel% is the best he’s had since his rookie year. His pitch mix has been more effective, especially with a much lower number of Chases outside the zone, but a much higher number of Whiffs in the zone. His 12.2% SwStr% would be a career-best and so would his 81% Z-Contact%, a stat that is a good indicator of stuff quality.

The Tigers have done a solid job of drawing walks this season, so Pivetta is the right kind of guy to combat that skill. Detroit still doesn’t make a ton of quality contact, ranking 23rd in Barrel% and 27th in Hard Hit%, two metrics that have been fairly problematic for Pivetta in the past.

Jack Flaherty enters this game with a 2.53 ERA, 4.30 xERA, 3.32 FIP, and a 3.59 xFIP over his four starts and 21.1 innings. He came back to the Tigers in free agency and has gotten off to a nice start, but the Padres have the lowest K% in baseball against RHP and lowest overall by a good margin. They’re simply a better offensive team. Where some of Pivetta’s weaknesses shouldn’t be exploited by the Tigers, I think some of Flaherty’s could, as his velo is down a bit early this season and his Hard Hit% and Barrel% are both up a bit.

I also like this situation better for San Diego than I did yesterday. They got to Detroit well after 3 a.m. and landed at DTW, which is a half hour from downtown, so they probably got settled in around 5 a.m. for a quick power nap. They were able to get a good night’s sleep last night and should come back more energized with a set of rested high-leverage relievers.

Pick: Padres +102

Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox (-130, 9)

6:45 p.m. ET

The Mariners embarked on a three-city, nine-game road trip last week and they’re now in that third city to take on the Red Sox. After an off day for the Mariners yesterday, this series gets underway at Fenway Park with Bryce Miller for Seattle and the return of Brayan Bello for Boston.

Miller admitted a couple of starts ago that he was dealing with a little bit more soreness than usual after last season’s big innings increase, which is probably why manager Dan Wilson kept him to 78 pitches last time out after throwing 101 pitches five days prior. I’d expect we see the leash a little bit longer for Miller here, as he’s coming off of his best start of the season with eight strikeouts over five shutout innings.

Miller’s walk rate is a tad elevated, but he’s a guy that had BB% marks of 6.4% and 4.8% in his first two seasons, so I don’t see that trend continuing. To this point, Miller has only allowed one Barrel, which is a phenomenal stat for a fly ball guy like him. He’s cut down his Hard Hit% as well, as he’s worked in the sinker and curveball more this season to keep hitters off-balance with more variation in his pitch speeds. I think there’s actually room for improvement with his Zone% down a bit and his Called Strike and Swinging Strike percentages down a little. Miller is also on an extra day of rest here.

Bello is a wild card given that he’s just coming back from a shoulder injury and a minor league rehab stint. He made four starts over 14 innings and allowed 12 runs on 18 hits. He did have 21 strikeouts against just four walks and his velocity was good, so that’s what the Red Sox were mostly looking for. He allowed a .459 BABIP in those four starts, topping out at 71 pitches.

Boston’s bullpen has had some issues in middle relief lately and Bello is unlikely to work super deep into the game. I’m also worried about his location, as he still allowed a Hard Hit% over 40% in those four starts, continuing a two-year MLB trend. He also allowed a lot of pull-side contact in those rehab efforts.

Seattle is playing really well right now and swinging the bats extremely well. They rank sixth in wOBA over the last 14 days and have carried over their offensive trends from the final month of last season. Boston’s offense has been scuffling a bit, coming in 22nd over the last 14 days in wOBA, as one of 11 teams with a sub-.300 wOBA in that span.

The Mariners bullpen leads MLB in GB% and that’s not a bad thing heading to Fenway Park. They’re also top-10 in ERA and have a FIP under 4, despite a really poor K/BB ratio for a relief corps.

Pick: Mariners +110

Colorado Rockies at Kansas City Royals (-225, 8)

7:40 p.m. ET

Kris Bubic is having his Cole Ragans moment. The Royals offense continues to leave a lot to be desired, but Bubic looks like a breakout candidate here in 2025. Through four starts, the southpaw has a 27/9 K/BB ratio over 24 innings with a 1.88 ERA, 2.71 FIP, and a 3.43 xFIP. Here he draws the second-worst lineup in baseball by K% against lefties and the market has very much caught on with his K prop at 7.5.

Bubic has had four tough assignments thus far, facing the Brewers, Orioles, Guardians, and Yankees, a run of four straight playoff teams to begin the campaign. Now he gets one of the worst offenses in baseball. He’s got a solid Hard Hit% at 36.9% and has allowed six Barrels, which is a tad concerning, but the Rockies are 25th in Barrel% thus. The other teams he’s faced are 30th (shocked to see this about Milwaukee!), 2nd, 15th, and 1st.

I pored over the Bubic props for tonight and settled on him to Record A Win at +110. The Royals are heavily favored and he has an outstanding matchup. There aren’t any major fatigue concerns with the KC bullpen and they’ve performed pretty well, especially in terms of GB%. Bullpens that give up a lot of homers are the scariest for me. KC doesn’t have that issue and Bubic should be able to work deep into this one, mitigating any exposure for lesser relievers if it is a close game.

Pick: Kris Bubic (KC) To Record A Win (+110)

Texas Rangers at Athletics (-130, 10.5)

10:05 p.m. ET

The impressive run on Overs in Sacramento to start the season coupled with this pitching matchup has sent this total on an upward trajectory. Patrick Corbin gets the call for the Rangers and people can’t line up to fade him fast enough, as a simple X search shows everybody and their brother, sister, mother, cousin, and ex-significant other on the A’s Team Total Over, 1st 5 Over, and a litany of other ways to fade the punching bag southpaw.

I actually contemplated the Rangers at plus money for the game here, as I want to go against Osvaldo Bido, but backing Corbin seems like an excruciating way to spend an evening. Instead, I’ll fade Bido by looking at another 1st 5 Team Total Over and it is the Rangers at 2.5 and -105.

Bido is making his second start at Sutter Health Park. He’s an extremely extreme fly ball guy with a 26.9% GB% over his first four starts. He’s only allowed one home run and it came against the White Sox last time out, but his road starts have been in Chicago, Denver, and Seattle, so one really good pitcher’s park, a cold-weather start in Denver (high of 39 degrees), and then against one of the worst teams in baseball.

The Rangers aren’t exactly lighting it up offensively, but Bido has a 2.61 ERA with a 3.62 FIP and a 5.37 xFIP. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats and his 81.7% LOB% is likely unsustainable. He’s allowed a .372/.426/.558 slash with the bases empty, but just a .194/.279/.222 slash with men on base. He’s had almost as many plate appearances with the bases empty (47) as he’s had with men on base (43), but the results have been very different.

I figure a return to Sacramento on a fairly warm night with these regression signs should help the Rangers.

Pick: Rangers 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-105)