MLB Best Bets Today September 9
Key Highlights:
- Royals vs. Guardians Prediction
- Brewers vs. Rangers Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs. Giants Pick
A full dance card on the diamond today, as all 30 teams are slated to take the field. We’ll only have three midweek interleague series, but six series in each of the AL and NL with some very important games in the playoff picture on the docket. I guess for those in the postseason hunt, every game is important now, as everybody in the league has fewer than 20 games to play.
Now that a lot of bettors have refilled their accounts, they’ll be looking for something to do on a night with no football, so you may be able to wait on some underdogs against heavy favorites or if you want to go against what is likely to be a popular player prop. The sportsbooks will be inundated with moneyline parlays tonight and will shift the odds to protect against those a little bit. You’ll also likely see HR props priced a bit differently than they have been.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 9:
Royals vs. Guardians Prediction (-120, 7.5)
6:40 p.m. ET
I can’t believe that I’m going to do this and back Cleveland against a left-handed pitcher, but there are a lot of concerning signs with Noah Cameron right now. The rookie southpaw has had a terrific season, posting a 3.03 ERA with a 3.67 xERA and a 4.23 FIP over his 113 innings of work. He’s now up to 145.2 innings across two levels this season, which does represent a career-high. Also, MLB innings are much more stressful and demanding than minor league frames.
I’ve been looking for spots to go against Cameron to begin with, as he has pitched to a .245 BABIP against and an 83.5% LOB%. He’s not a big strikeout merchant and that’s especially true here in the second half, where his K% has dropped to 16.2%, nearly a 5% decrease from the first half.
Cameron is still running an 80.1% LOB% in the second half, yet he owns a 4.19 ERA with a 5.05 FIP in his 43 innings of work. By BA/OBP/SLG, he’s +73, +77, +109 from the first half to the second half and +80 in the wOBA department.
There are also some concerning signs under the hood, as Cameron’s Average Arm Angle and Vertical Release Point have dropped significantly. He’s throwing more fastballs and cutters and hasn’t been throwing as many changeups and sliders, though I guess there could be some classification errors between his cutter and slider. Nevertheless, Cameron’s fastball has a xBA of .283 and a xSLG of .508, with actual numbers of .239 and .451, so he’s still due for regression there. His cutter has yielded a .297 BA and a .484 SLG, so he’s throwing objectively his two worst pitches more often.
The Guardians will be as right-handed as possible here, and righties have a .235/.306/.372 slash compared to a .165/.214/.320 slash for lefties. I think that there’s a reasonable argument to be made that Cameron, who walked five in his last start after giving up six runs in the start prior to that, is running on fumes a little bit. Also, he’s failed to get at least 16 outs in each of his last three starts.
Picks: Guardians 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-145); Noah Cameron (KC) Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-115)
Brewers vs. Rangers Prediction (-111, 8.5)
8:05 p.m. ET
Chad Patrick and Jack Leiter are the two listed starters for this one, as it is a bigger series for the Rangers than it is for the Brewers. The Brewers have a 4.5-game lead for the No. 1 seed in the NL. The Rangers are scratching and clawing for every single win to remain in the playoff hunt.
Texas is out to 27-21 in the second half and they are a team that should be seven games better than they are according to Pythagorean Win-Loss. They should have an 82-63 record. I mentioned this when backing them the other day, but their +87 run differential is tied for the third-best in the AL. They’ve been a very good team and Leiter’s breakout season has been a big reason why.
While the base numbers aren’t overly impressive with a 3.74 ERA, 4.51 xERA, and a 4.15 FIP, he seems to be figuring it out. He has a 2.66 ERA over 47.1 innings in the second half with 57 strikeouts and just a .186/.293/.291 slash with a .269 wOBA. He’s up to a 28.8% K% in the second half. He’s also allowed just a .277 wOBA at home compared to a .312 wOBA on the road. Leiter has not allowed more than three runs in a start since June 17.
Patrick is getting recalled from Triple-A for this one. He’s had a great rookie season himself with a 3.60 ERA and a 3.70 FIP in his 105 innings of work, but he’s been a victim of the numbers game, yo-yo’d back and forth between the bigs and the minors. He’s allowed seven runs on nine hits in his last two MLB starts with 10.1 innings of work. He’s had a couple of rough Triple-A outings as well.
I’ll simply take my shot on the Rangers here in a coin flip game. Leiter may have a higher ceiling than Patrick and Texas has more to play for and is probably a bit more engaged right now.
Pick: Rangers -111
Diamondbacks vs. Giants Prediction (-145, 7.5)
9:45 p.m. ET
Maybe I’m the idiot, but I’m shocked to see the 1st 5 moneyline for the Diamondbacks priced better than the full-game moneyline. Relief pitching has always been a strength of the Giants and, theoretically, they’ll have a lead to protect based on where this line sits with Robbie Ray on the hill against Zac Gallen.
I’m scared to declare that Gallen is “back”, but he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since September 27 and has worked six shutout innings in each of his last two starts, shutting down the Dodgers and Rangers. After a disastrous first half, Gallen owns a 3.40 ERA in the second half and has shaved over 60 points off of his wOBA against and nearly 100 off of his SLG against.
He’s peaking at the right time with free agency on the horizon, and maybe not getting traded at the Trade Deadline gave him a little peace of mind. In any event, he’s on a heater and Ray is on the opposite.
The veteran southpaw may just be running on fumes. He’s got a 4.89 ERA in the second half over 49.2 innings of work. His BA/OBP/SLG first half to second half splits are +59, +63, +114, and his wOBA is 72 points higher against. His K% has also dropped dramatically from 26.8% to 19.9%. The velo is still just fine, but he hasn’t been able to really find his command.
Ray is up to 168.2 innings this season after barely pitching in 2024 and 2023, so I can’t help but think that this workload is just catching up with him. The Diamondbacks are seventh in wOBA against LHP over the last 14 days and I think they’ll be able to get to Ray.
Pick: Diamondbacks 1st 5 (+124)
