MLB Best Bets Today August 27:
A full dance card on the diamond doesn’t start until 6:40 p.m. ET, as all 15 games are night games on the betting board for Tuesday. Just about every pitching probable has gotten a good amount of run this season or, in the case of Johnny Cueto, is a guy we’ve known about for a long time, so there are a lot of data points on today’s hurlers. Hopefully that’ll help as we navigate the card.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for August 27:
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies (-142, 8.5)
6:40 p.m. ET
Justin Verlander and Aaron Nola square off in the second game of the Astros and Phillies series. The Phils drew first blood last night with a 3-2 walk-off win in 10 innings. In looking at tonight’s tilt, Verlander is making his second start since coming off the IL. He had a couple rocky innings to start, but set down the last 10 Red Sox in order and also had his highest fastball velocity since May 18. I felt like he settled in really nicely and didn’t allow a Barrel, while only allowing five hard-hit balls.
Nola, meanwhile, has been pretty lucky here of late. His strikeout rate is way down and he’s got some negative regression signs that may be coming to the forefront. He has a 3.45 ERA with a 3.91 xERA and a 4.03 FIP in 159.1 innings of work. In the second half, he has a 3.63 ERA with a 4.78 FIP. He only has 31 strikeouts against 14 walks in 39.2 innings of work and has allowed six homers with a 41.5% Hard Hit% and a 10.8% Barrel%.
Nola just happens to have an 85.3% LOB% over those seven starts to keep his ERA down. In 23 innings this month, he has a 3.52 ERA, even though he’s allowed a .344/.392/.548 slash with a .402 wOBA. To put that into perspective, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is batting .320/.396/.557 with a .403 wOBA for the season. So, Nola has not been sharp at all this month, but some fortunate sequencing has gotten him out of jams, as he has an 87.2% LOB% this month.
Yordan Alvarez returned to the lineup yesterday for Houston, so that’s a positive. Even though I’m trading some line equity on the full game, I’m not sure what happens in the late innings here, especially with all of the high-leverage relievers called into action for yesterday’s tight affair.
As a result, I’m sticking with the 1st 5 and taking Houston.
Pick: Astros 1st 5 (+110)
San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers (-115, 7.5)
8:10 p.m. ET
The Giants and Brewers were among the teams with Monday off, so they’ll fire up their series at American Family Field tonight. It will be Logan Webb and Tobias Myers in what amounts to a pretty interesting pitching matchup.
My focus here is on Webb and his road splits coupled with a Brewers lineup that has been very adept at drawing walks throughout the course of the season. Let’s start with Webb and compare his home and road numbers.
Home: 91.2 IP, 2.26 ERA, .221/.255/.301, .242 wOBA, 20.1% K%, 4.2% BB%
Away: 81 IP, 4.11 ERA, .285/.338/.379, .315 wOBA, 21.5% K%, 7.4% BB%
The biggest issue on the road for him is that his BABIP is 88 points higher and his LOB% is 6.6% lower. To me, that creates a bit of a mental hurdle to overcome, as Webb would be prone to feeling like his margin for error is lower on the road, therefore, he needs to be finer his pitches. I think that has something to do with the elevated BB% away from home.
Webb has had 2+ walks in 11 of his 27 starts. Eight of the 11 have been at home. Three of them have been against the Dodgers, with two of the three home games. The Dodgers are third with a 9.6% BB% this season. The Brewers are second at 9.7%. Webb has not yet faced the Brewers this season.
Milwaukee has a 10.1% BB% this month and a 10.2% BB% at home. Webb’s Walks Allowed prop is 1.5 at -120 in this one. I think that is a worthwhile endeavor given the matchup, the splits, and also the fact that Webb typically works really deep into games, so Brewers hitters will get a good number of looks. Webb has the second-most plate appearances against the third time through the order (200), trailing only Charlie Morton. Milwaukee has a 10.3% BB% the third time through the order.
Pick: Logan Webb Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-120)
