MLB Best Bets Today June 10

After a relatively light day on the diamond on Monday, we’re back to a full dance card on Tuesday, as all 30 teams are scheduled to take the field. It will be an all-evening affair, with zero day games to take away the monotony of the work day, with our first game not going off until 6:35 p.m. ET.

On the bright side, it does look like all 15 games should go off without a hitch, as weather concerns are few and very far between for tonight’s action. We don’t even have any windy conditions to consider as part of the handicap either.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for June 10:

Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians (-113, 8.5)

6:40 p.m. ET

The Reds and Guardians continue their interleague rivalry series, as Cincinnati drew first blood yesterday with a 7-4 decision at Progressive Field. The Reds have won all four head-to-head meetings with Cleveland thus far, something that has to make former Guardians skipper Terry Francona rather happy. His team will go for another win tonight and absolutely has a good shot at it with left-handed pitcher Andrew Abbott on the mound.

The Guardians were more successful last night with Wade Miley than they’ve been with most southpaws, but Abbott is a far better pitcher. Over the last 30 days, the Guardians have a .268 wOBA against lefties that ranks 24th, as they’re batting .227/.294/.301 in that span with a 26.5% K%. For the season as a whole, they have a .273 wOBA with a .224/.292/.319 slash and a 25.4% K%. Stephen Vogt has remained insistent on using platoons, which puts better hitters like Daniel Schneemann and Kyle Manzardo on the bench with guys like Will Wilson and the post-Tommy John David Fry.

Abbott comes in with a 2.18 ERA, 3.23 xERA, and a 3.44 FIP in 53.2 innings of work across 10 starts this season. He’s struck out well over a batter per inning and held the opposition to a 29.6% Hard Hit%. He’s an extreme fly ball guy, so he’s given up a 9.6% Barrel%, but the Guardians are 28th in Barrel%, so I wouldn’t be too concerned here.

Slade Cecconi gets the call for Cleveland here. The numbers are not great with a 4.87 ERA, 7.04 xERA, and a 6.12 FIP in four starts over 20.1 innings of work. He made his Guardians debut against the Reds back on May 17 and allowed three runs on five hits in five innings, but he let the first two guys reach in the sixth inning and then got pulled. Cecconi’s only blemish over the 1st 5 was a solo homer from Will Benson.

He battled his way through five innings against the Yankees last time out and only has one truly terrible start to his name, as the Angels got five runs and hit three homers off of him. While the Angels are not a good team overall, their 11.3% Barrel% is second in MLB. New York leads the league in Barrel%. Detroit is seventh. Cincinnati is 25th. So, I think this is a better spot for Cecconi overall.

I like a few bets here. I like 1st 5 Under 4.5 at -110. The Guardians are collectively batting .210/.281/.353 in the first three innings of games this season and Abbott is very likely to shut them down. I also think this is a better matchup for Cecconi than most that he has had.

I also like Abbott Over 4.5 Strikeouts. It’s juicy at -145, but he’s gone over this number in seven of his 10 starts, including his five-inning effort against Cleveland on May 18. He had a 15.6% SwStr% in that start, second only to his April 18 start against Baltimore, and it came with just a 24.5% Chase Rate, so he was getting lots of Whiffs in the zone.

Picks: Reds/Guardians 1st 5 Under 4.5 (-110); Andrew Abbott (CIN) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (-115, 9)

7:10 p.m. ET

Ryan Pepiot and Lucas Giolito will be the pitching matchup for this one at Fenway Park on Tuesday night. I’m not interested in anything for the full game, but these two bullpens have had some very heavy usage, so buyer beware on that front. The Rays endured blown saves from three different pitchers yesterday before winning in 11 innings. The Red Sox used Aroldis Chapman a third straight day.

Anyway, I’m actually looking at Pepiot here and a plus money player prop. Pepiot’s Over 5.5 Strikeouts is +110. He struck out eight Red Sox in six innings when he faced them back on April 15 and that’s even with giving up six runs on nine hits. He’s really efficient with his pitches, as he’s only walked 22 batters in 76 innings of work, pitching at least six innings in all but one of his last 10 starts.

Pepiot struck out eight Rangers last time out in six innings. His five starts prior to that were against the Astros, Blue Jays, Astros, Blue Jays, and Phillies, teams that rank 9th, 1st, 9th, 1st, and 8th in K%. The Red Sox have the fifth-highest K% in baseball and fourth-highest against RHP. I know they’ve made some changes and called up some exciting prospects, but they have the second-highest K% against RHP over the last 30 days at 27.7%.

I’ll take the shot here with Pepiot, who had a lot of swing and miss earlier in the season, including a 15.7% SwStr% against Boston and a 17.7% SwStr% last time out against a Texas team that has the ninth-highest K% in the league.

Pick: Ryan Pepiot (TB) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)

New York Yankees (-206, 8.5) at Kansas City Royals

7:40 p.m. ET

The Yankees and Royals fire up a set at Kauffman Stadium today on a pretty warm day in KC. First-pitch temps will be in the mid-to-upper 80s and this is a park that plays pretty well to the power alleys in the summertime. Two southpaws get the start here, as the Yankees turn to Max Fried, who has been spectacular, and Noah Cameron, whose MLB career is off to a terrific start.

My approach in this game is to fade the 25-year-old Cameron, who has a 0.85 ERA in five starts over 31.2 innings of work, but I don’t see that sticking around long. He has only struck out 19 batters against 10 walks and a 7.6% K%-BB% is not going to get it done for long. He’s got a .148 BABIP against and a 99.1% LOB%. Those two stats are as ripe for regression as any in MLB.

He’s not an extreme ground ball guy or anything like that and while his 40% Hard Hit% is in the realm of league average, it surely doesn’t support a .148 BABIP. He’s also not a hard thrower and has allowed a 47.8% Pull%. As guy reliant thus far on getting Whiffs in the zone with a 19% Chase%, I’m really worried about him in this start against a potent Yankees lineup that leads the league in wOBA against southpaws.

Cameron’s 23.3% Pull AIR% is one of the highest in baseball for starters and this is not exactly the lineup you want that against. His two main offerings – a four-seam fastball and changeup – have xSLG marks of .508 and .491, respectively. I think the Yankees 1st 5 Team Total Over is cheaply lined today.

Pick: Yankees 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-105)

Toronto Blue Jays at St. Louis Cardinals (-118, 8.5)

7:45 p.m. ET

Chris Bassitt and Miles Mikolas square off here, as two age-36 wily veterans are the listed starters. Bassitt enters with a 3.56 ERA, 3.59 xERA, and a 3.44 FIP over his 13 starts covering 73.1 innings. Mikolas has a 3.96 ERA with a 4.35 xERA and a 3.67 FIP in his 12 starts over 61.1 frames.

Bassitt had a really good rebound effort last time out with seven innings of one-run ball against a very good Phillies lineup on the heels of duds against the Athletics and Rays. He’s a little bit of a Jekyll and Hyde guy at times, but that was a very encouraging start against a good lineup, so I think he can ride that wave here. The Cardinals are 18th in wOBA at .306 over the last 30 days against righties and they’re dropping in the full-season numbers as the season goes along.

Bassitt’s contact management numbers are pretty solid with a 36.5% Hard Hit% and an 8.1% Barrel%, which rank in the 75th and 52nd percentiles, respectively. His average exit velo against actually ranks in the 84th percentile and his BB% ranks in the 87th percentile. There’s a lot to like in the profile and he’s a guy that just knows how to pitch, especially with that 65th percentile GB%.

Mikolas knows how to pitch too and has always gotten by with his low K% numbers. Expect even fewer swings and misses and strikeouts today against a Blue Jays lineup that has been the league’s best at avoiding strikeouts. Mikolas has somehow only allowed four homers this season despite a 9.8% Barrel% and a 42.4% Hard Hit%. Unlike Bassitt, his GB% is pretty average, so I think he’s gotten tremendously lucky this season in some areas. 

The Cardinals also seem to have a Ryan Helsley problem, as their closer and best reliever by far, has blown saves in three straight games, including last night after the Cardinals had a miracle eighth inning to take the lead.

I have to ride the Blue Jays again today.

Pick: Blue Jays -103