MLB Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Tuesday, July 25th


MLB schedule today has 15 games

Seven interleague games make up a big chunk of the Tuesday MLB card, as we look ahead to a busy night on the diamond. Every game is 6:40 p.m. ET or later, so that means bettors and handicappers have a good bit of time to navigate through the pitching matchups and study the stats.


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Here are some thoughts on the July 25 card (odds from DraftKings):

Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals (-130, 9)

The Rockies did not have CJ Cron or Kris Bryant and still managed 10 runs in a game that saw a ton of late scoring. It’s rare that you see a 1st 5 Under with with ease and a full game skyrocket over the total, but there were 14 runs scored in the final four innings of this one.

We’ll see if today’s game plays out in a similar way between Austin Gomber and Trevor Williams. Gomber has a 6.18 ERA with a 5.97 xERA and a 5.70 FIP over his 102 innings of work. It’s been a long season for him and most of the Rockies pitchers, but at least Gomber is on the road here, where his numbers are still bad, but quite a bit better than at home. His ERA is over 2.5 runs lower and his slash line is lower by 67/33/109 points compared to his home numbers for BA/OBP/SLG. His wOBA against is 53 points lower as well.

He had been throwing the ball quite a bit better with exactly two earned runs allowed in each of his last four starts, but he allowed four runs on eight hits to the Astros last time out over six innings.

Williams has a 4.38 ERA with a 5.17 xERA and a 5.51 FIP in 98.2 innings of work. He had a good outing last time out, but that was largely due to sequencing luck, as he allowed seven hits and two walks over five innings with one strikeout, but somehow only allowed one run. He’s not a guy that the market values highly, as evidenced by this price point, and he doesn’t work very deep into games either, which puts a lot of strain on the bullpen.

This game is pretty high-variance with a ton of balls in play. The Nationals have been pretty good against lefties for most of the season, so maybe it helps here, but it’s hard to lay a number with either team nowadays.

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (-145, 8)

Andrew Abbott and Corbin Burnes square off as the Brewers look to continue their winning ways against the Reds. Milwaukee has won nine of the 11 head-to-head meetings this season and is now 6-1 in the last three weeks against Cincinnati. The Brewers won 3-2 last night, but the game could’ve been a rout if they got some timelier hitting. They were 2-for-16 with RISP, while the Reds were just 0-for-2.

For whatever reason, Milwaukee has played pretty flawlessly against Cincinnati this season. The last time Burnes faced the Reds, all he did was strike out 13 in six magnificent innings. He followed that up with 10 strikeouts in eight shutout innings against the Phillies. He’s been unbelievable in these two starts, with an uptick in curveball usage seemingly the reason. For the season, he has a 3.49 ERA and a 3.91 FIP with a 3.34 xERA. These two starts have really elevated his K% and made his numbers look a lot stronger, as he hit the Break with a 3.94 ERA and a 4.28 FIP.

That puts a lot of pressure on Abbott, who is a negative regression candidate. He has a 2.10 ERA with a 3.44 xERA and a 4.07 FIP over his 55.2 innings of work. He has a .192 BABIP against and a 95.5% LOB%. In 68 PA with men on base, he has allowed just a .131/.206/.279 slash and just a .095 BA with RISP. For a guy with a 44.2% Hard Hit% and a 9.4% Barrel%, those don’t seem like a whole lot of sustainable numbers.

For the season, the Brewers are 25th in wOBA against LHP at .300 with an 86 wRC+, but they are eighth in wOBA at .338 since June 15 with a 111 wRC+. Not only has new-look Burnes been incredible in the swing-and-miss department, but he’s only allowed five hard-hit balls in 23 batted ball events over those two starts.

The Reds wound up using Alexis Diaz in the ninth yesterday, so he’s pitched four of the last six days and I think that’s a concern. His usage rate is really high right now and, while it’s out of necessity, that type of workload can limit a guy’s explosiveness.Devin Williams would be working a third time in four days, but he had Thursday and Friday off, so that would be fine. Milwaukee’s pen is in better shape for sure.

With Abbott’s regression signs and Burnes’s tweaks, I’ll lay it with the Brewers tonight.

Pick: Brewers -145

St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks (-125, 9)

Merrill Kelly makes his return for the Diamondbacks in this one as he looks to get right back into rhythm coming off of the IL. Kelly’s performance was a big reason why the Diamondbacks got off to the start that they did, as he posted a 3.22 ERA with a 4.31 xERA and a 3.85 FIP over 95 innings across 16 starts. Kelly hasn’t pitched at the MLB level since June 24 and was sailing along before a calf injury interrupted his year.

Kelly had allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven straight starts before the calf became too much to bear and he gave up seven runs on 10 hits to the Giants over five innings in that June 24 start. The calf issue turned out to be a blood clot. Manager Torey Lovullo said that Kelly is good for up to 85 pitches here.

His xERA is up a bit because of some walk troubles early in the season coming out of the WBC. He’s also allowed a 40.3% Hard Hit%, which is about a percent above league average. Overall, though, he’s been really good. It’s just a matter now of how he returns from his extended IL stint.

Steven Matz gets the call today for the Cardinals, as he looks to build off of another strong outing. Since getting bumped from the rotation on May 24, Matz has a 2.93 ERA with a 2.99 FIP over his last 30.2 innings. The last 14.2 innings have come as a starter and he has allowed five earned runs (six total) on just nine hits with a 19/4 K/BB ratio. He has allowed a 45.7% Hard Hit% in that span, so that’s something to watch, but it seems like the bullpen stint has really helped him.

No play here with Kelly coming back from injury and Matz a different guy with his time in the pen.

Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (-275, 8.5)

It might be a little hyperbolic to say that yesterday was a devastating setback for the Padres, but I don’t think that it is. They really needed to sweep the Pirates in order to seriously entertain not being sellers. With the Game 1 loss, a bad outing from Yu Darvish, and a flustered and frustrated fan base booing the team, last night really could not have gone worse for this team.

At least today is Blake Snell Day with a chance to get back in the win column, but with each passing day, it looks like Snell and others will be on the move by Tuesday’s deadline. In fact, both of these guys will likely be on the move, as Rich Hill will also be a coveted hurler for some team in need of depth.

Snell now owns a 2.67 ERA with a 3.91 xERA and a 3.65 FIP in his 108 innings of work. This insane run that Snell has been on looked like it was going to come to an end last time out. Over five innings against the Blue Jays, he walked seven guys and gave up five hits. I don’t know how, but he somehow only allowed one run. He did only allow two hard-hit balls, so I guess that’s the reason, but it was one of the most insane stat lines of the year.

Snell has a 0.62 ERA with a 2.16 FIP in his last 58 innings over 10 starts with an 89/28 K/BB ratio. In that span, he’s allowed a 22.9% Hard Hit% and just four barrels. He has allowed two runs once, one run twice, and zero runs SEVEN TIMES. He’s also had five double-digit strikeout games in the mix. The 12 baserunners over five innings was basically the second time he did that, as he threw five shutout innings against the Angels on July 3 with seven hits and four walks, yet didn’t allow a run.

Hill may not net more than some sort of middling Double-A prospect with how he’s pitching, but he could be a bulk weapon to a team like the Giants or something. He’s got a 4.84 ERA with a 5.52 xERA and a 4.34 FIP over 109.2 innings of work. It hasn’t gone well lately, as he owns a 6.03 ERA in his last 37.1 innings of work, allowing at least three runs in all seven of those starts and more than that on five occasions. He only has six strikeouts against seven walks in his last three starts across 77 batters faced.

Obviously there’s not much we can do with this game.

Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers (-125, 8.5)

Griffin Canning and Eduardo Rodriguez start a very important series for the Angels. The Angels should be sellers and should move Shohei Ohtani, but they’re unlikely to do so, which means winning games is really the way to try and justify not making that decision. A series against the Tigers is a critical one, as the Angels need to either keep pace with everybody around them or maybe even find some way to gain ground.

As you know, Canning is a guy that I’ve watched very closely this season. He has a 4.52 ERA with a 4.23 xERA and a 4.74 FIP in his 79.2 innings of work. The long ball remains a huge issue with a 19% HR/FB% and 15 of them allowed in 15 starts. But, there are some positive signs in the profile as well. His 24.8% K% is up from the last two seasons. His 7.5% BB% is the lowest of his career. However, his Hard Hit% is also the highest of his career at 45.7% and his 9.4% Barrel% is also a concern.

I do like that he’s throwing his fastball less often and hopefully he can work on his slider in the offseason to make it more effective, since that’s where he’s put the decrease in fastball usage. I’d like to see more changeups and curveballs, personally, but I don’t have a say. In his first start in 10 days, Canning actually had his highest fastball usage since May 17 and his second-highest slider usage of the season to strike out 12 Yankees. He actually gave up five of his six hits on the slider, but the fastball generated eight of his strikeouts.

Because of how effective his changeup has been, Canning has been way better against lefties (.280 wOBA) than righties (.350 wOBA). The Tigers will have five in the lineup today, but Canning has allowed 10 of his 15 homers on the road and his wOBA is 50 points higher away from home.

It’s not that I was eager to go against Rodriguez, but I guess I’m trying to find ways to justify my opinions on Canning. E-Rod has a 2.69 ERA with a 3.42 xERA and a 3.14 FIP on the season over 14 starts. He’s been excellent with a terrific K/BB ratio and a good set of peripherals. A freak finger injury stole over a month from his season. In two starts after the Break, he’s allowed four runs on seven hits in 12 innings with 14 strikeouts against two walks.

I don’t have a play here. I thought about the Under, but these are two highly questionable bullpens. I thought about the 1st 5 Under, but the Tigers make a surprisingly decent rate of hard contact for how much they struggle to score runs and Canning’s road splits are rough. Ultimately, it’s a pass for me.

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians (-200, 8.5)

The Guardians are fading fast in the AL Central race, as the Twins keep winning and Cleveland can’t keep pace. The Guardians lost the first game to the Royals last night and couldn’t figure out Ryan Yarbrough, so we’ll see if they can figure out Zack Greinke. Greinke better fits the mold of guys they can hit, as they haven’t hit junkball lefties since the Clinton Administration.

Greinke is a junkball righty and one at the tail end of his career. He has a 5.40 ERA with a 5.14 xERA and a 4.92 FIP over 96.2 innings of work. He’s given up 18 homers in 19 starts and has one win in those 19 starts. He allowed two runs on four hits against the Tigers last time out in his first start in 16 days. 

He hasn’t allowed a lot of hard contact with a 37.7% Hard Hit%, but he doesn’t strike out many guys or walk many guys, so homers are just kind of inevitable. And Cleveland doesn’t hit many of them, so that’ll be a fun storyline to watch.

There seems to be some talk that Cleveland is willing to trade Aaron Civale. He made his MLB debut in 2019 and has only thrown 416 innings, so that might not be a bad idea. He’s got a 2.71 ERA with a 3.70 xERA and a 3.71 FIP this season over 63 innings. His upside is likely capped with a low K%, but he’s a guy with a deep pitch mix that is at his best when keeping hitters off-balance, like he’s done this season. In 11 starts, Civale has allowed four runs twice and no more than two runs in any other start.

Civale has allowed a .247 wOBA and just one run the first time through the order in those 11 starts. He’s allowed 10 the second time through with a .303 wOBA and eight the third time through with a .250 wOBA. Cleveland should be able to play from in front here. Let’s see if they do and take advantage.

Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins (-125, 7.5)

The Twins are priced in a similar spot tonight for George Kirby vs. Pablo Lopez as they were yesterday for Luis Castillo vs. Kenta Maeda. The Twins scored two in the bottom of the fifth to win the 1st 5 and then walked it off late for the win. It did turn out that not having Jhoan Duran proved to be a problem, as Griffin Jax blew the save before Andres Munoz blew one of his own.

So, both bullpens are up against it still in this one. The Mariners were 0-for-11 with RISP yesterday and the Twins were 4-for-6, so there’s your game right there. I wouldn’t touch the full game here with the bullpen situation, but you can certainly make a case for each starter and the 1st 5.

Kirby has a 3.23 ERA with a 3.83 xERA and a 3.33 FIP in 119.2 innings. Lopez has a 4.22 ERA with a 3.22 xERA and a 3.40 FIP in 121.2 innings. Lopez has way more strikeouts with a 30.2% K% and Kirby is at 21.7%, but Kirby has an elite BB% at 2.3%, while Lopez is still above average at 7%.

Lopez hasn’t quite been at his best since the All-Star Break with nine runs allowed on 14 hits in 10.2 innings of work. He has struck out 14 against five walks, but he’s allowed three homers and four barrels. Kirby was also bad in his first start of the second half, but then fired seven shutout innings against Minnesota with 10 strikeouts in his second outing.

I don’t see an edge here. Both guys can rack up the strikeouts against these lineups. Lopez is a positive regression candidate who keeps running into tough outings for whatever reason. It should be a great game and another thriller, but not a great one to bet on.

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros (-145, 9)

The Astros are incredible. They’ve had some turnover. They’ve had injuries. They’ve had plenty of mixed signals in the front office. They’re two games back in the AL West. Remember when the Rangers were up six games on June 28. They’re 10-11 in that span and they’ve lost four games in the standings, as the Astros are just flying under the radar to win a bunch of games and play well.

Houston is favored to cut the lead to one game as well with JP France on the hill against opener Yerry Rodriguez. France has a 3.13 ERA with a 4.25 xERA and a 4.43 FIP in 77.2 innings of work, so there are a lot of regression signs in the profile, including an 80.7% LOB% with a 17.1% K%. But, he just keeps churning out solid outings. In 11 of his 13 starts, he has allowed three or fewer earned runs. He’s allowed a 36.5% Hard Hit% and has only allowed one home in his last four starts and just three in his last seven starts after having a problem with that early on.

Rodriguez has a 5.06 ERA with a 3.57 xERA and a 3.28 FIP in 11 appearances as a reliever over 10.2 innings. Cody Bradford OR Owen White will bulk. Bradford has a 4.78 ERA with a 4.28 xERA and a 4.75 FIP, but I’m not really expecting that level of performance to continue. He had a 5.01 ERA with a 4.63 FIP in the Texas League in 2022, which is a hellacious place to pitch, but still. He had a 1.82 ERA, but a 4.26 FIP and a 5.70 xFIP in his 59.1 innings in the PCL. Given his 43.5% Hard Hit% and his 14.1% Barrel%, I’d be surprised if he’s able to keep up this kind of performance and it hasn’t even been that good.

Righties are only batting .227 against him in 97 PA, but have hit all six homers he has allowed and have six additional extra-base hits. Bradford has made one start since June 29, so I’m not sure how long the expectation is for him here. Owen White was recently recalled from Triple-A where he has a 3.94 ERA, but an 8.23 FIP after posting a 3.51 ERA with a 4.63 FIP in the Texas League. This may be a piggyback situation. He’s been really solid against righties, so maybe he gives the Rangers their best chance.

Houston is a little rich for my blood here, given that France has some negative regression signs and this is still a good Rangers lineup, even with Corey Seager hurt and Adolis Garcia day-to-day.

Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies (-125, 9.5)

Kyle Gibson and Taijuan Walker are the listed starters for this one after last night’s 3-2 win for Baltimore. Getting seven innings from Dean Kremer was huge for the Orioles, as they had a tired bullpen, but were able to cobble things together and find a way to get it done. That’s what good teams do and the Orioles are a really, really good team. It probably wouldn’t have mattered with the loss on this total, but both Adley Rutschman and JT Realmuto didn’t start in this one and Alec Bohm was only used as a pinch-hitter. Neither team put its best foot forward last night.

Gibson now has a 4.76 ERA with a 4.68 xERA and a 3.85 FIP on the season. He had the bare bones definition of a quality start last time out with eight strikeouts over six innings, but gave up three runs on seven hits to the Rays. Since June 11, Gibson has a 6.29 ERA, but it comes with a 3.69 FIP. He has a 57.9% LOB% and has actually increased his K% in that span, but he’s had little to no sequencing luck.

He’ll have to deal with a tired bullpen again here, as Felix Bautista and Yennier Cano have both worked four of the last six days and two back-to-backs, so I have to think Brandon Hyde is very careful with how he deploys his guys in this one.

Walker has a 4.11 ERA with a 4.36 FIP, but he’s been much better since June than he was early in the season. Walker and pitching coach Caleb Cotham added a little more athleticism to his delivery and that led to an increase in velo. There was also a little bit of a pitch mix change, but he’s got a 2.34 ERA and a 3.18 FIP In his last eight starts. He has allowed four runs in two of his last three starts, but he hasn’t been hit all that hard in either one and he’s allowed one barrel in his last six starts.

Two of the runs in that Rays start on July 5 happened on a pop up to shortstop. He gave up a three-run homer to Christian Yelich last time out in the third on a ball that had an expected batting average of .290.

This isn’t based in anything statistical and could very well be complete BS, but I can’t help but feel like there’s a letdown from Baltimore today. They got over the hump of their series win against the Rays and won without Rutschman and without their two best relievers in a one-run game.

Both teams should be back to their regular lineups here and I think the Phillies get the job done today. Rain and storms are a factor here. If this game starts late, I like Philadelphia even more, as the Orioles probably won’t be super engaged given the emotions of the last five days.

Pick: Phillies -125

Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays (-205, 7.5)

The Marlins head into the Sunshine State series against Tampa Bay having lost eight of nine in the second half. My season win total Under is still likely dead and buried, but they’ve really had a reversal of fortunes of late. Their only win, of course, is by one run, but they’ve lost three one-run games in this stretch. They’re still 22-9 in those, but that record is coming back down to earth a little bit.

While everybody is using the narrative of Eury Perez getting sent down to monitor his innings, the truth is that the Marlins have scored 28 runs in nine games and that makes it really hard to win. Of course, they’ve allowed five runs per game as well. Braxton Garrett has had a couple of rough outings. Sandy Alcantara still can’t put it together. But, maybe Edward Cabrera can.

In his first start in over a month, Cabrera allowed one run on just two hits to the Cardinals with six strikeouts and three walks. He only allowed one hard-hit ball and it was a solo homer. Cabrera had not pitched since June 13 at the MLB level and didn’t make any rehab starts, so I was shocked to see him be as effective as he was. We’ll see if he can keep it going against a Rays offense that has been dormant for a while.

The struggling Marlins offense draws Tyler Glasnow, who has a 3.62 ERA with a 3.30 FIP. He does have a 4.11 xERA because of a 49.2% Hard Hit% and a 14.6% Barrel%. He’s allowed a ton of hard contact around a 34.9% K%, so he’s been missing a lot of bats, but also not missing a lot of barrels. In his 10 starts, he’s allowed more than three runs just once, so he’s navigated the hard contact well.

Nothing from me here, as Cabrera’s wildness makes him tough to trust, given that he has a 4.50 ERA with a 4.55 FIP, due in large part to a 14.2% BB%.

New York Mets (-120, 8.5) at New York Yankees

Another chapter of the Subway Series will be written here, as Justin Verlander goes for the Mets and Domingo German goes for the Yankees. Verlander comes in with a 3.47 ERA, 3.39 xERA, and a 3.98 FIP over his 83 innings of work. As I talked about, his K% is way down this season with a 7.2% decrease from last season. His BB% is up 3.2% as well. But, he’s finding a way without the strikeouts to still be effective.

In fact, Verlander has allowed just six earned runs in his last five starts. He was a little shaky in his first start after the All-Star Break with three runs allowed over five innings to the Dodgers with six walks, but he allowed one run on three hits to the White Sox with seven strikeouts over eight innings in his second effort.

Given what the Yankees offense has done for the last six weeks, he should be in fine shape to have another good outing. He did on June 14 against them with a run on three hits in six frames.

The weird season for German has continued. He has a 4.52 ERA with a 4.08 xERA and a 4.62 FIP in his 97.2 innings of work. He has a perfect game on his resume, but has allowed 10 runs on 14 hits in 16.1 innings since. What’s crazy about that is German has 23 strikeouts in those three starts and a Hard Hit% of just 34.2%. He has definitely fallen victim to the BABIP gods here recently and has pitched better than his stats would suggest.

I don’t really like anything in this one. I appreciate how Verlander has found ways to get by and he’ll likely pitch well in this one against this version of the Yankees, but German has thrown the ball better than his numbers show.

Atlanta Braves (-140, 10.5) at Boston Red Sox

Charlie Morton will start for Atlanta. The Red Sox have not yet named a starter coming out of Monday’s off day. Nick Pivetta may end up bulking, as he threw 15 pitches on Saturday. He’s been downright filthy as a reliever, as his stuff is really playing up in that role and he may be playing himself into a super interesting trade piece for some team as a leverage relief weapon.

Since May 21, Pivetta has 53 K in 36 innings with a 2.25 ERA and a 2.67 FIP. He’s only allowed three home runs and been extremely good in that bulk capacity. Moving to relief has allowed his velo to play up and he’s been more effectively mixing the slider and curveball. It’ll be interesting to see what he does against the Braves if he is called upon. He’s a guy that has allowed a ton of hard contact as a starter throughout his career and the Braves make a ton of hard contact. As a reliever, though, he’s been completely different, so that makes it fun to keep an eye on this game.

We know it will be Morton, who has a 3.36 ERA with a 4.53 xERA and a 3.69 FIP over his 109.2 innings of work this season. He had a string of six straight starts with three or fewer earned runs allowed snapped in his last outing against the Diamondbacks with four runs on six hits in 5.2 innings. He only struck out four against three walks. He has allowed just a 36.6% Hard Hit% on the season and has been under 32% in four of his last five starts, so he’s been throwing the ball well for the most part.

Not much to say on this one. Even with some pitchers with upside, betting Fenway Unders seems like a bad idea.

Chicago Cubs (-115, 9.5) at Chicago White Sox

Kyle Hendricks and Michael Kopech battle it out on the South Side here as the Cubs and White Sox participate in their crosstown rivalry. Kopech bounced back from an absolute disaster against the Braves on July 14 with five decent innings against the Mets. He faced eight batters against Atlanta and walked four, hit one, and gave up a grand slam. He walked four against the Mets, but only allowed a solo homer and one other hit in 5.2 innings.

Kopech had some shoulder fatigue going into the All-Star Break and walked 16 batters in his last three starts before getting shut down for a couple of weeks. The return against the Braves wasn’t what he had hoped for, but the outing against the Mets looked more like what he did over a six-week stretch in May and June.

Hendricks has a 3.38 ERA with a 3.86 xERA and a 4.21 FIP in his 64 innings. His K% is way down at 16.1%, but the rest of his peripherals look good and look a lot like what we’ve seen from him throughout his career.

It looks like he made some adjustments in his last start, as he allowed one run on five hits against the Nationals over six solid innings. In his previous two starts against the Yankees and Red Sox, Hendricks allowed nine runs on 18 hits over 10.1 innings, including six home runs. It’s not like Hendricks was hit all that hard. The Red Sox did have four barrels and all four left the yard, but of their other 13 batted balls, only two were hit hard. He’s allowed a Hard Hit% under 32% in five of his last six starts. 

I just feel like the Cubs are a better team than the White Sox and Hendricks should have a higher floor than Kopech. The Cubs have won five of six and the White Sox have lost five of six. Chicago has scored almost seven runs per game since the All-Star Break. They are still the only team in the NL Central with a positive run differential. I’ll trust them in this one as they push towards .500.

Pick: Cubs -115

Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants (-255, 8.5)

The Giants are a massive favorite here in the Bay Area rivalry against the A’s. Ken Waldichuk is said to be starting for Oakland, but we’ve seen them roll with a lot of openers and bulkers this season, so who really knows. To be honest, it isn’t a game I have any measure of interest in.

Alex Cobb has been solid on the season with a 3.15 ERA and a 3.40 FIP, but he just allowed five runs on nine hits to the Reds and didn’t strike anybody out out of the 24 batters that he faced. He also walked four guys. Not really much more to add.

Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers (-140, 9)

Chris Bassitt and Julio Urias square off here at Dodger Stadium as the Jays try to ride the wave of last night’s extra-inning win. After not being used the first several days coming out of the All-Star Break, Jordan Romano has been used four of the last five days for Toronto, so I would presume that he’s unavailable here. Trevor Richards threw 29 pitches and struggled, so I don’t think we’ll see him after throwing 56 pitches over the last four days.

The Jays are a little shorthanded here. Yimi Garcia worked a fourth time in six days as well and Erik Swanson had thrown 58 pitches over the previous four days, so he wasn’t used. At least he and Tim Mayza are okay for tonight, but the Jays are in a tough spot if this is a close game.

That puts a lot on the shoulders of Bassitt, who has a 3.92 ERA with a 4.40 xERA and a 4.55 FIP in 121.2 innings of work. Bassitt has been good over his last five starts with eight runs allowed on 29 hits. He struck out 12 against the Giants in six excellent innings on June 29, but has only struck out 19 batters in 22 innings since. But, he’s pitched well overall. He’s also faced the White Sox, Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Padres, so this represents a bit of a step up in class.

Julio Urias is coming off of one of the worst starts of his career with eight runs allowed on eight hits in five innings against the Orioles. He only allowed a 33.3% Hard Hit%, as the Orioles scored four in the first and kept going from there. He allowed just one hit over six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts in his previous start.

Urias had a velocity drop and a decrease in spin rate on his fastball, cutter, and slurve, so I’ll be keeping a close eye on that here. He wasn’t hit super hard by the Orioles, but he did not generate whiffs on his slurve or fastball like had in previous starts. I h