MLB Best Bets Today July 22

Just like yesterday, we have a full slate of MLB action and nothing but night games, as all 30 teams take the field. Just like last night, the first pitch of the evening will be at 6:40 p.m. ET, with starts in Miami, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh.

Like I mentioned yesterday, we’ve got some pitchers who haven’t thrown since before the All-Star Break, so it could be a little dicey for some of them on extended layoffs. Others will not be bothered at all and may even have enjoyed a little downtime to reset and get re-energized for the remainder of the season. It’s all on a case-by-case basis and something to consider with your handicaps.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for July 22:

Detroit Tigers (-132, 8) at Pittsburgh Pirates

6:40 p.m. ET

After a low-scoring series opener last night, another rock fight could be in the cards tonight. Casey Mize and Mitch Keller are the listed hurlers here, as they both get favorable matchups against slumping offenses.

Mize gave up six runs to the Mariners in his final start before the All-Star Break, but that was the first time since May 1 that Mize had allowed more than three runs in a start. He enters this outing with a 3.15 ERA, 3.29 xERA, and a 3.89 FIP over his 88.2 innings of work. Mize does a good job of limiting walks and homers and PNC Park is not a very good park for hitters, so this should be a good venue for him and a good matchup with a Pirates team that has only scored 23 runs over their last nine games.

The Tigers offense is also struggling, with just 24 runs scored over their last nine games. These two teams have combined to hit just 10 home runs in that span and both rank among the league’s worst in wOBA and other pertinent offensive categories over the two-week period that does include four days without games because of the All-Star Break.

Keller saw his ERA jump to 4.30 in the month of June, but he actually had his best month by wOBA against at .273, so he was pitching well, but falling on the wrong side of luck. We’ve seen that play out in his three July starts with just three earned runs allowed over 19.2 innings of work.

Two bad offenses, two good starters, two bullpens that are in pretty good shape, especially since David Bednar may still be available after needing just nine pitches for the save last night. It’s an Under play for me.

Pick: Tigers/Pirates Under 8 (-113)

San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves (-119, 9.5)

7:15 p.m. ET

Landen Roupp and Davis Daniel are the listed starters for this one down in Atlanta, as the Giants and Braves square off again. The Braves took down a 9-5 decision yesterday and their offense has really perked up of late. Over the last 14 days, which does obviously include the four-day All-Star Break, Atlanta is fifth in wOBA at .344 and they have a .476 SLG, so they’ve found the power production that was lacking throughout most of the first half.

Roupp is enjoying a fine season, but his home/road splits come into play in this one on a balmy night down in Georgia. At home, Roupp has a 1.80 ERA over 45 innings of work with a .243/.303/.296 slash and a .270 wOBA. However, he has a 4.56 ERA in 51.1 innings on the road with a .279/.361/.447 slash and a .352 wOBA. Roupp has allowed all eight of his home runs on the road and 19 extra-base hits, compared to just nine at home.

Also, Roupp’s BB% jumps to 10.9% on the road, as he is well aware of his away shortcomings and is trying to be too fine with his pitches. His road FIP is 2.2 runs higher than his home FIP. This will be his first start in 10 days, so we’ll see how sharp he actually is coming off of an extended layoff. He did pitch very well against the Phillies and Dodgers in his last two first-half efforts, but both of those starts were at home.

Hopefully Atlanta’s bats keep swinging it well and we get a little bit of rust from Roupp here. Because the Giants rank 24th in Outs Above Average, I’ll trade 10 cents and go with Braves 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 at -110 instead of Roupp Over 2.5 Earned Runs at +100. I do think either one is a good wager.

Pick: Braves 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-110)