MLB Best Bets Today September 16
Key Highlights:
- Padres vs. Mets Prediction
- Reds vs. Cardinals Pick
- Marlins vs. Rockies Prediction
We have 16 games on the Tuesday schedule, as a doubleheader from a May 21 rainout features the Braves and Nationals. Because there are 15 teams in each league, we always need at least one interleague series and it is the Angels and Brewers who drew that particular assignment. Otherwise, the other 28 teams will play within their own league. And that means we have some really big games in terms of the playoff picture.
The only day game is Game 1 of the double dip, so baseball bettors have a lot of time to dig into the card and find their favorite plays on a night with a lot of options.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 16:
Padres vs. Mets Prediction (-125, 8)
7:10 p.m. ET
This huge series begins tonight between the Padres and Mets, as San Diego sits five games ahead of New York in the NL Wild Card race. More importantly, New York is 1.5 games ahead of the Diamondbacks, so every game is meaningful from here on out. It will be Michael King and Clay Holmes, with an expected piggyback behind Holmes of Sean Manaea.
King is making just his second start since returning from the IL for the second time. King was out from mid-May until early August. He got rocked in a rehab start and the Padres brought him up anyway, where he gave up two runs in two innings and only faced 11 batters before hitting the IL again. He was decent in his September 9 start against the Reds with two runs on three hits over five innings, but he only struck out two of 19 batters faced and had just a 1.6% SwStr% and a 16% Chase Rate. It was pretty clear that King still had a lot to work on. He did use Petco Park to his advantage by filling up the strike zone, but still.
Holmes is probably running out of gas. While he has a 3.75 ERA with a 4.05 FIP for the season, he has a 4.72 ERA with a 3.54 FIP in the second half. The low FIP is a byproduct of allowing only one home run, but his K% is down from 19.2% to 17.6% and his BABIP has shot up to .340 with his decreased command and control. Since July 19, Holmes has allowed 4+ runs in five of his 10 starts and faces a Padres lineup that ranks fifth in wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days.
We’ll see how relief works out for Manaea, who has allowed 28 runs in his last 32.2 innings of work. He’s got a 7.71 ERA with a 4.86 FIP in his last seven starts, including 4+ runs allowed in six of them.
I do like the Padres bullpen quite a bit and the Mets pen has a 5.38 ERA over the last 30 days, but a 3.81 xERA and a 4.03 FIP, so they’ve gotten a bit unlucky. So, I’ll look for some early scoring in this one and fade the starters and Manaea.
Pick: Padres/Mets 1st 5 Over 4.5 (-110)
Reds (-122, 8) vs. Cardinals Pick
7:45 p.m. ET
Andrew Abbott and Michael McGreevy are the listed starters here, as the Reds look to rack up another win in hopes of getting closer or keeping pace in the NL Wild Card chase. Abbott is a good guy to have on the mound for that. Overall, he has a 2.79 ERA with a 3.50 xERA and a 3.70 FIP over 151.2 innings of work. He’s already set a career-high in starts and innings pitched at the MLB level, which also more than doubling his career fWAR.
Abbott has seen a little bit of negative regression creep in over the second half, as his ERA has gone from 2.07 up to 3.88, but he hasn’t seen a significant drop in K% or a huge bump in BB%. It has just been a natural progression with an 86% LOB% in the first half and just a .259 BABIP. He’s at 72.1% and .279 in the second half.
He should be in line for a good outing today, as the Cardinals have a .237 wOBA with a 54 wRC+ against LHP over the last 14 days. Extend it out to 30 days to increase the sample size and they have a .266 wOBA with a 71 wRC+. More importantly, they have just a .294 SLG, which is key because one of Abbott’s second-half issues has been a higher home run rate.
McGreevy, a 25-year-old right-hander, has a 4.44 ERA with a 4.62 xERA and a 3.84 FIP in his 79 MLB innings. He’s actually been a good contributor for a rotation that badly needed innings. Like Abbott, though, his numbers are on the rise and a lot of it has to do with his K% dropping to 12.7% in the second half. He’s stingy with walks and forces guys to put the ball in play, but he’s obviously subject to a lot of batted ball variance.
That’s why he’s allowed 1, 6, 1, 4, 4, 3, 0, 4, 7, and 2 runs over his second-half starts. Given that Abbott is likely to be really sharp, I’ll take my chances on McGreevy not having overly strong results, especially since the Reds only had a 5.4% Whiff% against him three starts ago, even though they fell on the wrong side of batted ball luck.
Cincinnati has had the lesser bullpen recently, but Abbott has the chance to work deep into the game here and limit the exposure for some of the lesser arms.
Pick: Reds -122
Marlins (-149, 10) vs. Rockies Prediction
8:40 p.m. ET
Let’s head to the Mile High City, where Eury Perez and veteran Kyle Freeland are the listed hurlers. Perez is having a rough go of it lately. He has a 4.67 ERA with a 3.44 xERA and a 4.11 FIP for the season, but he has a 5.47 ERA in 47 innings across the second half. He’s also allowed all 11 homers on the road, where he has a 6.44 ERA in 43.1 innings compared to a 2.63 ERA in 37.2 in the friendly confines of loanDepot Park.
He is about as far away from loanDeport Park as he can be getting the start at Coors Field here. The 6-foot-8 right-hander has allowed 15 runs over his last 10.1 innings of work. He’s allowed 12 runs in his last 4.2 innings on the road, including four homers. In fact, Perez has allowed at least four runs in each of his last four road starts.
So, the Rockies should have a puncher’s chance here. Also, the Rockies are welcoming the Marlins and Angels to Coors Field for the final homestand of the season. Colorado’s recent opponents have been Padres, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Cubs, Astros, Pirates, Dodgers. They did get swept by the Pirates in a road series, but they’ve played a lot of division games against teams vastly superior to them and then also the Cubs and Astros, who will both be playoff teams in all likelihood.
I have to think a veteran like Freeland is aware and will be focused to go out there and have a good outing. He has a 4.97 ERA with a 4.96 xERA and a 4.31 FIP in 145 innings of work for the season, but a 4.20 ERA in the second half and just had an outstanding start against the Padres with eight shutout innings and 10 strikeouts. He gave up one earned run over 5.2 innings against the Dodgers last time out.
I’ll take my shot with Colorado here. Perez is not good on the road and struggling with his command overall after missing all of 2024. He gave up four runs in 4.1 innings with a 3/3 K/BB ratio in his only Coors Field start. The Marlins are 20th in wOBA against LHP over the last 30 days.
Pick: Rockies +122
