MLB Best Bets Today April 29:
The Brewers and White Sox play interleague action tonight and all of the other games feature more traditional matchups, as we have seven games in the NL and seven games in the AL. Every game is a late one tonight, so there’s no rush to get to the MLB card for Tuesday, unless you’re trying to get ahead of a line move or something like that.
The Twins and Guardians start the evening off at 6:10 p.m. ET and it will be a busy night on the diamond for those who aren’t as interested in the NBA or NHL Playoffs.
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This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year, I intend to work in more props, derivatives, and maybe even some parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and attack some different markets. What worked for me in the past has not worked as well the last two years, so I’m looking to make some changes and that includes my bet distribution by type and market.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 29:
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians (-135, 8.5)
6:10 p.m. ET
Chris Paddack and Tanner Bibee both have some rough numbers to start the season and they’ll hope for better fortunes in Game 2 of this weekday series. Bibee, who got an extension from the thrifty Guardians prior to the season, has a 5.19 ERA with a 4.73 xERA and a 7.26 FIP over 26 innings. He’s allowed eight home runs and has 14 walks against just 20 strikeouts. He only walked 44 guys over 173.2 innings last season with 187 strikeouts.
Bibee isn’t getting guys to expand the zone. His Chase% ranks in the Bottom 8%, so he’s given himself very little margin for error. As a result, he’s in the 13th percentile in Barrel% and 30th percentile in xERA. His 40.8% Hard Hit% would be a career high and he has thrown a lot of uncompetitive fastballs. His spin rates are down across the board from last season’s numbers and his cutter has been totally ineffective.
Paddack still has a nine-run performance hanging around his neck, as he allowed a nine spot to the White Sox back on March 31. Since then, he’s allowed seven earned runs over his last four starts and just four earned over his last 15 innings. Paddack did walk four White Sox last time out, but he had only walked five in his previous three outings. He has a 6.45 ERA, but a 4.22 xERA to go with a 5.93 FIP. He gave up three homers in that first start, but has cut them back since.
Paddack has done a better job generating chases than Bibee and he still has a good changeup, which is a pitch that Guardians hitters had all kinds of problems with against Bailey Ober yesterday.
Both bullpens are in good shape, as the Guardians used a position player to pitch for the second straight day. This price is just too steep in my opinion. The Guardians are doing very little offensively right now and it’s not like Bibee has been better than Paddack.
Pick: Twins +114
New York Yankees (-148, 9.5) at Baltimore Orioles
6:40 p.m. ET
Will Warren only lasted 3.1 innings yesterday, and yet he was still able to get Over 4.5 Strikeouts for us. Now it’s Carlos Rodon’s turn to face the Orioles, who struck out nine more times yesterday, including three against southpaw reliever Ryan Yarbrough over 3.2 innings of work.
Rodon has a 31.5% K% this season, as he’s been pounding the zone with the highest CStr% of his career. His SwStr% is actually the lowest he has had in a full, non-COVID season since 2018, but he’s filling up the zone at such a high rate combined with a low Swing% that he’s been able to keep racking up punchies. His line here is 6.5 and he’s gone over that in five of his six starts thus far. The only time he didn’t was against Arizona, who has the second-lowest K% in the league.
The Orioles have been putrid against lefties so far. They have 315 plate appearances with a .177/.257/.234 slash, a .231 wOBA, and a 48 wRC+, meaning that they are 52% below league average in that split. They have a 27.3% K% with a 7.9% BB%. Rodon has struck out 33 batters over his last four starts and that even includes a couple of outings where he had some command issues, giving up four to the Giants over 5.2 innings and six to the Tigers over six innings.
In other words, he could have a Warren-esque line in terms of runs, but still be able to get the swings and misses and strikeouts. He’s also thrown over 100 pitches three times, so Aaron Boone trusts him for some length and to turn lineups over. He’s in the 82nd percentile in Whiff% and 89th percentile in K% and has a good matchup here against a swing-and-miss lineup that sure seems to be pressing. At even money, it’s worth a look, even with the high number.
Pick: Carlos Rodon (NYY) Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Boston Red Sox (-135, 7.5) at Toronto Blue Jays
7:07 p.m. ET
Another AL East battle caught my eye today between the Red Sox and Blue Jays. It will be Garrett Crochet for Boston and Bowden Francis for Toronto. I tweeted about this earlier today, but former MLB pitcher Trevor May did a fascinating video about pitcher arm angle changes and studies about how adjusting arm angle can help take torque off the elbow and shoulder in hopes of decreasing injury.
Crochet has one of the most extreme arm angle changes thus far, something that most teams have not yet seen, but the Blue Jays have. In the one game against Crochet, they had four runs on five hits and drew four walks. They also only struck out five times, the second-lowest count for Crochet this season. While three of the runs were unearned, it was Crochet’s worst start of the season by Game Score. Two of Crochet’s three best starts have come against the lowly White Sox.
Toronto is third in MLB in wOBA against lefties at .359 and also third in wRC+ at 139, so they’ve fared really well in this split. They haven’t hit righties at all, which is why their start to the season fizzled quickly, but they’ve hit lefties and have made a ton of contact against them, while also posting a 12% BB%.
Admittedly, I don’t know if the arm angle change and those adjustments are to blame, but Crochet’s BB% is up from 5.5% to 10.1% and his K% is down from 35.1% to 29.7%. Still an elite K%, but the BB% is a big spike and maybe his control has been a bit of an issue as he keeps working through the adjustment in hopes of staying healthier and logging more innings. I get that it’s still pretty early, but Stuff+ has downgraded his fastball, sinker, cutter, and changeup this season compared to last season.
Weather may be a bit of a factor, but Crochet’s velo is down across the board this season, especially with the four-seamer and sinker. Again, something to watch as we move forward. His spin rates are still mostly in line with last season, but I feel as though the Blue Jays and their good results against southpaws give them the chance to score a little in this one.
Bowden Francis is a fade guy for me. He enters this start with a 3.58 ERA, but a 6.29 xERA and a 5.49 FIP in his 27.2 innings of work. His K% is down, his BB% is up, and he’s given up six homers in his five starts. He’s allowing a 46.3% Hard Hit% and a 12.5% Barrel%, so he’s simply not locating or commanding the baseball nearly as well as he did last season. Lefties have pummeled him over 64 PA to the tune of a .545 SLG and a .363 wOBA.
I like Boston at the -135 price, since Crochet still has more upside than Francis in a big way and I want to go against Francis. But, I also think that Toronto can help the cause a little bit here in terms of scoring runs. I was torn between Over 7.5 (-115) for the full game and Over 4.5 (+110) for the 1st 5, but ultimately opted for the 1st 5 because Boston can throw a lot of right-handed relievers at Toronto and the Jays are last in wOBA at .277 in that split. Also, Toronto’s bullpen has the highest K% in baseball.
Picks: Red Sox -135; 1st 5 Over 4.5 Runs (+110)
San Francisco Giants (-125, 6.5) at San Diego Padres
9:40 p.m. ET
If you couldn’t tell by the total, we have quite the pitching matchup at Petco Park between Logan Webb and Nick Pivetta. I cannot express how much I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Pivetta. He was a guy I focused on in my Padres preview and he’s been a vital part of the team thus far, as San Diego badly needed starting pitching due to injuries and Pivetta has been everything and more for the rotation.
Webb’s pretty damn good, too, so San Diego has a tall task here. Webb has a 1.98 ERA with a 2.94 xERA and a 1.83 FIP over his first 36.1 innings of work. His K% is up, his HR rate, which was already elite, is down, and he continues to have batted balls beaten into the ground. That being said, Webb has had a pretty friendly slate of opponents so far from a strikeout standpoint. His SwStr% should regress as we go forward and the Padres are the right type of team for that, as they have the lowest K% in baseball against RHP. Webb then becomes subject to more batted ball variance with all the grounders.
Pivetta’s got 30 strikeouts against seven walks in his 30 innings of work. He’s allowed just one run on eight hits in his three home starts at Petco with a 20/2 K/BB ratio. Talk about a guy who was thrilled to get out of Fenway and get away from the AL East. San Francisco’s 11.3% BB% against RHP is doing a lot of heavy lifting, as they rank 22nd in BA and 19th in SLG in that split. Pivetta is pretty stingy with free passes, so I don’t think they’ll have that to fall back on.
Both teams had Monday off, so both bullpens are in good shape. The Padres pen leads MLB in ERA and FIP. The Giants are second in ERA and sixth in FIP. Two really good relief units, two good starters, but I give the edge to the Padres lineup and they’re a home underdog with a guy in Pivetta that I want to back in this setting.
Pick: Padres +105
