MLB Best Bets Today August 26
Key Highlights:
- Braves vs. Marlins: Pitcher’s duel incoming?
- Twins vs. Blue Jays Prediction
- Pirates vs. Cardinals, Angels vs. Rangers
Everybody takes the field on Tuesday, as we have next to no weather worries for a 15-game slate. Every game is late as well, as the return of Kyle Bradish kicks off the card with Red Sox vs. Orioles at 6:35 p.m. ET. Today is a rarity in that the only overwhelmingly large line we have is between the Rockies and Astros, where Hunter Brown is likely to mow down visiting Colorado.
Other than that, we have a lot of closely-lined, competitive games. At least on the surface. We’ll see if it actually plays out that way.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 26:
Atlanta Braves (-132, 8) at Miami Marlins
6:40 p.m. ET
Hurston Waldrep makes his sixth career MLB start tonight, while Sandy Alcantara makes his 164th as the Braves and Marlins square off. Last night’s 2-1 game is what I’m hoping for here, as we’ve got a good pitching matchup in a good pitching environment.
Let’s start with Alcantara, the reason why this total is 8. He has a 6.04 ERA with a 4.95 xERA and a 4.32 FIP on the season. After missing all of 2024, it hasn’t been pretty for him. But, his 58.1% LOB% is a huge reason for the rough season. His rate stats look similar to 2023 when he had a 4.14 ERA and we’ve seen some flashes of 2021-22 Alcantara at times this season.
Take his last two starts for example, as he’s allowed two earned runs on just seven hits over 13 innings with 16 strikeouts against two walks. His 4.76 ERA at home is extremely misleading, as he has a .231/.284/.362 slash against with a .283 wOBA against. He’s earned most of his 8.03 ERA on the road, but that, too, is a byproduct of such a poor LOB% that he just hasn’t had any sequencing or batted ball luck. In the second half, he actually has a 3.56 ERA over 43 innings of work with a .291 wOBA against, so we’ve seen a bit of a correction.
Alcantara’s home FIP of 3.81 is more accurate and his 60.1% LOB% still has plenty of room to improve as we go along. The Braves and Marlins have .328 and .322 wOBAs, respectively, over the last 14 days, but this is a very good pitcher’s park as I mentioned earlier. Alcantara is also coming off of his best start of the season from a SwStr% standpoint.
Waldrep has been outstanding, as the 24th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft looks like the latest pitching win for the Braves. He’s made three starts and four total appearances in August with two runs allowed on 13 hits in 24.2 innings of work with a 24/6 K/BB ratio. He’s only allowed a 30.5% Hard Hit% with just a 3.4% Barrel%. Waldrep’s SwStr% has increased with each appearance and he’s getting a lot of swings and misses inside the zone right now – a good indicator of stuff quality.
We should get deep outings from both starters here, as Alcantara is a workhorse and Waldrep has terrific pitch efficiency. Both bullpens are fine from a workload standpoint as well.
Pick: Braves/Marlins Under 8 Runs (-112)
Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays (-164, 8.5)
7:07 p.m. ET
Bailey Ober is listed to start here for the Twins against a very potent Blue Jays lineup that jumped all over Joe Ryan to open up the series with a win on Monday night. My belief is that they have the chance to do the same today to Ober.
The Jays will counter with Chris Bassitt, but this is a one-sided handicap for me to look at the Blue Jays Team Total Over 4.5. Ober has been a bit better of late against the Athletics, Tigers, and Royals, but he’s very familiar with two of those lineups and the A’s are struggling offensively of late against righties.
Toronto’s lineup only has a .239 BABIP over the last 14 days against RHP, so they’re in line for a lot of positive regression as we move forward. Ober, who has a 5.05 ERA with a 4.39 xERA and a 5.10 FIP over 114 innings this season, has a major home run problem. He’s allowed 25 long balls in 21 starts and his problems are much worse on the road.
Ober has allowed a .310/.343/.530 slash and a .372 wOBA against on the road, where he’s given up 11 homers in just 47.1 innings of work. It is also worth noting that he has allowed a .321/.359/.631 slash with a .415 wOBA the second time through the order and a .262/.306/.505 slash with a .345 wOBA the third time through. That’s one reason why I’m looking at both the 1st 5 Team Total Over and full-game Team Total Over. Ober gets worse as the lineup turns over, but I still have some protection in the later innings.
I’m also looking to fade the Twins bullpen. They are 13th in ERA in August at 3.60, but 17th in FIP at 4.20 and have the third-lowest K% with the fifth-highest BB%. Trades ripped this group apart at the Trade Deadline and I think that shows up as we roll onward.
Lastly, Toronto has a .343 wOBA at home with a .271/.342/.451 slash. They are third in home wOBA and third in runs scored. They have scored 5.35 R/G at home compared to 4.53 R/G on the road, a number that was much lower before they crushed Rockies pitching at Coors Field. They are 43-21 at home and 34-34 on the road (with a negative run differential). They’re just a different team at home.
Picks: Blue Jays 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-105); Blue Jays Team Total Over 4.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (-131, 8)
7:45 p.m. ET
Based on the back-and-forth battle we saw last night, both of these teams are still pretty engaged in the season. The Cardinals are still on the fringes of the NL Wild Card race, sitting 5.5 games behind the Mets. The Pirates are just playing for pride, but that’s been the case for a while. And, to be honest, they are 45-49 under Don Kelly, so they’ve been much better than they were to start the season.
Tonight we get Mitch Keller vs. Andre Pallante. I’ve tried to pick on Pallante a lot this season. I seem to catch his better starts, but the guy is a terrible starting pitcher, so here we go again. He enters this start with a 5.17 ERA, 4.39 xERA, and a 4.61 FIP over his 134 innings of work. He has poor K% and BB% numbers. He’s still a ground ball wizard, but that’s really the only thing that he has going for him.
Keller has been riding the struggle bus to work for a little while, but this game does represent a step down in class. Over his last four starts, he’s faced the Blue Jays, Brewers, Reds, and Rockies at Coors. He was solid over 5.2 innings in that start against the Reds and I think something similar could be in line for tonight.
The Cardinals are just 25th in wOBA this month at .293 with a .248/.302/.365 slash. They’re not drawing walks and have a below average K%. The Pirates are actually swinging it quite a bit better this month with a .250/.329/.408 slash and a .322 wOBA. If we look over the last 14 days against RHP, the Pirates are 16th in wOBA at .320 with a 103 wRC+. The Cardinals are 27th in wOBA at .276 with a 76 wRC+.
It was left-hander Andrew Heaney that the Cardinals peppered last night and they’ve been a top-10 offense in that split. That was a miscue by Kelly to go to him.
My belief is that Oneil Cruz gets activated for tonight’s game as well, so hopefully he’ll be able to help the lineup after going on the concussion IL a couple weeks ago. I’ll trade a few cents and avoid a Pittsburgh bullpen with a league-high 6.00 ERA in August and ride with the 1st 5.
Pick: Pirates 1st 5 (+100)
Los Angeles Angels (-116, 8.5) at Texas Rangers
8:05 p.m. ET
When Patrick Corbin gave up the first three-run homer of Myles Straw’s career, that’s when I said that his one-year renaissance was officially over. Hell, maybe it happened before that, as he’s out to a 4.61 ERA with a 4.66 xERA and a 4.45 FIP in his 123 innings of work. At this point, he’s just swallowing innings for a team that isn’t going to make the playoffs.
In 29.2 innings in the second half, he’s allowed 21 runs on 36 hits and has just a 27/15 K/BB ratio with a .308/.388/.504 slash against. He’s been better at home than on the road, but welcomes an Angels crew with a .391 wOBA and a 154 wRC+ against LHP over the last 14 days. That has only been in 76 PA, but the Angels, for all of their offensive issues, are still second in MLB in Barrel% for the season. Corbin has allowed six Barrels in his last three starts and only has eight strikeouts over his last four starts.
Yusei Kikuchi is a guy that I’m looking to fade right now. He’s got a 3.42 ERA with a 4.39 xERA and a 3.98 FIP in 150 innings of work. He’s been worse on the road, not a huge surprise for a pitcher who gets to work in a ballpark with a marine layer. Kikuchi has a road ERA of 4.76 in 69 innings with a .286/.369/.455 slash against and a .359 wOBA against. Regression has been hitting, as he has a 4.38 ERA in 37 second-half innings compared to a 3.11 in 113 in the first half. He’s allowed a .309/.358/.497 slash in the second half.
The Rangers have been swinging it well against lefties over the last couple of weeks with a .326 wOBA and a 110 wRC+, including a high BB% and a low K%.
The Angels bullpen has some regression signs with a 10.5% BB% and a half-run gap between ERA and FIP this month. The Rangers bullpen is 23rd in ERA and 29th in FIP. Runs should come tonight in Arlington.
Pick: Angels/Rangers Over 8.5 Runs (-117)
