MLB Best Bets Today May 6

Back to a full dance card in Major League Baseball, as we have 16 games on the slate for today. The Guardians and Nationals have a doubleheader in D.C. and everybody else will play a regularly scheduled game on May 6. After having a limited number of interleague games last week, we’re back to a 5-5-5 split, with the sixth game added due to rain.

Game 1 of the double dip is the only afternoon game, so everybody has a longer chunk of time to handicap today’s action. Well, except for me, as I need to get this article out around the normal time for all the readers.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for May 6:

Texas Rangers (-120, 8.5) at Boston Red Sox

6:45 p.m. ET

Former Red Sock Nathan Eovaldi gets the start at Fenway Park as Lucas Giolito makes his home debut as a current Red Sock. This is a game that I looked at from a lot of different angles before ultimately deciding on a wager.

This looks like an outstanding matchup for Eovaldi. The way he’s throwing the ball this season, it’s hard to say that any matchup is less than optimal. He has a 2.11 ERA with a 2.31 FIP over 42.2 innings of work with a ridiculous 46/3 K/BB ratio. He’s only allowed three homers and just 30 hits on the season. While he has given up some hard contact with a 41.8% Hard Hit%, a lot of those have been ground balls and those are a lot less hurtful.

The Red Sox have the highest swing-and-miss rate in baseball on fastballs from right-handed pitchers (four-seam, two-seam/sinker, cutter) and Eovaldi ranks in the 94th percentile in fastball run value. He’s also in the 74th percentile in Whiff% and 82nd percentile in K%. This matchup should allow his fastball to actually play up, as it only has a 9.2% Whiff% this season, but had a 17.8% Whiff% last season.

The majority of his swings and misses have come from splitters and curveballs, so he absolutely has those necessary out pitches with two strikes. I did look long and hard at Over 5.5 Strikeouts and paying the juice at -140, but there is a rain threat and that could sabotage this bet if there’s a delay.

Giolito had seven punchies over six innings against the Blue Jays in his first start of the season, but we need to look deeper at that start. He allowed three runs on five hits, including a couple of homers. Giolito’s SwStr% in that start was just 7.8%. He had a Z-Contact% of 93.8%. But, he had a Zone% of 60%. He had an outlandishly high CStr% of 23.3%.

The Rangers lead the league in Swing%. I expect them to be way more aggressive than Toronto was, even though the Blue Jays rank eighth in Swing%. For whatever reason, they were waiting back on Giolito. Texas shouldn’t make that mistake after seeing the results from his first start. Giolito was basically only fastball/changeup in that start, as he rarely leveraged his slider. That allows the Rangers to eliminate pitches.

With the Rangers -130 for the 1st 5, I’ll shoot for a better price and take the Rangers 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 at +110. I really do think this is an outstanding matchup for Eovaldi, who shouldn’t get himself into trouble with fly balls or walks.

Pick: Rangers 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (+110)

Philadelphia Phillies (-125, 8) at Tampa Bay Rays

7:05 p.m. ET

The Phillies and Rays fire up an interleague set down in the Sunshine State here with a strong pitching matchup between Zack Wheeler and Drew Rasmussen. Wheeler is off to another fine start with a 3.48 ERA, 2.48 xERA, and a 3.29 FIP in his 44 innings of work. Along with the full-run difference between his ERA and xERA, Wheeler’s .215 BA comes with a .199 xBA and his .291 wOBA against comes with a .260 xwOBA.

In other words, Wheeler has actually been better than his 3.48 ERA, but seven homers, including four with men on base, have been to blame. Over the last 14 days, the Rays are only batting .224/.291/.321 as a team with a .277 wOBA and an 80 wRC+. They’ve only hit seven homers in that span, which is the second-fewest in the league behind the Padres and Brewers.

A major lack of contact quality is to blame, as the Rays have a 37% Hard Hit% that ranks 23rd and a 6.3% Barrel% that ranks 298th. On the flip side, the Phillies are ninth in that span in Barrel% and second in Hard Hit% at 9.1% and 47.2%, respectively. Philadelphia has a .263/.328/.414 slash with a .328 wOBA and a 107 wRC+ over the last two weeks.

Rasmussen is a solid hurler, but there are a couple of concerns in this matchup. The first is that he only has two starts out of six with a double-digit SwStr%. He has a .248 wOBA against with a .294 xwOBA, so basically the opposite of Wheeler. He ranks in the 21st percentile in average exit velocity and 34th in Whiff%. The Phillies should make more contact and better contact in this one.

The Rays bullpen is also under the spotlight for me. While they rank sixth in ERA at 2.97, they rank 20th in FIP. An 83.5% LOB% is doing a ton of heavy lifting for them right now. Meanwhile, the Phillies have been unlucky in that department with a 67.4% LOB% and an ERA that is almost a run higher than their FIP.

Ultimately, it’s hard to pass on Wheeler at this price, especially with the better supporting cast on offense. The Phillies also have the third-lowest swing-and-miss rate on fastballs (four-seam, sinker/two-seam, cutter) from righties, adding more fuel to the “balls in play” fire.

Pick: Phillies -125

Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers (-125, 8)

7:40 p.m. ET

The Astros and Brewers play Game 2 of this interleague set tonight at AmFam Field. These two teams are both .500, with the Astros 17-17 and the Brewers 18-18 on the young year. So, one team will tip that scale in its favor after tonight’s result.

Hayden Wesneski gets the call for Houston after getting skipped in the rotation. Wesneski was effective against the Royals in his last start with two runs allowed on eight hits over five innings, but his fastball velo was down 2 mph in that start and it was his first outing with a single-digit SwStr%. Previously, he had SwStr% of 13.6%, 14.6%, 10.8%, and 10.6%, so I think it made sense for the Astros to give him a bit of a breather. He’s pitched at least five innings in every start as he transitions back to being a full-time starter.

But, I really do like what I’ve seen from Wesneski overall. He walked three Giants in his April 1 start, but has only walked one batter in 23 innings since. He has allowed six home runs, but the Brewers are 19th in wOBA against RHP, 22nd in SLG, and rank dead last in Barrel% overall at just 5.7%.

The Astros will be missing Yordan Alvarez, who has struggled against RHP this season anyway, but could very well run out an all-right-handed lineup against righty Chad Patrick. Patrick looks like another Brewers success story as a starting pitcher who doesn’t have flashy or overwhelming stuff, but finds ways to get outs. He has a 2.87 ERA with a 3.82 xERA and a 3.70 FIP in the first 31.1 innings of his MLB career.

Patrick is an extreme fly ball guy with just a 26.4% GB%, but it has worked for him. Despite all of those fly balls, he has only allowed a 5.5% Barrel%, surrendering just five of them in 91 batted ball events to this point. Patrick has thrown 46.3% cutters this season and the Astros come into this game 27th in batting run value per Statcast against cutters. This should be a good matchup for Patrick as a result.

Houston’s bullpen is fifth in K% and owns a 2.95 ERA with a 3.04 FIP. The Brewers pen doesn’t rack up nearly as many strikeouts, but they’ve found enough ways to get outs in late-game situations. They’re also an above average defensive team once again. The Astros are actually second in MLB in Outs Above Average.

Pick: Astros/Brewers Under 8 (-110)