MLB Best Bets Today September 2
Key Highlights:
- Dodgers vs. Pirates Prediction
- Mets vs. Tigers Prediction
- Guardians vs. Red Sox Pick
The MLB slate for Tuesday is missing one game, as 28 of the 30 teams take the field for the second day of September. Four games in the NL, five games in the AL, and five games of interleague action. There are a couple of big favorites on the board, as the Guardians are a massive underdog to Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox, while the other heavy underdog is the Rockies.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 2:
Dodgers (-172, 8.5) vs. Pirates Prediction
6:40 p.m. ET
Clayton Kershaw will start the six-game road trip for the Dodgers against Carmen Mlodzinski and the Pirates. The Pirates have been swinging it really well against lefties lately, but Kershaw continues to shine. He’s got a 3.06 ERA with a 3.63 FIP over 88.1 innings of work. He’s allowed just six runs over his last five starts and he’s only allowed three walks.
The Pirates have done really well for two reasons. First, they have a 13.3% BB%, although it is only 88 plate appearances in the last 14 days. Second, they have a .340 BABIP, so they’ve been having a lot of luck on batted balls. It is a small sample size and Kershaw has a low walk rate with a .276 BABIP. He also has just a 4.4% Barrel% for the season. He has 3.5% Barrel% with a 38.8% Hard Hit% over his last five starts.
Mlodzinski obviously has an interesting assignment against the Dodgers, who are just 13th in wOBA over the last 14 days against RHP. A high walk rate has helped them as well, but Mlodzinski has only walked nine of 159 batters at home. He has a 2.00 ERA over 27 innings here in the second half with a .189/.260/.263 slash and a .238 wOBA.
At home, Mlodzinski has a .284 wOBA against and just a 2.56 ERA. He has only allowed one home run in that split. With the Dodgers making the long trek east and the pitcher-friendly conditions of PNC Park, I think this one gets off to a slow start offensively. Mlodzinski isn’t all that stretched out, so there will be a lot of relievers and I don’t trust the bullpen to do that much heavy lifting.
Pick: Dodgers/Pirates 1st 5 Under 4.5 Runs (-110)
Mets (-133, 8.5) vs. Tigers Prediction
6:40 p.m. ET
Nolan McLean and Sawyer Gipson-Long meet in a battle of young starters, as the Mets lay a road price against the Tigers. The Tigers have had a ton of success against lefties of late, but not at all against righties. Detroit ranks 26th in wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days with a .281 wOBA and they have just a .216/.282/.357 with a 24.9% K%.
McLean has a 0.89 ERA and a 2.58 xERA with a 2.44 FIP over his first three MLB starts. He has over a strikeout per inning and has done a great job limiting walks as well. Furthermore, he has a 68.1% GB% and has been a guy north of 50% throughout his minor league career. Strikeouts and ground balls are a pitcher’s best friends, as it makes them really hard to string together a lot of hits against to have multi-run innings.
Gipson-Long has some of those attributes, but he hasn’t really shown the ground ball prowess at the big-league level. He’s given up four homers in 25 MLB innings this season with nine Barrels allowed already. He’s allowed a 40.5% Hard Hit% and Stuff+ is not a huge fan of his arsenal. His sinker grades as a plus pitch, but that’s it. His Location+ is good, but the Mets are obviously a top-tier lineup and one that doesn’t strike out a whole lot.
The Mets did use six relievers yesterday, but nobody threw more than 15 pitches. That could come in really handy because I do expect them to work with a lead in this one.
Pick: Mets -133
Guardians vs. Red Sox Pick (-268, 7.5)
6:45 p.m. ET
Slade Cecconi and Garrett Crochet are the listed hurlers here, as the Guardians face long odds. They can’t hit lefties, so that makes a ton of sense. But, my focus here is Boston’s offense against Cecconi, who has not been pitching well lately. He’s allowed a .274/.303/.532 slash with a .351 wOBA in 47 innings in the second half with a 5.55 ERA. He’s given up 11 home runs in that span.
The Guardians bullpen hasn’t done well of late either. Manager Stephen Vogt only uses Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith with a lead, which means that some lesser relievers are likely to come into the game. Erik Sabrowski had the hard time yesterday, but Nic Enright, Tim Herrin and others have had their issues as well.
Cecconi has done pretty well the first time through the order, but Fenway Park and this Red Sox offense are a real challenge. He’s allowed a .361 wOBA the second time through, including 10 homers in 162 plate appearances, and a .360 wOBA the third time through. I know the total here is 7.5 and the Red Sox have a high team total of 4.5, but I think they’ll provide the bulk of the offense here and have a good chance to tee off on Cecconi.
Pick: Red Sox 1st 5 Team Total Over 4.5 (-125)
