MLB Best Bets Today August 5
All 30 teams are back in action on Tuesday and every game is a night game, as the slate gets started at 6:40 p.m. ET and goes deep into the night. It will be a 5-5-5 format with five games in each league plus five interleague games for the other 10 teams. We had a bit of drama last night with some good endings in Queens, Arlington, and Pittsburgh, plus a few blowouts and some surprise results.
It hurt us yesterday, but the pitchers starting with new teams – Bailey Falter, JP Sears, Adrian Houser – all struggled and Michael Soroka left hurt, so we’ve got to keep that adjustment period in mind since it isn’t always going to work out as planned. Today we have Zack Littell for the Reds and Ryan Bergert for the Royals in those roles.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 5:
Houston Astros (-110, 8.5) at Miami Marlins
6:40 p.m. ET
The Astros and Marlins square off for Game 2 of their weekday set, as Houston drew first blood in yesterday’s matchup. Miami has been a terrific story for a while now and we’ll see if they can keep it up, but I don’t like how tonight’s game sets up for them.
Cal Quantrill gets the call, and while he’s been one of the most profitable starting pitchers this season, his numbers aren’t very good. Miami is 13-8 in his 21 starts, but Quantrill himself is just 4-8 with a 4.79 ERA, 4.80 xERA, and a 4.18 FIP over 97.2 innings of work. This season, righties own a .338/.376/.589 slash with a .410 wOBA against Quantrill. The Astros, even with their injuries, are still running out a ton of right-handed bats.
Also, Quantrill’s wOBA against is 19 points higher at home, but his ERA is over a run lower, so that’s an area that I’d pay attention to. I realize he’s only allowed one run on eight hits in 16 second-half innings, but I’m absolutely not buying that. This is a guy that allowed a .291/.347/.492 slash with a .361 wOBA in the first half. To put that into some perspective, Elly De La Cruz is batting .282/.359/.483 with a .359 wOBA, so that’s about what hitters collectively did in the first half against Cal.
Houston will roll with an opener and then AJ Blubaugh is likely to be the bulk guy. Blubaugh was just the PCL Pitcher of the Month for July, so he’s been throwing the ball well of late, despite what his season-long numbers say. He has a 5.76 ERA with a 5.33 FIP. It’s a miserable league to pitch in, so I’m not terribly worried about that. He had a 2.31 ERA and allowed just 16 hits over 23.1 innings in July.
I’d expect 3-4 innings from Blubaugh after an opener and the Astros have one of the league’s top bullpens, so that should give them an edge in the later innings.
Pick: Astros -110
Milwaukee Brewers (-150, 8) at Atlanta Braves
7:15 p.m. ET
The Brewers and Braves battle it out in Game 2 of their series tonight. We had a pitcher’s duel last night between Quinn Priester and Erick Fedde, as the Brewers escaped with a 3-1 win. Tonight’s pitching matchup features Freddy Peralta and Joey Wentz.
Peralta owns a 3.08 ERA with a 3.66 xERA and a 3.82 FIP on the season, but he’s allowed 10 runs on 15 hits in three second-half starts, allowing a .268/.379/.518 slash. He’s also got some massive home/road splits, as he has a 2.13 ERA over 67.2 innings at home and a 4.19 ERA over 58 innings on the road. His road BB% jumps up to 11.2 % and he’s got a 4.94 FIP due to the spike in walks and the fact that he’s allowed 10 of his 15 homers on the road.
Peralta has allowed five Barrels over his last three outings and his Barrel% is up to 9.0% for the season, which is pretty high for a pitcher of his caliber. He’s faced the Dodgers, Marlins, and Cubs in that span. While the Braves are not having the season that they envisioned by any means, they still have a talented lineup.
Wentz just might have found a new home, as he has a 1.80 ERA with a 2.97 FIP in three starts for the Braves. Atlanta’s been strapped for pitching due to injuries and they took a chance on the former top prospect as he went back to the team that drafted him way back in 2016. Whatever the Braves suggested, including a grip change to his cutter, has worked, as he has allowed four runs (three earned) on just seven hits in 15 innings of work.
Wentz has an 11.1% SwStr% to go with a 40.6% Chase Rate in his three starts. He’s only allowed one Barrel and just a 29.4% Hard Hit%. I’ll take a shot with the Braves for the 1st 5 at a nice price here.
Pick: Braves 1st 5 (+124)
New York Yankees at Texas Rangers (-129, 8.5)
8:05 p.m. ET
A thriller last night in the Lone Star State gave the Rangers their 59th win and they are now just one win behind the Yankees, who have dropped four in a row and enter at 60-53. The plan is to activate Aaron Judge from the IL for this one, as he’s missed some time with an elbow injury. They certainly need him, as they’ve posted an OBP under .300 here in the second half, but Judge returns to face a tough customer and the July AL Pitcher of the Month.
Nathan Eovaldi gets the call tonight for Texas in a big spot. He owns a 1.49 ERA with a 3.26 xERA and a 2.43 FIP over his 103 innings of work. Had Eovaldi not missed a bit of time, he’d have been an All-Star and, frankly, would be in the mix for the AL Cy Young. He may still be when all is said and done if he stays on his current track, as he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his 18 starts and has only allowed three twice.
Eovaldi has allowed two earned runs in his five July starts. He’s got a 50.8% GB% with over a strikeout per inning and just a 6.6% HR/FB%. He’s been nothing short of spectacular. Opposing batters are hitting just .201/.258/.295 against him at home with a .244 wOBA and his numbers are somehow better on the road. Just a magnificent season for him.
Despite yesterday’s offensive breakout, the Rangers are still just 26th in wOBA in the second half at .295 with a collective .229/.295/.386 slash line and an 88 wRC+. Texas is just 20th in wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days. But, even though there are some positive signs in the profile for Will Warren, he’s been simply awful on the road. Away from Yankee Stadium, Warren owns a 7.20 ERA in 45 innings with a .295/.368/.481 slash against and a .366 wOBA against.
The Yankees just don’t play clean baseball. Warren has allowed a .467 SLG in three starts since the All-Star Break. I don’t see New York doing much against Eovaldi. Also, Warren has allowed a .276/.372/.460 slash and a .361 wOBA with men on base. With the way that the Rangers are playing for the last little while, confidence is rising and Warren issues a lot of walks. Lefties actually have a .279/.376/.476 slash with a .370 wOBA and a 13.8% BB% against him.
The table-setters should get on for the Rangers and give them a good chance at keeping the good vibes rolling.
Pick: Rangers -129
