MLB Best Bets Today September 23

After only six teams played on Monday, it’s fair to say that the final week of the MLB regular season starts tonight. All 30 teams take the field as long as Mother Nature cooperates. There are some big series, but none bigger than my Guardians against the Tigers. So, it’s a bit of a nervous and anxious morning here, but you always want your team to be playing big games in September and that’s the case.

Quickly, while Nick Pivetta fell short of getting Over 5.5 strikeouts last night, due in large part to an unusually high walk rate that ran up his pitch count, keep those player props in mind this week. Freddy Peralta got six strikeouts to get over 200 and was pulled with 76 pitches after five innings. Also keep in mind that teams already in the playoffs may have some abbreviated outings for their starters to have them on the right turn and get a bit of a blow heading into the postseason.

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for September 23:

MLB Player Props Today (0.25 units)

I’ll be looking at some different player props based on players looking for round numbers, career-highs, etc. as the week goes along. These will be smaller risks with some potentially higher rewards. I think it is especially good to look at these where team success no longer matters as much as trying to hit these individual benchmarks, as players may get a little more selfish.

Jackson Holliday (BAL) Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+390), 1+ HR (+578)

Holliday has 17 steals (and 17 homers). I’m sure the 21-year-old would love a 20/20 season. Some of the others with a 20/20 season by 21 years of age are Jackson Chourio, Mike Trout, and Vada Pinson, who did it in 1959. I think the combination of Ryan Pepiot and catcher Hunter Feduccia are worth taking a look at this tonight as Holliday attempts to get closer.

Pepiot has allowed 26 HR in 164.2 innings and Feduccia has allowed opposing baserunners to be successful on 80% of their attempts (24/30). Pepiot just came back from a couple weeks off and allowed four runs on four hits with a 3/3 K/BB ratio in 1.2 innings of work. Holliday has a 12.7% BB% in the second half and owns a .236/.336/.410 slash for the season against RHP with a 110 wRC+.

Matt Olson (ATL) 1+ HR (+316)

Olson fell painfully short of 30 homers last season, landing on 29, going homer-less in his final seven games. This season, it seems as though he’s motivated to make amends, as he hit five homers in a span of six games from Sept. 13-17. He’s hit 22 of his 28 off of righties and Brad Lord has given up 10 of his 12 homers to left-handed hitters, who have a .477 SLG off of him.

Olson has fallen on 29 twice and 39 once in his career, so he’s had plenty of close calls. But, the Braves aren’t playing for anything but individual accomplishments, so this is one I’ll watch throughout the week and play today with a favorable matchup.

Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) 1+ HR (+391)

Another HR prop I think is worth a shot here is with Soderstrom, who has 24 dingers on the campaign. He’s hit 20 of them against RHP and gets an extreme fly ball righty here in Cristian Javier. Unfortunately, Sacramento depresses the HR odds, but I guess that’s also not a bad thing, even though Soderstrom has hit 15 of his 24 on the road. This is the first full season as a big leaguer for Soderstrom and 25 HR in his age-23 season is a great accomplishment. It just looks better than 24, right?

While he has only hit six of his 24 in the second half, he’s batting .304, so he’s been swinging a good stick. He just hasn’t had the power, mostly because he’s been using the whole field instead of pulling the ball (nearly 8%) drop in Pull%. I think he’ll get a little more aggressive and selfish this week. Javier’s career HR/FB% goes from 8.9% at home to 12.1% on the road. While it’s cooling off in a lot of places, Sacramento is not one of them, with first-pitch temps around 90. Not ideal for a fly ball guy like Javier with five Barrels allowed in his last three starts and nine runs allowed in his only two road starts this season.

Players one or two away from big “numbers” in the HR department:

• Cal Raleigh (58)
• Aaron Judge (49)
• Taylor Ward, Riley Greene (34)
• Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Pete-Crow Armstrong (29)
• Francisco Lindor, Matt Olson, Willy Adames (28)
• Teoscar Hernandez, Jorge Polanco, Ramon Laureano, Mickey Moniak, Tyler Soderstrom, Ben Rice (24)
• Christian Walker, Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis, Bobby Witt Jr. (23)
• Max Muncy, Ryan McMahon, Ronald Acuna Jr., Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Gavin Sheets, Kody Clemens, Oneil Cruz, Heliot Ramos, Geraldo Perdomo, Yainer Diaz, Logan O’Hoppe, Anthony Volpe (19)

Players away from big “numbers” in the SB department:

• Jose Caballero (48)
• Oneil Cruz (38)
• Bobby Witt Jr. (37)
• Josh Naylor, Randy Arozarena, Nico Hoerner, Julio Rodriguez (28)
• Zach McKinstry, Shohei Ohtani, Ceddanne Rafaela, Michael Harris II, Sal Frelick, Jordan Beck (19)
• Dansby Swanson, Josh Lowe, Dane Myers, Tyler Freeman, Anthony Volpe, Jackson Chourio, Matt McLain (18)

MLB Picks Today

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays (-164, 8)

7:07 p.m. ET

The Red Sox and Blue Jays start the week with a big series for both teams. Boston is still vying for a Wild Card spot and Toronto still needs to win the AL East. They’ve already clinched a postseason berth, but sit just two games up on the Yankees.

Well, Toronto is back at home now, where they’ve gone 50-25 compared to a 40-41 road record. They have to feel good about finishing off the regular season in the friendly confines of Rogers Centre. After all, they are third in wOBA at .342 and have a 121 wRC+ at home this season. Compare that to a .320 wOBA and a 104 wRC+ on the road.

Obviously you can’t just erase results, but the Jays had much starker home/road splits before they went to Coors Field in early August and scored 45 runs in a three-game series. Even with that insane outburst, the Blue Jays have scored 5.35 R/G at home and 4.53 R/G on the road. Take away those three games against the Rockies and they’ve scored 4.13 R/G in away games. But, they’re at home here and that’s what matters.

Lucas Giolito has had a nice bounce back season to say the least, as he sports a 3.46 ERA heading into the final week, but he does have a 5.00 xERA and a 4.17 FIP. It’s too late for most of that regression to hit (a playoff fade candidate?!), but he has walked 26 batters over his last 52.2 innings of work. He hadn’t walked more than eight batters in a month until August and he walked 17 that month and has already walked nine in 15 innings in September.

He just allowed four runs and walked five against the Athletics over 4.1 innings of work. Two starts ago, he allowed four runs to Arizona and walked three with just two strikeouts. He’s also allowed a 48.4% Hard Hit% over his last four starts. After missing all of last season, Giolito’s made 25 starts over 140.1 innings. I think he’s running out of gas.

Toronto went 5-1 on their last homestand and just went 3-4 on the road, scoring just 18 runs. They should be ready to hit the ground running tonight and everybody’s confidence should go up being at home.

With that in mind, there are a couple plays I like for Toronto tonight.

Picks: Blue Jays 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (+105); Lucas Giolito (BOS) Under 17.5 Outs (-137)

New York Mets (-111, 7.5) at Chicago Cubs

7:40 p.m. ET

The Cubs are spending this week getting everything in order for their postseason appearance, while the Mets are frantically trying to hold on to their chance at one. It will be David Peterson and Cade Horton in this one, and while I think the perception here is that the Mets have a lot more to play for, I do think that the Cubs will show up for Horton.

Horton, who is probably making his last regular season start, is currently the favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year. I’m not sure how much baseball players pay attention to betting odds (except for Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz) or those talking points in the media, so I don’t know if the Cubs know that Horton is the clear favorite. But, I’m sure they still want the 24-year-old to shine as much as possible.

While it is a small sample size, the Cubs do have a .321/.353/.513 slash against LHP over the last 14 days with a .368 wOBA and a 139 wRC+. For the season, they are seventh in wOBA against southpaws, so it’s been a good split for them anyway. Peterson is riding the struggle bus right now and has been for a little while.

Dating back to August 6, he has a 7.59 ERA. Sure, his 3.82 FIP and 3.67 xFIP suggest improvement on the horizon, but he hasn’t done well with runners on base, leading to a 54.5% LOB%. He’s also allowed a .371 BABIP thanks to a 45% Hard Hit%. He gave up six to the Padres last time out and has allowed 21 runs in his last 17.1 innings of work. Everybody with the Mets is feeling the pressure right now and Peterson isn’t a guy heading out there with a ton of confidence.

The Cubs are still playing for home-field advantage in the Wild Card Round with a 2.5-game lead over the Padres, so I guess that’s still a goal to strive for, especially as a team that has dropped four in a row to allow that gap to close. I just think they bounce back against a really tight Mets team and if they do have a lead for Horton, they’ll do everything that they can to protect it.

Pick: Cubs -110