MLB Best Bets Today August 19

Key Highlights:

• 16 games on the MLB schedule today
• Mets vs. Nationals: Offense coming?
• Yankees vs. Rays: Bounce back spot for Carlos Rodon?

Sixteen games are on the MLB docket for Tuesday, as the Brewers and Cubs will try again to play two. Last night’s nightcap got rained out after the Brewers got back to their winning ways with a 7-0 win in Game 1 to extend their lead in the division to nine games. At this point, the two Central Division races are the only ones that are pretty much decided.

Other than those two scheduled games at Wrigley Field, we’ve got a full slate of action that will conclude under the lights, as every game starts at 6:40 p.m. ET or later. That includes a banger of a pitching matchup in Motown with Hunter Brown and Tarik Skubal as the Astros do battle with the Tigers.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for August 19:

New York Mets (-206, 9) at Washington Nationals

6:45 p.m. ET

NL East rivals duel in D.C., as the Mets and Nationals go head-to-head. It will be David Peterson for the Mets and Jake Irvin for the Nationals. Both guys are scuffling of late, as Irvin has a 7.88 ERA with a 6.16 FIP over his last five starts, while Peterson has a 4.28 ERA with a 3.85 FIP, but I have some very significant concerns about Peterson.

We’ll start with this – Peterson has walked 12 batters over his last four starts. He’s allowed 12 runs on 14 hits in his last three starts over 15.1 innings of work. In his last four starts, his fastball + sinker usage is over 55%. His slider usage is down to 15.1% and he’s around 15% with the curveball and changeup as well. He’s allowed a 102.1 mph average exit velo on the fastball this month in starts against the Giants, Guardians, and Braves.

Peterson has also seen a noticeable drop in his vertical release point and in his average arm angle. It’s entirely possible that these are suggested changes, but I wonder if he’s pitching through something, given that those coincide with some significant changes to his pitch usage. The Nationals are 26th in wOBA against LHP over the last 14 days, but the Giants are 28th and the Guardians are 27th, so Peterson hasn’t taken full advantage of some favorable matchups. The Braves are exactly league average with a 100 wRC+ and rank 15th in wOBA and Peterson just gave up six runs on five hits.

What saves Peterson is that he’s an extreme ground ball guy and he’s still kept that up with the mechanical changes, but he’s also created his own problems with the high walk rate.

Irvin is just not a very good pitcher and he draws a Mets lineup that is second in wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days. If we go back over his last nine starts, Irvin has allowed 4+ runs in six of them and has just a 28/21 K/BB ratio with 11 HR allowed in that span. He has allowed a 48.7% Hard Hit% and a 9.5% Barrel% in those outings.

The stripped-down Nationals bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball this month with a 6.79 ERA and a 5.55 FIP. The Mets have been a below average relief unit despite their Trade Deadline additions.

Pick: Mets/Nationals Over 9 (-111)

Chicago White Sox at Atlanta Braves (-165, 8.5)

7:15 p.m. ET

Shane Smith makes his fourth start since returning from the IL as the White Sox look to ride the momentum of yesterday’s 13-9 win over the Braves. The Braves will counter with Bryce Elder as they look to get back to their winning ways.

Smith has made some really interesting usage changes since coming back from a sprained ankle. I’m assuming he took the time to chat with the coaches and work on optimizing his arsenal, as he’s been leveraging his curveball a lot more. He’s been a little more selective with his fastball usage, opting for a few more sinkers, which I don’t really love. Nevertheless, the curveball is a big weapon for him with a 43.8% Whiff%. Paired with an above average changeup with a 32.7% Whiff% and a stellar four-seam fastball with a 25.5% Whiff% and terrific batted ball results, I think Smith using the curveball more is a huge deal.

My guess is that the sinker change is to help with having one of the higher Pull Air% among starters, but I like the pitch mix expectation that I have for this one, as he really uses the curve and change heavily against lefties and then attacks righties with the slider/sinker combo.

Elder has a 5.89 ERA with a 5.09 FIP for the season and has been worse than that recently, largely due to an eight-run outburst by the Rangers back on July 27. Elder only has 87 strikeouts against 41 walks for the season and it’s even worse lately with an 18/13 K/BB ratio over his last 27.1 innings of work.

The White Sox may be without Colson Montgomery, who left yesterday’s game with some side soreness, but it seems like that has been an ongoing issue because he has been awful at the plate for the last week and a half. The Braves have gotten some outstanding relief pitching over the last several weeks, so I’m not messing with the full game. But, I do like White Sox +0.5 at -115 here, as Smith is likely a five-and-fly guy again today.

Pick: White Sox 1st 5 Run Line +0.5 (-115)

New York Yankees (-127, 8) at Tampa Bay Rays

7:35 p.m. ET

It will likely be a pro-Yankees crowd in a very familiar setting, as the Landlords face the Renters in this one. The Rays are paying for the use of Steinbrenner Field after Tropicana Field suffered hurricane damage. So, the Yankees are in St. Pete in some comfortable digs as they play a quick two-game series against the Rays.

It was a happy flight from STL to TPA for the Yankees after sweeping the Cardinals. It was a much longer flight back for the Rays after wrapping up a three-city, nine-game West Coast swing. They went 4-5 on that trip and now sit 6.5 games out of a playoff spot.

Carlos Rodon gets the call here for the Yankees, as he looks to take advantage of what should be a favorable matchup. The Rays are 20th in wOBA over the last 14 days and have a 27.5% K% against a 4.2% BB% in that span. On the whole, this is a team that ranks 25th in wOBA for the season and has a 24.3% K% against just a 7.2% BB% versus southpaws.

Rodon hasn’t been terribly sharp lately with a 4.00 ERA and a 4.90 FIP in his last five starts, but walks have been the big issue and the Rays don’t walk much, so this feels like a good bounce back spot.

Shane Baz has an 8.28 ERA for the Rays in his last five starts. He has a 3.88 FIP, so there are some positive regression signs with a 50.8% LOB% and a .400 BABIP against, but he has not enjoyed his home ballpark at all this season. He has a 6.54 ERA with a .274/.342/.484 slash and a .356 wOBA against at home in 63.1 innings of work. The Yankees are swinging it well over the last week and it seems like Aaron Judge may be getting a tad more comfortable in the box.

The Yankees have the deeper bullpen in a game where both bullpens had yesterday off. I think this price is short on Rodon and the visitors.

Pick: Yankees -127