MLB schedule today has 15 games
Every team in baseball will take the field on Tuesday night, as all 15 games are also night games around the big leagues. We also have a few more division series happening during this weekday run, as the new schedule chopped off 24 division games and it sure feels like we haven’t had many of them recently.
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With six games in the NL, six in the AL, and three interleague matchups, we’ve got plenty to get to and plenty of action to discuss, so let’s dive right in for June 20.
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Here are some thoughts on the June 20 card (odds from DraftKings):
Atlanta Braves (-140, 8.5) at Philadelphia Phillies
Spencer Strider and Ranger Suarez get us started as the surging Phillies take on the NL East-leading Braves. Atlanta has ripped off six wins in a row themselves, sweeping a doubleheader from the Tigers and then sweeping the Rockies in a four-game set at Truist Park in which the combined score was 40-12. This is certainly a step up in class for the Braves given their recent schedule.
The Phillies have also won six in a row and are very much in the Wild Card hunt now after getting off to a slow start. While they’re not on Atlanta’s level offensively for the month of June, they’ve played a better schedule and are still a top-10 offensive team over the last 19 days.
Strider is having some issues lately. The right-hander has allowed 13 runs on 15 hits, including five home runs, in his last two starts. If we go back to May 17, he has a 6.47 ERA with a 5.84 FIP over his last 32 innings pitched. He still has 48 strikeouts in that span, but has also allowed 10 home runs and at least one in every start. He’s given up 11 barrels in that span as well.
The Braves get a lefty today in Suarez, who comes in with a 3.82 ERA, but a 3.07 FIP in his 37.2 innings pitched. He’s only allowed two home runs on the season and has only allowed two runs on 16 hits over his last 20 innings pitched. He’s allowed more hard contact than usual with a 39.3% Hard Hit%, but he also has a 53.2% GB%, so he’s kept the ball down effectively.
Tough one here, as the over crossed my mind with Strider’s recent results and Atlanta against a lefty, where they have a league-leading .301 average and .383 wOBA. I just didn’t feel enough conviction to play it.
Chicago Cubs (-130, 8) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Marcus Stroman and Johan Oviedo are listed for this NL Central battle between the slumping Pirates and the charging Cubs. Chicago has won six of seven and eight of 10 to get back into the thick of things in the NLC. The Pirates, meanwhile, are honoring Tom Petty by freefallin’ with losses in seven straight, eight of nine, and 10 of 12.
Stroman is having a big year for the Cubs, but the regression signs are mounting. He’s got a 2.45 ERA with a 3.73 xERA and a 3.43 FIP in his 91.2 innings of work. Home run avoidance has been huge for him this season with only five long balls allowed, but a .235 BABIP with a 60.5% GB% has really never been done before. He has an average K% and an elevated walk rate, but because of the way that the defense has played behind him, he’s been able to limit baserunners, while also running the highest LOB% of his career at 78.9%.
He has now gone six straight starts with two or fewer earned runs allowed. Maybe he’s going to continue this outlier season, but I’ll be looking for spots to attempt to go against him. It just won’t be today with the Pirates in such a big funk.
Oviedo has a 4.40 ERA with a 4.06 xERA and a 3.81 FIP in his 75.2 innings of work. He, too, has avoided the long ball, but his walks and a .310 BABIP have been hurtful, as he has also posted a 68.5% LOB%. Oviedo struck out eight Cubs over 4.1 innings last time out, but allowed four runs on eight hits. A similar performance today may be curtains for his team, as Pittsburgh has gone back to not really hitting during this recent skid.
Still, with some of the signs in Stroman’s profile, I’d be worried about backing him today or really any day.
St. Louis Cardinals (-150, 8.5) at Washington Nationals
One of two games with two left-handed starters is this matchup in D.C. between the Cardinals and the Nationals. It will be Jordan Montgomery for the road favorites and MacKenzie Gore for the home dogs, as perception and reality may be different for these two offenses at present. We think of the Cardinals as crushing lefties, but they’re down to 19th in wOBA against LHP at .317 and have just a 101 wRC+.
The Nationals, meanwhile, who were a top-five team against southpaws not that long ago, have fallen to 12th, but still have a .331 wOBA with a 106 wRC+. Washington’s offense has actually been quite bad all month long regardless of handedness, so we’ll see if they can right the ship here against a tough customer in Montgomery. The 30-year-old southpaw has a 3.91 ERA with a 4.12 xERA and a 3.62 FIP in his 78.1 innings of work. All of his peripherals look fine and mostly in line with his career averages.
The lone hiccup that stands out is a .325 BABIP against, which is definitely on the high side with a 36.8% Hard Hit% on the season. He has allowed 23 barrels, which is a few too many, but he’s only given up eight homers. Even with their recent struggles, the Nationals are a bit of a step up in class, as Montgomery has faced the Giants, Reds, Pirates, Guardians, Reds, and Brewers in his last six starts. Cincinnati’s offense surely looks different, but that group features a few league average offenses against lefties and then two in Cleveland and Milwaukee that are awful in this split.
Gore has a 3.74 ERA with a 4.53 xERA and a 4.15 FIP over his 74.2 innings of work. His 82.2% LOB% is doing some hard work to keep that ERA down. His high K% is helping with the art of stranding runners, but Gore is not making life easy on himself with a 10.1% BB% in light of his .323 BABIP. That’s a lot of traffic on the bases and a 16.2% HR/FB% doesn’t help either.
Through it all, he’s been sort of Snellian, as he’s allowed more than four runs just once in a start and more than three runs just three times in 14 outings. He’s even worked around a 43.1% Hard Hit%. I thought I’d like the Nationals at a dog price against the Cardinals, who are just floating around, but Washington is playing quite bad right now.
Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds (-195, 10)
We’ve reached the point where we’re paying top of the market pricing on the Reds, who have reeled off nine wins in a row and just Joey Votto back in the lineup. Ben Lively is on the mound and this team is nearly a $2 favorite against Noah Davis and the Rockies. I fully realize the Rockies aren’t very good and neither is Davis, but this would have been a ludicrous price to think about up until this point.
Davis is back up from Triple-A Albuquerque to make his first MLB start since April 29. In his three April starts, he allowed nine runs on 16 hits, but seven of those runs came in one start. He has a 6.31 ERA over 25.2 innings at Triple-A, but pitching in the PCL and in a place like Albuquerque basically means making each start at Coors Field or worse. That said, the numbers are still not very impressive from a K/BB standpoint and the 26-year-old is a fringy big leaguer at best.
So is Lively, who has a 4.07 ERA with a 4.32 xERA and a 4.59 FIP in 42 innings pitched. He’s got an 81.3% LOB% doing some work and his last three starts have been quite bad. He’s allowed 14 runs on 26 hits in his last 19.1 innings pitched. He allowed 10 hits, but only gave up two runs last time out against the Royals. Maybe the Reds are working their magic on him, but the shine does seem to be coming off. Unfortunately, it’s hard to trust Colorado’s offense anywhere, especially away from home, so I don’t see a great reason to bet Over 10 and certainly don’t see a reason to fade the Reds against Davis.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers (-125, 9.5)
The Diamondbacks rolled to an easy 9-1 win in the series opener yesterday by besting Corbin Burnes, as Merrill Kelly turned in another fine start. The Snakes can secure a series win here with a matchup between Ryne Nelson and Colin Rea. That task may be tricky because Nelson comes in with a 5.30 ERA, 5.35 xERA, and a 4.72 FIP over 71.1 innings of work. The pitch-to-contact righty has a low 14.7% K% and a .293 BA against, so a lot of those batted balls have found holes.
It doesn’t help to allow a 43.2% Hard Hit% or a 10.4% Barrel% when you can’t get strikeouts or swings and misses to increase your margin for error. Nelson has earned his .323 BABIP and disappointing peripherals. He’s hard to trust in any matchup, even one against a bad Brewers offense.
Rea has a 4.71 ERA with a 4.41 xERA and a 4.81 FIP in his 57.1 innings of work. He’s managed a few more strikeouts than Nelson, but has given up the same number of homers in 14 fewer innings. He’s allowed a 43.9% Hard Hit%, though his Barrel% is lower at 7.3%. Still, his barrels seem to have been more detrimental.
I’m not sure either starter is trustworthy here, but 10 is a big total, especially with Milwaukee expected to shoulder part of the burden. I think it’s an easy pass in this one.
San Diego Padres (-120, 8.5) at San Francisco Giants
It’s been a tough MLB season, but getting one back with the Giants in walk-off fashion last night felt pretty good. With Josh Hader unavailable because he worked back-to-back days (something I even neglected to mention), the Padres blew a two-run lead in the ninth and then got walked off in the 10th on a three-run bomb into the cove from Mike Yastrzemski.
It looks like Seth Lugo will be activated from the IL for this one, as he returns from a calf injury that cost him more than a month. Lugo had a 4.10 ERA with a 3.95 FIP when he went out, allowing five runs on four hits in two innings in his final start while trying to work through the issue. He did not make any rehab starts, so he’ll be limited today. He threw a couple sim games and a bullpen over the course of the last week and a half, but game conditions are certainly different.
Lugo only has a 7.1% SwStr% on the season and the Giants really do well, especially against righties, when they are making contact. They are sixth in wOBA against righties despite the fifth-highest K%. Lugo may not be terribly sharp here and doesn’t generate a lot of swings and misses even if he is.
Anthony DeSclafani gets the call for the Giants with a 4.31 ERA, 4.56 xERA, and a 3.83 FIP in his 79.1 innings of work. His low K% at 18.2% is hurting his FIP and his LOB%, which sits at 62.9%. Otherwise, a lot of his peripherals seem okay. That said, his Hard Hit% over his last six starts is 48.9%, so he’s given up a ton of loud contact.
I’ve got a lean towards the Giants at a dog price with Lugo coming back a little rusty, but this one probably comes down to the bullpens and San Diego will be a lot closer to full strength tonight.
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-175, 7.5)
The O’s are down in the Sunshine State for a very quick two-game stop against the Rays. They two teams have only played three times this season and Baltimore took two of three in a trio of low-scoring games at Oriole Park. In this one, they’ll send Kyle Bradish to the hill and the AL East-leading Rays will counter with Tyler Glasnow.
Bradish has a 3.90 ERA with a 4.50 xERA and a 3.80 FIP in his 60 innings of work. It was a weird start to the season for him, as he got hit by a comebacker and wound up missing 16 days. Then he struggled a bit through his next three starts, which makes sense since you get built up and ready to go for the season and then have a setback. Since getting settled in on May 12, Bradish has a 2.90 ERA with a 3.16 FIP in 40.1 innings of work. He’s struck out 34 and only walked seven, holding the opposition to three or fewer runs in six of those seven outings. He only struck out one Blue Jay in 24 batters faced last time out, but had 33 K in 33 innings prior to that.
Bradish has a high xERA because of some hard contact against from earlier in the season, but he has a 40.5% Hard Hit% in his last seven starts and his highest mark is 45.5% against the Brewers in a game where he had 10 strikeouts. I think he’s a little bit undervalued in the market right now and I was on him last time out against Toronto, but the offense didn’t help him at all.
Glasnow has a 3.43 ERA, but it comes with a 6.87 xERA and a 4.23 FIP in his four starts across 21 innings pitched. He has a 29.5% K% and a 12.5% BB%, so there haven’t been a ton of balls in play, but he has a 51% Hard Hit%, mostly due to his first start against the Dodgers with an 80% HH%. He has not allowed more than three runs in any of his first four starts with 26 K against 11 BB.
I don’t think it’s a big ask to have Bradish cancel out Glasnow here, which would put a rested Baltimore bullpen up against a Tampa bullpen that has stabilized recently, but is the weaker of the two units. The Orioles are sixth in ERA (3.53), second in FIP (3.43), and third in K% (26.8%), while the Rays are 15th in ERA (3.94), 25th in FIP (4.54), and 28th in K% (20%).
Felix Bautista and Yennier Cano have worked twice in the last six days and everybody in the pen had Monday off. I like Bradish and think he could even be better than Glasnow here. If nothing else, this one may go to the pens and I’ll take Baltimore’s pen in the +150 range over anybody. Shop around, as you can find this one as much as 10 cents better at some shops.
Pick: Orioles +150
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (-150, 8.5)
Daniel Lynch and Michael Lorenzen meet in Game 2 between the Royals and Tigers. This barnburner of a series is off to a 1-0 start for Detroit, as the Tigers came from behind to win 6-4. Kansas City has lost 12 of its last 13 and couldn’t even win one for Jordan Lyles, despite a decent start from him. It has to be hard to go to the ballpark every day if you’re the Royals.
Lynch has a 5.79 ERA with a 5.11 xERA and a 5.38 FIP in his 23.1 innings of work since an extended rehab stint. He just allowed seven runs on seven hits to the Reds and gave up four home runs in his most recent outing. To be honest, there are a few stats to like about Lynch. He has a 36% Hard Hit% and a 13.1% SwStr%. He’s getting a lot of swings and misses on pitches inside the zone and he’s done a pretty good job of working ahead in the count. The fact that it has only translated to 20 strikeouts in 103 batters is a little surprising in light of those numbers.
I’m not saying that I’ll be eager to back him or the Royals anytime soon, but I think there is a little bit of hidden value in his profile. He hasn’t pitched as bad as his numbers would indicate. This has been the better split for the Tigers, so the left-hander may not be in as advantageous of a spot, but I’ll be interested to see what his final line looks like.
Lorenzen owns a 4.23 ERA with a 4.44 xERA and a 4.55 FIP as he’s fallen on some tough times. His K% is down to 17.9% and his home run rate has jumped significantly. He’s allowed 12 runs on 16 hits in his last two starts and given up four home runs with only six strikeouts in 54 batters faced. Lorenzen faced the Braves and Diamondbacks, so two lineups way more impressive than Kansas City’s.
In 11 starts, though, Lorenzen has allowed at least five runs five times and one or no runs five times. He’s been a boom or bust guy to say the least, so let’s see if he booms or busts here on a perfect night for baseball in Detroit.
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees (-115, 7)
A lot of respect here for George Kirby and the Mariners, as we’ve seen this line tick down as much as 20 cents for the lid lifter at Yankee Stadium between Seattle and New York. Gerrit Cole will go for New York, hence the low total of 7. It will be a little humid in the Bronx this evening, but an otherwise lovely night for baseball.
Kirby was dominant last time he faced the Yankees with eight shutout innings and just three hits allowed back on May 31. He went on extra rest on June 7 and looked uncomfortable in his start against the Padres with five runs allowed on 11 hits. Back on a mostly regular turn, he threw six innings with 10 strikeouts against the Marlins with an unearned run allowed. Kirby has a 3.24 ERA with a 3.11 FIP on the season and is pitching on a couple extra days of rest here.
Admittedly, while I like Kirby and the Mariners a lot, it always catches your attention when a guy like Cole is lined so low. He’s got a 2.75 ERA with a 4.03 xERA and a 3.50 FIP in his 91.2 innings of work. Cole’s K% isn’t where we’re used to seeing it, but neither is his HR/FB%, so that’s a really good thing.
After a couple of rocky outings against the Orioles and Padres, Cole has adjusted and allowed just four runs on 15 hits in his last 18 innings with 19 strikeouts against three walks in starts against the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Mets. Cole has allowed five earned runs three times and just 13 earned runs otherwise in his other 12 starts. He did not face Seattle during that series at T-Mobile Park.
I don’t really think Cole is a good matchup for the Mariners. They have a 25.6% K% against righties this season, which is third behind the Twins and A’s. Overall, they are 23rd in wOBA with a 98 wRC+ against righties. If we look just on the road, they are 17th at .304, which is actually lower than what they’ve done at home. Their 10% BB% on the road is doing a lot of heavy lifting, as they only have a .308 OBP and a .381 SLG. They have a 25.5% K% against righties on the road, so that hasn’t really changed based on the venue.
I think Cole is too cheap here. Seattle’s offense doesn’t really match up well, as Cole typically avoids walks and is a guy that has run a K% over 30% in each of the last six seasons. His SwStr% is down this season, but he’s throwing even more first-pitch strikes and the Mariners will swing and miss a lot. I like Kirby, but he’s on the road in a better hitting environment.
Pick: Yankees -115
Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians (-250, 9)
Not much to say here, as Cleveland is an overwhelmingly large favorite against Oakland. The Guardians and their offense probably don’t deserve to be this big of a favorite and Aaron Civale isn’t really a high-level arm, but it’s the A’s. Oakland was a pretty competent offense on the road earlier this season, but that changed during the month of May. They are still 12th in road wOBA against righties, for what it’s worth.
Cleveland is terrible against lefties and Ken Waldichuk is a lefty, but he’s a rather bad one with a 6.64 ERA, 5.75 xERA, and a 6.61 FIP. He’ll serve as the opener today for what appears to be a bullpen game for the A’s. Waldichuk has a 5.68 ERA in 12.2 innings with a .463 OBP against as a reliever.
This game is just atrocious.
Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins (-140, 8.5)
Kutter Crawford and Bailey Ober are the listed starters here with the Red Sox off of a resounding 9-3 win in the series opener. Crawford has a 4.20 ERA, but a 3.20 xERA and a 3.84 FIP in his 40.2 innings of work. He’s got over a strikeout per inning and a really good walk rate, but he’s allowed a few too many homers this season. That being said, three of the six homers he’s allowed came in his first appearance of the season back on April 3. He’s only allowed three long balls in 36.2 innings of work since.
Crawford has just a 32.5% Hard Hit% against and is working to get stretched out as a starter. This will be his fourth straight start and he has allowed seven earned runs on 13 hits in 10 innings. So, it hasn’t gone all that well, but his underlying metrics suggest that it could work going forward. He has an 11.2% SwStr% in those three starts and draws a Minnesota offense that swings and misses a ton, so we’ll see if he can have some success in that department.
His pitch count has gone up from 40 to 58 to 80 in these starts, so if you’re looking at a strikeout prop, he should work fairly deep into this one, though 4.5 with -160 on the Over at DraftKings is excessive.
Ober is a guy that I really like. He has a 2.65 ERA with a 3.89 xERA and a 3.54 FIP in his 57.2 innings of work. He has only allowed more than three earned runs once in his 10 starts. He has nearly a K per inning and a good walk rate, while also mostly limiting the long ball. I’ve talked about this before, but Ober is 6-foot-9. He has to be a really hard matchup for teams seeing him for the first time or the first time in a while. It is not surprising that he has a 12.8% SwStr% on the season. The only team to see him twice is Cleveland and they went from a 15.4% SwStr% in the first start to a 7.7% SwStr% in the second. This will be Boston’s first look at him.
I gave some thought to the under, but the two bullpens are a little scary. It’s also going to be in the mid-80s in Minneapolis. The wind is blowing in, but still. Wind impacts are decreased with warm conditions unless the wind is really extreme. Winds around 10 mph are not extreme.
Texas Rangers (-140, 8.5) at Chicago White Sox
Nathan Eovaldi and Dylan Cease battle it out on the South Side in Game 2 of this series. The Rangers came away with the Game 1 victory and will look to secure a series victory today. They’ve secured quite a few victories in Eovaldi starts, as he has a 2.59 ERA with a 3.13 xERA and a 2.85 FIP in his 93.2 innings of work.
All of the peripherals look quite good for Eovaldi, who has had a couple of mediocre outings recently with four runs on seven hits over 6.1 innings against the Rays and three runs on five hits against the Angels, but he did strike out nine in that start. He has allowed a Hard Hit% of 50% or greater in each of those two outings, including six of the 16 barrels he’s given up this season, but the Angels and Rays are two top-five offenses against righties.
You know who isn’t? The White Sox, who rank 29th in wOBA against righties. They don’t walk at all, don’t hit for power, and strike out at a top-10 rate in that split. This does not look like a good matchup for Chicago at all, especially because Eovaldi has only allowed six home runs on the season and has a 51% GB% with a 25.5% K%. The White Sox are not at all built to manufacture runs and aren’t a very good baserunning team.
Cease has a 4.31 ERA with a 4.35 xERA and a 4.05 FIP in his 79.1 innings of work. He still has the big K% at 26.2%, though that is down over 4% from last season. He’s also got a 10.7% BB%, which is in line with last season. His Hard Hit% is up 16% from last season. He’s been better about it in his last two starts against the Marlins and Dodgers, but the numbers just aren’t great for him.
The Rangers are third in wOBA against righties at .341 and have a 118 wRC+, which ranks second. Not only does Texas have a big offensive advantage here, but they have a good-sized pitching advantage as well.
I’ll lay the number here and ride the Rangers in what looks to be a pretty good spot.
Pick: Rangers -140
Toronto Blue Jays at Miami Marlins (-120, 8)
Yusei Kikuchi and Eury Perez get us started with the interleague portion of the show, as the Marlins lay a short price with their prowess against lefties and Kikuchi’s uninspiring profile. Kikuchi has a 4.31 ERA with a 5.14 xERA and a 5.77 FIP in his 71 innings pitched. He has a strikeout per inning and a really solid walk rate, but he’s allowed 19 home runs in just 14 starts. He’s at least going to a park that generally suppresses power, but the Marlins are fourth in wOBA against lefties at .344 with a 118 wRC+.
There will be a ton of exposure on Jorge Soler to hit a home run tonight and he’s hit nine of them in just 68 PA against lefties, so I can’t blame bettors for lining up on that prop. Miami is eighth in wOBA against LHP at home at .338, so that’s definitely a bit lower than what they’ve done on the road, but considering the park factor, that’s still impressive.
Perez is off to a fine start to his career with a 1.80 ERA, 3.79 xERA, and a 3.91 FIP in 35 innings of work. He’s struck out 25.4% of batters faced and his BB% is high at 9.9%, but you can deal with that when it comes to a .188 BA and a .227 BABIP. His 92.6% LOB% is high and regression signs are all over the place, but the kid has really good stuff and that has never been in question.
He’s allowed one run over his last 21 innings pitched. I think a lot of people will look at this line and say it looks suspiciously low and I can’t say that I blame them for thinking that way. I can’t get out of my head how much of a regression candidate the Marlins are as a team, but this sure does look like a decent spot for them going against Kikuchi and with what Perez has done.
Much like what I talked about with Ober, Perez is 6-foot-8 and that’s a weird thing to see for the first time. He has a 12.7% SwStr% and that doesn’t really surprise me. The regression signs in his profile are enough to keep me away here, though, as Toronto is up there with the Angels as the best lineup he’s seen. He’s faced the Reds (May 12 before all the call-ups), Nationals, Rockies, Angels, A’s, White Sox, and Mariners.
New York Mets at Houston Astros (-145, 7.5)
Max Scherzer and Hunter Brown disappointed a little bit yesterday, at least if you are a fan of the Astros and/or pitcher’s duels. We did not get one there, but Scherzer dominated over eight spectacular innings. Will Justin Verlander be able to do the same? Verlander faces his former team for the first time since signing with the Mets over the winter. He’ll be opposed by Astros ace Framber Valdez.
Verlander has not been himself this season with a 4.40 ERA, 3.84 xERA, and a 4.43 FIP over 45 innings pitched. His K% is down quite a bit and his HR rate is back up around where it was in 2019. The difference is that he had a 35.4% K% in 2019 and he has a 21% K% this season. If he follows the “every other start” pattern that has emerged, he’s going to get blasted here. Over his last six starts, he’s allowed one, five, one, six, one, and six runs dating back to May 16. That kind of inconsistency is not at all something we’re used to seeing from JV.
Valdez has been really consistent this season with a 2.27 ERA, 3.84 xERA, and a 2.84 FIP in his 91 innings of work over 14 starts. He has allowed more than three earned runs just once this season and had eight strikeouts over four innings in that start against the Cubs. Since that start, he’s allowed five earned in five starts over 34 innings pitched. His 44.4% Hard Hit% has been on the decline in recent starts, as he’s done a bit better about avoiding loud outs, but his 57.7% GB% has diminished the impact of that hard contact.
I don’t really have a play on this one, though. I think the Astros make some sense, but they’re missing a big power bat in Yordan Alvarez and usually the long ball is the best way to score off of Verlander. That said, righties own a .470 SLG against him on the season and he’s been much worse outside of Citi Field. Just not a game I’m strongly interested in.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-135, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
The Battle of Los Angeles describes this series and is also the title of a really good Rage Against The Machine album. Clayton Kershaw and Reid Detmers are the two hurlers in question here with a total of 8.5 at the Big A. It will be a really nice night for baseball in Anaheim with a bit of a helping breeze blowing out and temps in the low 70s.
Kershaw has a 2.95 ERA with a 3.52 xERA and a 3.63 FIP in his 82.1 innings of work, while Detmers has a 4.48 ERA with a 4.38 xERA and a 3.49 FIP in his 62.1 innings pitched. Kershaw has had a trio of strong starts in a row from a results standpoint, but he’s allowed some hard contact in those starts. He just tied a season-high with three barrels allowed against the White Sox in his last start. In his two previous starts against the Yankees and Reds, he had allowed a 53.3% Hard Hit% and a 50% HH%.
Detmers may be experiencing some of his positive regression with two strong back-to-back starts against the Cubs and Rangers, who are both good offenses against lefties. Detmers has allowed two runs on eight hits with 16 strikeouts in his last 11.2 innings. He’s been exceptional the first two times through the order and then fallen off the third time through in a big way. That would be a concern with a Dodgers lineup that works a lot of deep counts and draws a lot of walks.
I have a lean towards the Angels here, but I’d need a better price to play it. Kershaw stabilizing over his last two starts makes it tough for me to outright fade him, which is something I would have done if he hadn’t gotten back on track.
TL;DR Recap
Orioles +150
Yankees -115
Rangers -140
